Japan’s economy slows, missing growth forecasts

Japan’s economy slowed in the second quarter of the year amid moribund consumption and capital spending, according to official figures.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.3 percent in the April-June period from the first quarter, data issued by Japan’s Cabinet Office on Monday showed.

It was the third consecutive expansion but was down from 0.5 percent expansion in the previous quarter and missed the 0.5 percent growth analysts had forecast.

On an annualised basis, the world’s fourth-largest economy expanded 1.1 percent.

A survey of 37 economists conducted by the Japan Center for Economic Research, a think tank, had forecast an annualised expansion of 1.67 percent.

Private consumption was flat in real terms while capital expenditures fell 1.2 percent, or 4.6 percent on an annualised basis, offsetting robust exports, according to the data.

Broken down by component, net exports contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth while domestic demand accounted for negative 0.2 percent.

Norihiro Yamaguchi, lead economist for Japan at Oxford Economics, stated he expected expansion to be sluggish in the second half of 2026 as companies pass rising energy costs on to consumers.

“Although AI-related goods exports will continue to stay robust in the near term, sluggish non-AI-related global economic activities will limit overall export gains,” Yamaguchi noted in a note to clients.

Japan imports almost all of its crude oil needs, leaving it exposed to elevated energy costs stemming from the fallout of the United States-Israel war on Iran.