AUKUS only works if Britain’s submarine town does

On July 29, Prime Minister Andy Burnham confirmed £8.4 billion for Dreadnought, including £5.9 billion for BAE and £2.5 billion for the wider supply chain and apprenticeships.

Key points

• The first comes between the Collins-class submarines and Virginia-class submarines in the early 2030s.
• Burnham notes British capital should be spent on British workers, firms and skills in places written off for 40 years.
• Burnham 's appointment of John Healey – the former defense secretary – as the chancellor, has cheered Australian authorities.
• Australia's interim options include rotating British Astute-class submarines through waters around Australia and acquiring second-hand U.S.
• As the report notes, the Commons report notes the Royal Navy's Astute fleet is the smallest the U.K.

Burnham 's appointment of John Healey – the former defense secretary – as the chancellor, has cheered Australian authorities. "That shows to me that they're putting defense and national security at the heart of their economic agenda as well as their defense agenda, " remarked James Paterson, the shadow defense minister. This person is at the heart of debates concerning AUKUS accountability.

Barrow's local challenges translate into military risk through the gaps in Australia's submarine capability.

Paterson has identified two potential gaps in Australia's submarine capability that need planning.

For context, the first comes between the Collins-class submarines and Virginia-class submarines in the early 2030s. The second comes between the Virginias and SSN-AUKUS in the early 2040s.

Australia's interim options include rotating British Astute-class submarines through waters around Australia and acquiring second-hand U.S. Virginia-class submarines in the early 2030s.

As the report notes, the Commons report notes the Royal Navy's Astute fleet is the smallest the U.K. Has had in decades: In the first half of 2024, none of the five Astute-class boats completed an operational deployment.

Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow specializing in sea power at Royal United Services Institute, informed POLITICO a deployment to Australia would stretch it to the limits of its capacity.

"What I don't want to see is fatalism, " Paterson remarked. "These are solvable challenges. As long as we are honest and realistic regarding it now.", we've obtained time to secure this right.

In practice, the U.K. Is designing and building its own SSN-AUKUS boats before Australia builds its fleet.

That front-loads risk onto Britain and gives the U.K. A powerful incentive to obtain the program right for its own national security.

Burnham notes British capital should be spent on British workers, firms and skills in places written off for 40 years. Conroy supports this effort, seeing a stronger British yard as part of northern Britain's economic rejuvenation. It will ultimately benefit Australia.

Taken together, the developments around AUKUS only works if Britain's submarine town does point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.