Will Trump's latest beef plan make your hamburger cheaper? Not much, experts say

When food costs and the cost of living are projected to be major matters on voters' minds, trump's new beef plan may not cut rates much, experts say The proposal comes weeks before the midterm elections.

Key points

• "I don't think it's going to be $1.50 " under Trump's plan, remarked Andrew Griffith, a University of Tennessee professor who studies livestock economics.
• An order of ground beef is prepared for a customer at Deep Cuts butcher shop in Dallas on Oct.
• Consumers who purchased ground beef last month paid an average of $6.89 per pound, federal data demonstrated.
• According to Trump, the lower tariff rate would apply for the next 90 days, but it may not take the U.S.
• In fact, Griffith remarked he did not think beef costs would drop $1.50.

Will Trump's latest beef plan create your hamburger cheaper? Not much, experts say. August 26, 202610: 58 AM ET.

For context, an order of ground beef is prepared for a customer at Deep Cuts butcher shop in Dallas on Oct. 21, 2025. Tony Gutierrez/AP hide caption.

On Friday, President Trump confirmed a plan to temporarily lower tariff rates on some imported ground beef in hopes of reducing the rate of the American dietary standby.

Trump remarked in a post on social media that the U.S. Would "allow up to 300, 000 metric tons of product for ground beef to be imported with no out of quota tariff. We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market rates."

When the economy and cost of living are projected to be among the top matters on voters' minds, the announcement, which rankled some U.S. Ranchers and Republican lawmakers, comes just weeks ahead of the November midterm elections.

Even Taco Tuesday could be more expensive as beef rates continue to rise.

As inflation has risen, ground beef has often been a bellwether of surging consumer rates. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average cost of a pound of ground beef jumped almost 57% over the last five years.

Yet agricultural industry experts say they don't expect Trump's plan to lead to a major decline in rates at the meat counter.

"I don't think it's going to be $1.50 " under Trump's plan, remarked Andrew Griffith, a University of Tennessee professor who studies livestock economics. "Now, we might see a quarter to 35 cents."

U.S. Consumers who purchased ground beef last month paid an average of $6.89 per pound, federal data demonstrated. A major cost drop is unlikely.

One reason the proposal may have little impact on ground beef rates is that the amount of ground beef subject to the lower tariff rate is relatively small compared to America's robust appetite for red meat.

Jaime Luke, an assistant professor and livestock economist at Michigan State University, remarked an further 300, 000 metric tons of ground beef would represent regarding a 2% rise in the domestic beef supply. "So when we look big picture, it maybe isn't as big of a number as you might think when you first see it outright, " she remarked.

Luke continued that it was unclear from Trump's announcement if the imported ground beef would be on top of what was already destined for the American market – or product that was coming to the U.S. Anyway and would simply benefit from a lower tariff rate.

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If consumers do see any cost savings, Griffith remarked, they'll probable be temporary.

According to Trump, the lower tariff rate would apply for the next 90 days, but it may not take the U.S. That long to import 300, 000 metric tons – or 661 million pounds – of ground beef, he observed. The U.S. Brought in regarding 542 million pounds of ground beef in June alone, according to the USDA.

Griffith remarked shoppers could see lower costs for a short time, but they shouldn't expect major savings. For the typical U.S. Consumer eating almost 60 pounds of ground beef per year, a 25-cent rate decline would mean an annual savings of $15. Food rates are a salient problem ahead of the midterms.

Trump's announcement on Friday irked the U.S. Cattle industry. It has been facing pressures from rising operating costs, a parasitic screwworm and foreign competition – leading to the smallest domestic cattle herd in decades.

"Undercutting American farmers and ranchers with inferior product from foreign competitors does nothing to create market confidence or encourage rebuilding the herd, " the National Cattlemen's Beef Association remarked in an official note.

'A slap in the face': Ranchers feel betrayed by Trump's plan to purchase Argentine beef.

Cattle producers similarly criticized another Trump proposal last year to import more beef from Argentina.

Last week's announcement even elicited rare rebukes from Republican lawmakers, some of whom are up for reelection in a few months.

"This hurts!" remarked Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota. This person pressed better protections for domestic producers. Montana Sen. Tim Sheehy remarked Trump's "heart is in the right place on wanting lower prices for the American people, " but stated the plan will "make it more difficult for American ranchers to rebuild our herd and bring prices down."

Yet voters are increasingly looking to their elected authorities to do something concerning skyrocketing food rates. It were up 3% in July compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, a survey by the University of Illinois and Purdue University in May discovered that almost 41% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats noted their votes in November would be strongly influenced by what candidates say concerning food affordability.

"I don't think it's the only issue, " remarked Maria Kalaitzandonakes, a University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign economics professor who leads the survey, "but I think there's a large share of voters that wants politicians to convey that they have a plan to make sure that cost of living and affordability remain a top issue."

Correction Aug. 26, 2026 A previous version of this story incorrectly remarked that professor Andrew Griffith informed NPR that beef rates would not drop by $1.25 under President Trump's plan. In fact, Griffith remarked he did not think beef costs would drop $1.50.

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For now, will Trump' s latest beef plan make your hamburger cheaper? Not much, experts remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.