Democrats won big. Curbing Trump’s global agenda may prove tough

Democrats won major. Curbing Trump's global agenda may prove tough Foreign policy may have been a winner for Democrats in the midterms, but experts say they have limited options to impact Trump's intends.

Key points

• National Security Council from 2015 to 2016, in a recent podcast for the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based think tank.
• Has backed Israel in the Iran war and, indirectly, half a dozen other fronts from Lebanon to Yemen where Israel is engaged in kinetic warfare.
• President Donald Trump remarked he would go to war with Iran again when asked whether it was worth Republicans' midterm losses.
• The massive result for Democrats might set the stage for a agreement to end the Iran war, both in Washington and Tehran.
• As voters left polling sites during the 2026 midterm elections, they shared a range of problems that motivated their votes.

LONDON – The Democrats' sweep of both houses of Congress means that President Donald Trump's domestic legislative intends for the final two years of his presidency could be constrained.

But on the foreign policy front, Trump enjoys wide latitude to create unilateral decisions. His overseas actions from Iran to Venezuela have largely taken place by executive order. Congress could restrict funding and block appointments, but it would struggle to prevent his every sudden move, foreign policy analysts say.

What does that mean for Trump's international agenda? "I'd expect more pressure where he thinks the domestic costs are manageable, " remarked Robert Muggah, cofounder of Canada-based geopolitical risk and security consultancy SecDev Group and the Igarapé Institute, a Brazil-based think tank. "That could mean everything from fresh trade threats against partners to limited military action in Latin America (all under the anti-cartel banner)." New political landscape. Trump gets stinging midterms rebuke. Democrats dominate: Key moments from midterms.

Here's a look at how the shift in congressional power could impact what the White House does overseas.

As higher global oil rates trickled down to spiking consumer gas costs, trump himself acknowledged on Tuesday night that the war with Iran was partially to blame for his Republican party's rebuke by voters in the midterm elections. In the run-up to the vote, Trump declined to rule out a major resumption of combat operations against Iran after the elections. He additionally stated he was content to have "discussions" with Iran to "see how that all works out."

"The reality is the U.S. Has been stuck strategically in the war in Iran since the early days of the war, " remarked Cole Bucy, a former CIA analyst who served as director for Iran at the U.S. National Security Council from 2015 to 2016, in a recent podcast for the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based think tank. Despite midterm losses, President Trump notes he'd do Iran war again.

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Bucy remarked Trump ceased short of more escalation in Iran ahead of the midterms since of its impact on global energy costs and its downstream impact on the U.S. Economy. He believes Iran escalation is now more probable as Trump will be less concerned regarding angry voters at the polls due to gas costs and a bumpy stock market. Still, Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, a London-based Iran expert, disagreed with that assessment.

"The massive result for Democrats might set the stage for a agreement to end the Iran war, both in Washington and Tehran. The risk of major military escalation has diminished, " Batmanghelidj wrote on X. "Hegseth is totally discredited and will be forced to resign before the Democrats come in and impeach him, " he remarked of the U.S. Defense secretary.

Trump's combative trade policies that imposed steep tariffs on dozens of countries worldwide for allies and foes alike ultimately raised rates for American consumers.

Ryan Hass, an expert on China at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, remarked he expects the president to "show unrelenting activism, testing the outer limits of his authority as he looks for leverage to bend other countries to his will. He will probably not shy away from congressional criticism or legal battles over his trade activism, viewing them as the cost of expanding his presidential power." Rising costs and global backlash. How Trump's tariffs hit Americans.

Hass additionally stated he expects Trump to continue to wage trade "battles" as a way to shift the narrative away from "potential congressional investigations into his actions, those of his family and his administration."

And like the war in Iran, trade policy is another area where Trump can act without congressional approval.

Trump has blown hot and cold on his backing for Ukraine as it battles Russia's war of aggression. He has oscillated between a frosty reception for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – who he blames, without evidence, for prolonging the war – and warm words for Russian President Vladimir Putin. This person he claims to like.

Trump has gradually eased sanctions on Russia and reduced military aid for Ukraine over the objection of Democrats. Though Trump's veto powers could blunt that, with both chambers controlled by the Democrats, there could be a fresh opportunity for lawmakers to put rose backing for Ukraine back on the agenda.

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Muggah, the geopolitical risk expert, remarked Trump could additionally renew his push for a Ukraine peace settlement with Russia that could come over European objections since it might heavily favor Putin.

"A headline-grabbing deal with an adversary could serve the same political purpose as a show of force, " he remarked.

There was muted reaction in Moscow. "We sincerely hope that he will continue his peacekeeping efforts, " Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, remarked of Trump. Zelenskyy has not commented.

Before the votes were even cast, Trump surprised plenty of in Israel and the broader national security establishment by announcing that the U.S. Would stop providing weapons funding to Israel at the end of the year. Trump remarked the move followed a agreement he struck with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu, who is in the middle of his own battle to stay on as prime minister, has yet to comment on that. Still, it's not immediately clear what funds Trump was referring to. A U.S.-Israel memorandum of understanding that provides $3.8 billion a year in military assistance to Israel expires at the end of 2028. Election anxiety. Some Israelis to consider exit – for good.

After the vote, numerous Israeli media outlets observed that the outcome of the midterms reflected, in part, what appeared to be little appetite for prolonged war in the Middle East. The U.S. Has backed Israel in the Iran war and, indirectly, half a dozen other fronts from Lebanon to Yemen where Israel is engaged in kinetic warfare.

Hady Amr, a Middle East and North Africa fellow at Chatham House, a London think tank, remarked the Democrats' control of Congress could mean their committees will hold hearings on settlement expansion and violence in the occupied West Bank, scrutinize U.S. Arms sales to Israel, demand administration briefings and apply appropriations to press the White House. But Trump's policy toward Israel and Palestinians not be "transformed, " he remarked. A potential black swan after a blue wave.

When the U.S. Introduced a mission in January to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and brought him to New York to face various charges including alleged torture and drug-trafficking, it followed a steady buildup of U.S. Forces near Venezuela, heated rhetoric and U.S. Strikes against alleged drug trafficking boats. But the action still surprised the world. Castro heir wants a Trump accord. His exclusive first US interview.

For different reasons, Trump and his hawkish – when it comes to Cuba – Secretary of State Marco Rubio may catch the world off-guard again as they continue to threaten an island that sits 90 miles off the Florida coast: Cuba.

Since the start of the year, the United States has imposed an oil embargo that has brought it to the brink of humanitarian collapse. For months, Trump and Rubio have spoken regarding how they want to see political and economic change on the communist-run island. Trump has referenced a potential "friendly takeover." But the Pentagon has additionally drawn up military aims for different scenarios involving Cuba. One of them is a Maduro-style snatch of Cuba's leaders.

Kim Hjelmgaard is an investigative journalist covering global stories for USA TODAY, from living rooms to conflict zones. Follow him on X: @khjelmgaard. Contributing: USA TODAY Pentagon and world affairs reporter Miles J. Herszenhorn. SMS Facebook Twitter Email. Share your feedback to support improve our site! Share your feedback to support improve our site!

For now, democrats won big. Curbing Trumps global agenda may prove tough remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.