Are Houthis using Russian satellites as Saudi Arabia fends off strikes?

Meanwhile, an investigation has made public that Russian satellites are assisting the Iran-aligned Houthis to strike Saudi Arabia's military and energy infrastructure, further upending global energy markets against the backdrop of the US war on Iran.

Key points

• Since seizing Yemen's capital, Sanaa, and swaths of northwest Yemen in 2014, the Houthis have demanded to be recognised as the legitimate governing authority in Yemen.
• Last week, the Saudi Foreign Ministry's deputy minister for public diplomacy, Rayed Krimly, remarked to journalists that the Houthis receive intelligence from Russia and China.
• An October 21 attack on King Fahd International airport in Dammam additionally killed two residents and wounded eight.
• With fighting for control of Yemen between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni administration continuing, how significant is Russia's backing to the Houthis?
• "The September attacks against Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline illustrate the sophistication of the targeting problem, " he remarked.

Hostilities between the internationally recognised Yemeni administration. It is backed by Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis have been ongoing since July and escalated in September when the rebel group seized full control of Yemen's Red Sea coast.

Last month, the Houthis additionally carried out a precision strike on pumping stations on Saudi Arabia's most notable oil pipeline, the East-West pipeline. An investigation by Geneva-based private firm AURORAH GeoSignal Intelligence made public that Russian satellites had been surveying the region days in advance to gather intelligence concerning the pipeline.

With fighting for control of Yemen between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni administration continuing, how significant is Russia's backing to the Houthis? Why can't Saudi Arabia, the most powerful of the Gulf states that is backed by the US, hold back a group of rebel fighters? Here's what we know. What did the investigation into the employ of Russian satellites show?

As made public by The Associated Press news agency this week, between July 1 and October 19, AURORAH Geosignal Intelligence examined 40 missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Houthis and, in every case, identified a pattern of Russian administration and military satellites observing the targeted areas both before and after the attacks.

Nawaf Obaid, founder of the geosignal intelligence firm, informed Al Jazeera that by reconstructing Russia's military reconnaissance architecture, the group had identified individual satellites, calculated their orbital trajectories and then established observation opportunities and correlated their activity with military developments throughout Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Yemen.

He remarked the satellites they identified include Russia's Bars-M military mapping satellites, Persona optical reconnaissance satellites, Lotos-S1 electronic intelligence satellites, Pion-NKS maritime reconnaissance systems and Kondor-FKA radar-imaging satellites. They additionally examined the EKS/Tundra infrared early-warning constellation.

"The critical finding was not the presence of individual Russian satellites, but the sequencing and integration of their complementary intelligence capabilities, " he remarked.

Obaid additionally confirmed to Al Jazeera that based on the findings, "Russian military geospatial and signals intelligence has supported the Iranian-led intelligence architecture assisting Houthi operations in Yemen."

He remarked the strongest operational example of this has been the Houthi offensive along Yemen's western coast towards Bab al-Mandeb, where Russian-derived intelligence, Iranian command integration and local human intelligence all contributed to "the rapid deterioration of opposing Yemeni forces' battlefield coordination".

"We assess that this intelligence relationship is additionally relevant to Houthi missile and drone targeting against Saudi Arabia. Russian military reconnaissance provides capabilities far beyond ordinary commercial satellite imagery, particularly when optical, radar and electronic intelligence are integrated, " he remarked.

"The September attacks against Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline illustrate the sophistication of the targeting problem, " he remarked. That was when three pumping stations – PS8 at Afif, PS9 at Al-Dhekra and PS11 at Al-Mesba'ah – were struck within the pipeline's "critical high-elevation western section".

"Their selection reflected an understanding of the infrastructure's engineering vulnerabilities and strategic importance, " he explained. How significant are these findings?

Brussels-based military analyst Elijah Magnier remarked AURORA's findings don't necessarily show the whole picture.

"Inability to intercept an intelligence transmission doesn't establish who had access to the Russian satellite information, whether Russia deliberately shared it, or whether Iran obtained it independently, " he remarked, adding that for this, there are four feasible scenarios. "First, Russia could have deliberately shared information with Iran, " he remarked.

"The second is Iran obtained Russian satellite imagery through commercial channels. Nevertheless, the Russian military's reconnaissance imagery is generally not publicly accessible, so the commercial Russian imagery would not necessarily establish Russian administration involvement, " he observed.

