List of Democrats Who Beat AIPAC-Supported Foes—Can They Win Midterm?

Democratic primary voters this cycle have defied one of Washington's most influential political organizations in a number of primary races, delivering a series of victories to candidates running against rivals backed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and its affiliated organizations.

Key points

• In New York's 13th Congressional District, progressive Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated five-term Representative Adriano Espaillat in the June Democratic primary, winning 49.4 percent of the vote to Espaillat's 45.9 percent.
• A May Reuters/Ipsos poll discovered Israel's favorability rating among Democrats had fallen from 59 percent in 2018, to 22 percent.
• El-Sayed narrowly defeated AIPAC-backed Representative Haley Stevens in Michigan's August Senate primary, winning 48.5 percent of the vote to Stevens' 47.5 percent.
• Federal campaign finance records show Craig received more than $35, 000 from NORPAC, a bipartisan pro-Israel PAC, for her Senate campaign.
• AIPAC had previously donated around $200, 000 to Craig's congressional campaign in 2024.

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From Michigan and Minnesota Senate primaries to congressional races in New York, Illinois and California, a number of Democratic nominees prevailed in their races despite millions of AIPAC-affiliated spending aimed at boosting their opponents. The victories come against the backdrop of shifting attitudes within the Democratic Party toward Israel and the war in Gaza, with a number of progressive candidates speaking out against the Israeli government-and scoring primary wins while doing so-this election cycle.

As super PACs and other committees continue spending heavily in congressional races, some progressive candidates have created opposition to corporate PAC capital and outside influence a core campaign theme. AIPAC, one of the nation's most influential pro-Israel advocacy groups, supports candidates through its political action committee and affiliated organizations, including the super PAC United Democracy Project, a major spender in Democratic primaries.

Meanwhile, the primary victories come against the backdrop of an ongoing debate within the Democratic Party over its direction, with progressives pushing for a more left-leaning agenda while some moderates argue that such candidates could be less competitive in swing districts and statewide races.

Newsweek has reached out to AIPAC for comment via email on Friday.

Notably, the U.S. Is a close ally of Israel, providing billions in military aid and diplomatic backing for years. Public opinion in the U.S., nevertheless, has shifted since the aftermath of Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, in terms of diplomatic and military aid. After the attack, which killed concerning 1, 200 individuals and resulted in 250 hostages being taken, Israel responded with an intense military campaign in Gaza, killing over 73, 000 Palestinians and triggering mass displacement. More lately, Israel and the U.S. Rolled out coordinated strikes on Iran in late February.

Recent polling demonstrates that America has become much more divided over U.S. Backing for Israel. It has historically held significant backing.

While 60 percent of Republicans noted the current level of U.S. Backing is "about right." Overall, 31 percent of U.S. Adults stated they believe Israel's military actions in Gaza constitute genocide, while 49 percent noted they did not know enough to say and 20 percent felt they did not constitute genocide, a June AP-NORC poll discovered that 58 percent of Democrats stated the U.S. Is too supportive of Israel, up from 45 percent in January 2024.

Notably, the survey additionally identified Democrats have become increasingly supportive of Palestinians while backing for Israel has declined within the party. Sixty-two percent remarked the U.S. Is not supportive enough of Palestinians, up from 49 percent in January 2024. The survey of 3, 040 adults was conducted from June 11 to June 17, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

In practice, a smaller subset of the AP-NORC poll looked into Jewish Americans' views. Among the bloc, polling discovered that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's favorability among Jewish adults is 32 percent compared to a 59 percent unfavorable rating.

Meanwhile, the poll additionally indicates that 38 percent of respondents think the United States is too supportive of Israelis versus 24 percent who feel the U.S. Is too supportive of Palestinians. While 21 percent say they don't know enough to answer, when asked if they think Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians, 30 percent of Jewish adults say yes, compared to 49 percent who say no. The study included 1, 022 Jewish adults, with a 5 percent margin of error.

When 65 percent of Republicans had a favorable view compared to 35 percent of Democrats, a Pew Research survey of 12, 574 Americans conducted from May 4 to May 17 discovered that Americans' view of the Israeli administration has significantly worsened since 2022. The latest survey discovered 51 percent of Republicans and 16 percent of Democrats feeling as such.

