US midterms: 3 days to go – What latest polls say as early voting surges

With three days to go before the US midterm elections, Democrats are leading national polls as millions of Americans cast their ballots early.

Key points

• In Texas, Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico were focusing their final campaign efforts on Houston, according to Al Jazeera's Lavelle.
• Early voting additionally climbed by more than 30 percent compared with the same period in 2022 in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, according to the AP analysis.
• While Marshall has 45 percent, an Emerson College poll suggests that Hamilton is leading with 49 percent backing.
• Expectations were much closer for the Senate, with 39 percent expecting a Democratic majority and 36 percent a Republican one.
• That's almost 10 million more than at the same point before the 2022 midterms, with some of the biggest increases recorded in states having competitive Senate races.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has confirmed he will carry on with his campaigns in Kansas and Iowa as both parties create their final push ahead of Election Day on Tuesday. Here is what you need to know. What do the US midterm polls say?

According to RealClearPolling's latest national congressional ballot average, Democrats still lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points. Democrats lead by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent.

Notably, a separate Economist/YouGov survey published on Thursday identified that 44 percent of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House of Representatives after the election, compared with 31 percent who expect Republicans to retain control.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, informed Al Jazeera that the Democratic lead in national polling suggests a different picture for the two chambers.

"A big Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats, " Kondik remarked.

"However, that does not mean the Senate is going to flip – it certainly could, but it is much more up in the air." How plenty of Americans have already voted?

According to an Associated Press analysis published on Friday, more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots five days before Election Day.

In Texas, more than 6.3 million individuals had voted early as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point in 2022, an rise of 50 percent.

Al Jazeera's Phil Lavelle documented from Houston on Friday that voters were continuing to arrive at polling stations as the state's early voting period was drawing to a close.

In Georgia, more than 2.5 million ballots had been cast by Friday morning, surpassing the 2.3 million recorded during the early voting period in 2022, according to Al Jazeera's Matthew Torres.

Torres documented long queues at an Atlanta polling station and more participation among young voters.

"We all just really want a better future for everyone, especially like the next generation, " one young voter informed Al Jazeera.

Another young voter pointed to social media as a reason for the rose interest in the election. "Definitely social media. Social media and the media has put voting in the limelight, " the voter remarked.

Democratic political strategist Celinda Lake remarked numerous voters were looking for change.

"You got a lot of voters who say, 'I'm going to do a Hail Mary for change, but I hope you do something, '" she remarked.

Nevertheless, early turnout figures don't show which candidates voters have chosen or what the final results will be. What's happened on the campaign trail previously 24 hours?

Trump reversed his decision to cancel two weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa, with the White House confirming that both events would go ahead on Sunday.

In practice, the rallies had been cancelled on Thursday, with the White House saying Trump would instead take part in almost 20 telephone campaign events.

But less than a day afterwards, the president put the rallies back in his schedule.

Al Jazeera's Tanya Nouri documented that Trump's campaign team sees his personal appearances as a way to mobilise Republican voters.

"He is energised to go back and rally in person on Sunday, " Nouri remarked, quoting her campaign sources.

According to She additionally, trump's team believes his appearances have a stimulating effect on Republican supporters, especially in states where the Republicans are running for Senate seats against solid opposition.

Trump additionally campaigned in Florida on Friday, where Republicans are defending Senate and gubernatorial seats.

"You obtained to vote. Bad things happen when you obtain too confident, right? So let's pretend they're one point down, " Trump informed the rally crowd.

Meanwhile, in Texas, Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico were focusing their final campaign efforts on Houston, according to Al Jazeera's Lavelle.

As early voting drew to a close, paxton cancelled an event in El Paso to concentrate on Harris County, Texas's most populous county.

On Friday, former President Bill Clinton campaigned for the Democratic Party in Mississippi. He additionally called on individuals to vote.

"I can't tell you how many people I care for that have lost in Mississippi because of those who did not vote at all, " Clinton remarked. Where will Trump and the Democrats campaign this weekend?

Trump is scheduled to hold back-to-back rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. In Iowa, he is projected to backing Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, and afterwards travel to Kansas, where he will campaign with Senator Roger Marshall.

Recent polls have shown competitive Senate races in traditionally Republican states. In Kansas, Marshall faces a tough race against his Democratic challenger, megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton.

While Marshall has 45 percent, an Emerson College poll suggests that Hamilton is leading with 49 percent backing. Democrats are additionally making their final appeals to voters. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear will join Ohio governor candidate Amy Acton at a campaign event.

Democrat Senate nominee for Alaska Mary Peltola is additionally anticipated to attend a rally in Bethel, Alaska.

Alaska's Senate race is one of seven key toss-ups that will probable decide whether Republicans keep their majority in Congress's upper chamber.

Meanwhile, the race has been complicated by a dispute involving two candidates named Dan Sullivan. Trump has accused Democrats of recruiting an independent candidate with the same name as the Republican senator to confuse voters and draw backing away from him.

While Peltola has denied involvement in the alleged recruitment effort, the Department of Justice has taken legal action over the dispute.

Separately, Republican candidate Mike Rogers is additionally anticipated to campaign with House Speaker Mike Johnson over the weekend.

Taken together, the developments around US midterms: 3 days to go – What latest polls say as point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.