"The third is Iran obtained information through another intermediary, so a third party could theoretically have supplied the intelligence originated from the Russian system, and there is no currently publicly verified evidence establishing such an arrangement, " he continued.

But Obaid highlighted that distinguishing a Russian-supported intelligence architecture from proof that a particular Russian satellite supplied the targeting data for an individual Houthi strike is essential.

"Our assessment establishes the wider intelligence relationship; attribution of specific satellite-derived intelligence to individual missile launches requires additional corroboration, " he remarked.

As well as a private intelligence analyst, confirmed to The Associated Press that the Houthis and other Iranian allies have benefitted from Russian intelligence, as well as Chinese capabilities, three authorities, including one from Saudi Arabia and another in the top ranks of the Houthis.

"We do discuss these matters regularly with China and Russia, and we will continue to do so, " he had remarked.

How significant is access to Russian satellites for Iran and the Houthis?

Russian authorities have not yet commented on AURORAH's findings, but over recent years, technological and military ties between Russia and Iran have deepened significantly, anchored by joint strategic agreements, space cooperation, and the exchange of defence technology.

Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst on Yemen at the International Crisis Group, remarked Moscow reportedly supporting Tehran's allies like the Houthis is particularly significant as it would mean a shift in the trajectory of the Yemeni conflict.

"It is increasingly moving beyond its domestic dimensions and becoming intertwined with wider regional dynamics. Supporting the Houthis is no longer a matter of interest to Iran alone. We are now seeing other actors, particularly Russia, providing Iran with intelligence backing and sophisticated weaponry, from which the Houthis are additionally benefitting, " he informed Al Jazeera.

"The question is whether this backing is being channelled directly to the Houthis or indirectly through Iran. I don't think that distinction is significant. The bottom line is that the Houthis are benefitting from increasingly diversified external backing involving a number of countries, " he continued.

But Nagi cautioned that Russian backing to the Houthis has implications for both the Yemeni administration and Saudi Arabia.

"Russia's role additionally extends into the diplomatic arena, where Moscow has taken positions at the United Nations Security Council opposing stronger international action against the Houthis. Taken together, these developments point to a broader expansion of Russian engagement with the group, " he continued. Where have the Houthis struck in Saudi Arabia?

Since fighting escalated over the summer, yemen's Houthis have attacked multiple locations throughout Saudi Arabia, spanning from the eastern and western coasts to the capital and southern regions.

In an official note on X on Friday, Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree asserted attacks have hit vital commercial and military infrastructure. It spanned Saudi Arabia from its east and west coasts to Riyadh and the southern region of Najran.

Saree remarked the Houthis targeted the Ras Tanura oil refinery with a ballistic missile, an Aramco facility in Abqaiq with a missile, King Khalid International airport in Riyadh with multiple missiles, King Fahd International airport in Dammam with a drone, the Rabigh oil refinery with a ballistic missile and a Saudi military headquarters in the Najran region. There has, nevertheless, been no independent corroboration of these specific claims.

Nevertheless, Houthi attacks generally have resulted in multiple deaths and injuries in Saudi Arabia. A severe strike on King Khalid International airport in Riyadh earlier this month killed at least 12 individuals and injured 300, according to Saudi office-holders. The attacks led to the airport's temporary closure, forcing the postponement of Saudi Arabia's flagship investment conference until 2027 and disrupting travel intends for thousands of passengers.

In practice, the airport has since reopened, and flights resumed on Sunday with the Houthis warning travellers to avoid the facility, calling it a "military target".

For context, an October 21 attack on King Fahd International airport in Dammam additionally killed two residents and wounded eight. Why are the Houthis so well-armed?

After taking the capital and state institutions, the Houthis gained access to sizeable arsenals belonging to the Yemeni military and formed an alliance with forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The internationally recognised administration decamped to Aden.

Once regarded as an armed group without plenty of resources, analysts say this has changed since the Houthis seized Yemen state arsenals, received external backing from Iran, and evolved their military capabilities.

Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, informed Al Jazeera that besides learning the art of weapons assembly, the Houthis have scoured international black markets for components and carried out numerous military engagements to unearth a clandestine, but robust, market for sales, too.

"So while the Houthis have been expending their cache of weapons, they have been developing and expanding too – and we have seen that with their long-range missile attacks as far away as Israel – so targeting high-value targets in Saudi Arabia in contrast is very easy pickings for them, " he remarked.

In short, are Houthis using Russian satellites as Saudi Arabia fends off strikes? Is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.