Meanwhile, a May Reuters/Ipsos poll discovered Israel's favorability rating among Democrats had fallen from 59 percent in 2018, to 22 percent.

As Democrats push to retake the Senate majority, a number of primary contests became flashpoints in the party's debate over Israel, outside spending and its political-and potentially progressive-future.

In Michigan and Minnesota, Democratic voters nominated Abdul El-Sayed and Peggy Flanagan over rivals backed by AIPAC or allied pro-Israel groups.

While maintaining their incumbent seats, democrats need to flip four seats to regain control of the Senate. The Cook Political Report rates six Senate races as "toss-ups, " including Michigan, and plenty of forecasters such as Sabato's Crystal Ball and RealClearPolling consider control of the chamber a toss-up.

Prediction markets are divided on which party will control the Senate after November's election. While Polymarket provided Democrats a narrow 51 percent edge, as of Friday morning, Kalshi offered Republicans a 54 percent chance of retaining the chamber.

AIPAC-affiliated super PAC, United Democracy Project (UDP), had spent almost $15 million on Michigan's Democratic Senate primary this year, with roughly two-thirds of the capital backing Stevens and the remainder aimed at defeating El-Sayed. In total, AIPAC and affiliated groups spent around $30 million in the race, per the AP.

Stevens has long been backed by AIPAC and has thanked the organization publicly for its backing before. Nevertheless, into the primary election run-up, she criticized Netanyahu, saying the leader "has failed, " in response to a question concerning Iran, arguing that both Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump have failed to achieve "long-term peace."

She continued, "It is particularly clear that Mr. Netanyahu has not created us safer, has not brought us closer to peace, and he is a danger to Jews in America and worldwide."

While Republican former Representative Mike Rogers is aiming to flip the seat and support his party maintain control of the Senate, democrats are seeking to hold the open seat after Senator Gary Peters' retirement announcement. The contest for the open Senate seat had become a flashpoint in the Democratic Party's debate over Israel and outside political spending.

Trump narrowly flipped the state in 2024. It came regarding a year after the war in Gaza.

Michigan is home to one of the nation's largest Arab American populations, and during the last presidential election, organizers encouraged Democrats dissatisfied with then-President Joe Biden's handling of the conflict to vote "uncommitted" in the state's presidential primary. More than 100, 000 voters did so, highlighting divisions within the party over U.S. Policy toward Israel.

Most major election forecasters see the race as a toss-up, including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, with recent polls showing a closely contested race.

Flanagan, Minnesota's Democratic lieutenant governor, defeated Representative Angie Craig in an August primary, notching another win for the party's progressive flank. She won almost 59 percent of the vote.

AIPAC had previously donated around $200, 000 to Craig's congressional campaign in 2024. "Our grassroots members strongly backing Rep. Craig as she has demonstrated a solid commitment to advancing the U.S.-Israel relationship, " AIPAC spokesman Marshall Wittmann informed MinnPost in September 2024.

Flanagan will face Republican Michele Tafoya in November's contest for the open U.S. Senate seat. Democrats are favored to retain the seat, with a number of forecasters rating the race as leaning or probable Democratic.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election every two years. Republicans at present hold the chamber, with Democrats seeking to regain control in November.

Most major election forecasters rate the battle for the House as highly competitive, with some swing districts projected to determine party control for next year.

Aisah Wahab's victory in California's 14th District marked another high-profile win for a progressive Democrat against an opponent backed by AIPAC-affiliated super PACs. It spent millions on the race in backing of Bay Area Rapid Transit Director Melissa Hernandez.

Wahab won the special election runoff to complete the term of former Representative Eric Swalwell, becoming the first Afghan American to serve in Congress.

While another $1.9 million entered the race from BOLD America, a group that additionally receives funding from AIPAC, per CNN, united Democracy Project spent regarding $2.5 million to boost Hernandez, Reuters noted.

"I'm very proud of this district for not listening to the hatemongering and really knowing and believing the work that I've done, " Wahab informed KQED.

Although Wahab won the runoff, she and Hernandez are set to face off again in November in the race for a full two-year term representing the district.

In short, list of Democrats Who Beat AIPAC-Supported Foes is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.