Sweet turns bitter as 20 per cent increase in sugar prices ahead of festive season
NEW DELHI: Sugar rates in the country are rapidly increasing due to speculation concerning its record-low stocks and the approaching festive season.
NEW DELHI: Sugar rates in the country are rapidly increasing due to speculation concerning its record-low stocks and the approaching festive season.
Article outline
- What happened
- The key numbers
- Why it matters
- The bottom line
Key points
- The year-end sugar stock for this sugar season (October 2025 – September 2026) is projected to be a record low.
- The retail cost of sugar has climbed from Rs 52 to around Rs 62 over the past 12 days, representing a rise of 19-21%.
- Nevertheless, the administration had lately assured sufficient quantities of sugar availability and issued an order to impose stockholding limits on sugar dealers nationwide till November 30, 2026.
- Out of this, 28 LMT was diverted for ethanol production, leaving 280 LMT for domestic consumption.
- Per month consumption of sugar required in the country is around 24 LMT.
In practice, the retail cost of sugar has climbed from Rs 52 to around Rs 62 over the past 12 days, representing a rise of 19-21%. Market analysts predict that the rates will continue to rise over the next few days, raising worries for the administration regarding domestic sugar supplies and pricing.
Lower production, combined with the allowance of sugar exports and the diversion of sugarcane-based feedstock toward ethanol production, are major factors contributing to cost rise.
Meanwhile, the year-end sugar stock for this sugar season (October 2025 – September 2026) is projected to be a record low. The stock on September 30 is projected to be around 32 lakh metric tonnes (LMT), significantly below the normal required stock of 60 LMT. This would mark the lowest closing stock since 2010. In comparison, last season's sugar availability at the end of the year was 47 LMT.
Meanwhile, per month consumption of sugar required in the country is around 24 LMT. For the current sugar season, the industry had projected a total production of 342 LMT. Based on this projection, the administration allowed sugar exports for the current season, permitting a total of 20 LMT of sugar to be exported in two phases. Nevertheless, actual production has fallen short, registering only 308 LMT.
Out of this, 28 LMT was diverted for ethanol production, leaving 280 LMT for domestic consumption. Upon realising the lower production figures, the administration imposed a ban on sugar exports in May, by which time 8 LMT had already been exported.
"There is significant speculation in the market regarding the quantity of sugar available at the end of the sugar season among traders and the industry. Nobody knows the exact amount of sugar available. It is fuelling rising rates, " stated a market expert.
According to They further, the industry body misled the administration regarding projected higher production, which led to the allowance of exports and diversion for ethanol.
Taken together, the developments around sweet turns bitter as 20 per cent increase in sugar prices ahead point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.
