Major construction ongoing near Iran missile bases, satellite images suggest

ByShayan Sardarizadeh, Benedict Garman and Matt Murphy, BBC Verify.

Key points

• The images from Karaj appear to show "a new portal for an underground facility", notes Sam Lair, research analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).
• The excavations near Shahroud could potentially be related to the production of missiles, remarked Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst who focused on Iran.
• The developments come after repeated assurances from the White House that US-Israeli attacks have depleted the Iranian armed forces.
• Back in August, state TV footage additionally maintained to show Khordad surface-to-air missiles emerging out of a tunnel near the southern city of Bandar Abbas.
• The construction work is unlikely to be part of an effort to deceive foreign intelligence agencies, remarked Sean O'Connor, an analyst with the intelligence firm Janes.

Iran appears to be undertaking significant new construction near at least two of its major missile sites and repairing bases damaged by months of US and Israeli air strikes, analysis of satellite images suggests.

Evidence of digging and new buildings are visible in satellite imagery taken in November at the Garmdareh military base in Karaj near the capital Tehran and the Shahroud base in the north, analysts at British intelligence firm MAIAR. This person reviewed the photos, informed BBC Verify.

At least 12 other military sites, including missile complexes and air bases, appear to show signs of repairs. While damaged buildings and debris have been cleared at the Parchin military complex – which has been repeatedly repaired despite a succession of air strikes – east of the capital, new roofs have been built on destroyed buildings at the Kermanshah missile base in western Iran, near the border with Iraq.

Notably, the excavations near Shahroud could potentially be related to the production of missiles, remarked Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst who focused on Iran. He remarked that as the nearby air base at Shahroud has been targeted multiple times over recent years, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is probably trying to find ways to move its production facilities underground.

According to A MAIAR analyst, iran has "a pattern of moving infrastructure underground to protect them from further strikes". Mark Mellett, a defence analyst and former head of the Irish military, remarked the construction of underground facilities had the went on benefit of making it "harder for outside observers to assess the extent and operational status".

Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that the US could resume attacks on Iran after the midterm elections held earlier this week. But on Wednesday Vice-President JD Vance cited the war's unpopularity with voters for the Republicans' poor performance in this week's poll, saying that it may have cost his party control of the Senate "for the next 6 years".

At multiple bases nationwide, Iranian forces have focused on carrying-out small-scale repairs to complexes which have been heavily damaged by air strikes since the start of the US-Israeli war.

According to Analysts, satellite images appear to show that significant construction has been completed at the Taleghan 2 facility at the Parchin military complex, with damaged buildings levelled and the aftermath of attacks on an underground bunker repaired and reinforced with concrete.

At Karaj and Shahroud, satellite images appear to show significant excavation. While improvements appear to have been carried out to the nearby airbase, at Karaj, multiple vehicles were visible in satellite images.

Meanwhile, the images from Karaj appear to show "a new portal for an underground facility", notes Sam Lair, research analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). It has looked extensively into recent developments at Iranian sites.

Notably, the construction work is unlikely to be part of an effort to deceive foreign intelligence agencies, remarked Sean O'Connor, an analyst with the intelligence firm Janes. He remarked such a project "would be costly and may achieve little".

Notably, the developments come after repeated assurances from the White House that US-Israeli attacks have depleted the Iranian armed forces. It US President Donald Trump dismissed as a "complete and total mess".

According to A Pentagon spokesperson previously, the US had "destroyed up to 90% of Iran's drone, ballistic missile, and naval industrial base" and "significantly degraded" the country's ability to launch drone and missile attacks.

But Iran claims it retains sizeable stockpiles of missiles, and footage broadcast on state TV this week maintained to show dozens of missiles at the entrance to an underground facility in southern Iran. Back in August, state TV footage additionally maintained to show Khordad surface-to-air missiles emerging out of a tunnel near the southern city of Bandar Abbas.

Meanwhile, a MAIAR analyst additionally identified new construction and excavations outside tunnel entrances near the city of Qom, close to the Fordo underground uranium enrichment complex. It has been bombed by both the US and Israel multiple times.

Activity related to military assets would show that Tehran is bracing itself for further attacks by the US and Israel, remarked Mark Cancian, a military analyst with International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

"The purpose is to better defend itself against future attacks, " he remarked. "It also indicates a priority on rebuilding military capability rather than rehabilitating the economy." What do you want BBC Verify to investigate?

Taken together, the developments around major construction ongoing near Iran missile bases, satellite images suggest point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.