Russia ramps up rhetoric but wants to avoid war with Nato, Western officials say

ByJonathan Beale Defence correspondent.

Key points

• The authorities stated Russia was losing 6, 000 more soldiers a month – either killed or wounded – than it can recruit.
• According to They, was aimed at breaking Western resolve and backing for Ukraine.
• Earlier this month, a drone loaded with explosives reached a runway in Germany's Leipzig airport – a key logistics hub for transferring military equipment to Ukraine.
• The Western authorities stated the Ukraine war had "escalated" this year, with both Moscow and Kyiv stepping up their own long-range strike campaigns.
• They were, they suggested, consistent with Russia's military doctrine to apply pressure on the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to avoid a direct military confrontation with Nato, despite increasingly hostile rhetoric aimed at the UK and other allies over their backing for Ukraine, Western office-holders believe.

Some reports have suggested the visit by CIA chief John Radcliffe to Moscow this week was, in part, to warn Russia against a feasible attack on a member of the Euro-Atlantic military alliance.

But the Western authorities. This person asked not to be named, stated recent warnings from Moscow, including that UK forces could be targeted in future or that its weapons factories could be hit, were "nothing new".

For context, the authorities suggested that the hostile rhetoric was additionally a reflection of the growing pressure Putin is facing at home, with slow and costly gains in Ukraine along with the impact of Ukrainian long-range strikes deep inside Russia.

Putin and his authorities have repeatedly dismissed warnings of Russian aims to attack Nato countries as hysteria. And US President Donald Trump appears to believe the Russian leader – saying this week that "he's not going to attack a Nato territory".

Not long before launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Putin had given public assurances that he had no intention of attacking Russia's neighbour – despite overwhelming US intelligence that such preparations were in full swing.

Nevertheless, the senior Western office-holders noted on Friday that Russia would probable continue its "hybrid activity", short of direct military action, using methods such as cyber-attacks, sabotage and even assassination attempts.

According to They, was aimed at breaking Western resolve and backing for Ukraine. One official highlighted the risks of that Russian strategy leading to a miscalculation -which could spark a military confrontation.

Russia is suspected of being behind a string of recent drone incidents in a number of Nato countries.

Earlier this month, a drone loaded with explosives reached a runway in Germany's Leipzig airport – a key logistics hub for transferring military equipment to Ukraine. There is no proof to link the incident directly to Russia. It has denied any role.

Though it again denies this, it came against the backdrop of a string of drone sightings over European airports and military bases that began last year and which are additionally suspected of being the work of Russia.

After the Leipzig incident, the head of France's security services cautioned that "we must consider the possibility of direct, more violent hostile actions on our national soil".

Still, one Western official remarked Nato allies should remain calm but not complacent. The UK administration has already produced clear that recent Russian threats will not deter its backing for Ukraine.

In practice, the Western authorities stated the Ukraine war had "escalated" this year, with both Moscow and Kyiv stepping up their own long-range strike campaigns.

Putin, they remarked, had not changed his maximalist objectives, despite some signs of increasing frustrations back home.

They remarked petrol shortages in Russia were having an impact on backing for the war. They believed there was increasing political pressure on the Russian leader, but that this did not pose a critical challenge to his power.

Russia is still making slow gains in the eastern Donbas region. But it's additionally facing heavy casualties.

Meanwhile, the authorities stated Russia was losing 6, 000 more soldiers a month – either killed or wounded – than it can recruit.

That remarked, there is no indication yet that the Kremlin leader will resort to mass mobilisation.

For now, russia ramps up rhetoric but wants to avoid war with Nato, Western remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.