Four things we learned this week about 2028 White House race

ByBernd Debusmann Jr White House reporter. Updated 2 hours ago.

Key points

• Georgia Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff won by a sizeable margin in the politically competitive state that Trump won in 2024.
• Vice-President's JD Vance's reflection on where the midterms went wrong for Republicans has been interpreted as him paving the way for a 2028 run.
• Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was blunt in his assessment: "The Trump era is over."
• Ballots are still being counted in the US midterm elections but the political landscape is already pivoting to the 2028 White House race.
• Another potential Democratic nominee, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, swept aside his Republican challenger.

Buoyed by major gains in Congress, Democrats will have momentum as they prepare for the contest to succeed President Donald Trump.

But a good showing in the midterms does not guarantee a White House win two years afterwards. Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012 despite massive Republican gains in 2010.

No one has yet entered the presidential race but potential candidates will be preparing behind the scenes.

In practice, the results of Tuesday's election and the historic size of Democratic gains could shape the White House race in a number of ways. Here are four takeaways. 1. Major winners in the midterms now have momentum.

Notably, a number of prominent potential presidential candidates were running in the 2026 midterms – and some emerged looking robust.

While he has previously remarked he has no aims to run for president, his successful campaign, with a number of viral moments, assisted boost his national profile.

Shapiro has not committed to a 2028 run but analysts point to his broad appeal in swing-state Pennsylvania as a sign that he could be competitive on the national stage.

Illinois Governor JB Pritzker additionally won after a campaign pundits in his state described as a "tune-up" for a presidential run.

California Governor Gavin Newsom could not run for re-election in the midterms but he is invested in the outcome of a ballot initiative to tax the state's wealthy residents which he campaigned against.

On the Republican side, there were two potential 2028 names running in Arkansas.

Republican Senator Tom Cotton and Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders – a one-time Trump administration press secretary – were able to stay in office by a narrower margin than before, both earning just above half of the votes in the conservative state. Trump names Stephen Miller as new chief of staff.

What Democrats can and can't do with their new power after taking Congress. 2. JD Vance and Trump's allies under pressure.

Exit polls suggest the swing against Republicans was partly due to anger felt by voters at the actions of the Trump administration.

That could present a challenge to his potential successors who come from the ranks of the current leadership, including Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

"The one person who has been hurt badly by this election campaign is Vance, " remarked Karen Beckwith, a professor of political science at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio.

Vance has already sought to distance himself from defeat – and from a foreign policy adventure in Iran that was politically disastrous for his party. "The reason we lost is the war, " he wrote on X.

Rubio has denied reports he is considering leaving his post ahead of a 2028 presidential run.

Other feasible Republican candidates may benefit from not being part of the administration. Some have been staking out a position on what went wrong and what next.

In a lengthy post on X, Senator Ted Cruz. This person was not running this year, remarked that too numerous Republican politicians seem like "they didn't care" regarding the economic matters faced by voters.

"It is dark right now, but it is always darkest before the dawn, and morning is coming, " he wrote. "That is my fervent prayer, and that is my commitment to you."

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. This person abandoned his 2024 presidential run after being trounced by Trump early on, was similarly critical and pointed to Republican victories in Florida as a sign of what can be accomplished.

White House denies Hegseth and Rubio to leave jobs after Republican election losses. Vance walks Trump tightrope with scathing election critique blaming Iran war. 3. Left and centre Democrats in fight for future.

Both the centrist and left wings of the Democratic Party have asserted victory from the results as each side sifts through feasible 2028 contenders.

Dozens are already making moves, Obama's former adviser Jim Messina has informed the BBC.

El-Sayed's win in Michigan was a breakthrough moment for left-wing Democrats since he triumphed in a swing state.

His supporters now claim his win could supercharge left-wing candidates in the 2028 election.

"The old notions of electability are out the door, and bold economist populist outsiders proved they can win in battleground states, " remarked Adam Green, the co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.

Green continued that the "water is now warm" for candidates such as New York Democratic representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to run in presidential primaries and "know that they can win."

Moderate Democrats, nevertheless, maintained victories nationwide, with the "Blue Dog Caucus" of moderate and conservative Democrats gaining at least 14 seats in Congress, almost doubling its current size.

This has led plenty of within that wing of the party to conclude that centrist candidates that bill themselves as pragmatic and willing to work with conservatives could woo Republican voters.

Given the success of Democratic candidates who focused on cost of living problems, an economy-first approach will probable be a focus again in two years.

Amirah Siquierah, the director of federal affairs at the Working Families Party, remarked successful candidates in 2028 will combine economic populism with newer worries such as data centres. Dozens of Democrats eyeing 2028 presidential run, notes former Obama aide. 4. Backing of Hispanic voters must be earned.

Both parties must contend with a changing political map and a shifting coalition of backing for 2028.

Once "safe" Republican parts of the country can no longer be considered conservative strongholds.

For now, four things we learned this week about 2028 White House race remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.