Close race as Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining EU

ByPaul Kirby Europe digital editor.

Key points

• Voting is due to go on from 09: 00 to 22: 00 GMT on Saturday and the result is projected in the early hours of Sunday.
• Plenty of Icelanders remember the so-called Cod Wars with the UK that Iceland won in the 1970s.
• Icelanders are voting in a referendum to decide whether to resume discussions on joining the European Union, 13 years after they were broken off.
• The question on the ballot is, external: "Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?"
• One Yes-campaign group, "Yes to See", notes Icelanders should at least see what agreement they can obtain, so they have all the information before a final decision.

In an indication of how tight the result is projected to be, the latest opinion poll put the No campaign in the lead with 51.6%. An earlier poll had put the Yes campaign ahead.

Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's centre-left administration had already intended to hold a referendum, but turbulent international affairs prompted her to bring it forward.

But the debate was fought less over Nato member Iceland's security reservations than over its vital fishing industry and sovereignty.

Iceland has a population of under 400, 000. More than one in five voters had already cast their ballots in early voting before Saturday, according to Iceland's public broadcaster RUV. What is the vote regarding?

Meanwhile, the question on the ballot is, external: "Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?"

Although Iceland is already part of the EU's single market and Schengen border-free zone as part of the European Economic Area, EU membership would bring it into the customs union and eventually the euro.

Iceland's application to join the EU was already well advanced when it put discussions on hold in 2013, and European Commission office-holders have indicated that discussions could be finalised in one or two years. Of the 35 so-called chapters of discussions ranging from fisheries and economic policy to freedom of speech and free movement of goods, 27 had begun and 11 of them were provisionally complete, external.

Meanwhile, a Yes vote would not be a final decision on joining the EU. It would mean backing a move towards an accession agreement. As well by parliament, and the constitution would have to be amended, any accord would then have to be approved by a second referendum. The EU's 27 member states would additionally have to sign it off.

Equally, a No vote would not rule out the chance of Iceland resuming discussions going forward. What are the key problems?

Sovereignty has been a crucial matter in the pre-referendum debate. Iceland fought hard to become fully independent from Denmark in 1944, and its fishing and marine industries create up almost 40% of exports.

No campaigners fear losing control over Iceland's prized fishing grounds under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy and they have vowed never to share their waters with anyone. Brussels has indicated Iceland could earn some kind of exemption, but it is considered potentially the biggest obstacle to any agreement.

Plenty of Icelanders remember the so-called Cod Wars with the UK that Iceland won in the 1970s. And fisheries was always the matter that ceased Iceland joining the EU before.

After the 2008 financial crisis and the collapse of Iceland's banking system, Reykjavik moved to start accession discussions in 2009, only to bring them to a halt in 2013, nevertheless.

Iceland is now one of Europe's most affluent nations and Eirikur Bergmann, professor of politics at Bifröst University, informed the BBC that "many people attribute this to Iceland's independence".

One Icelandic trade union survey suggested this year that the country was more expensive than the next 10 most expensive countries in the world.

Although it has the fifth highest GDP (economic output) per capita in the world, interest rates are stubbornly high at 8% and inflation has climbed to 5.6%.

Yes campaigners argue that the economic benefits of the EU would support bring the rates down. What are Iceland's security reservations?

Iceland may be a founder member of Nato but it has no military and relies on its allies for defence.

Meanwhile, a bilateral US defence agreement has been in place since 1951 and the No campaign has remarked Iceland's security rests on both Nato and the US and EU membership is not a substitute for Nato.

Iceland has been a solid supporter of Ukraine during Russia's full-scale invasion and office-holders have viewed Russia's rose maritime manoeuvres near the island with alarm.

Nevertheless, there has additionally been concern at US President Donald Trump's expressed interest in taking over Greenland, and the fact that he has confused it with Iceland has caused alarm.

This year the EU and Iceland signed a security and defence partnership, and EU authorities stated the EU "offers an anchor in a community of values, prosperity and security". What do the Yes and No campaigns say?

Ahead of the referendum, the two sides held a televised debate where the Yes campaign team was headed by Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir and the No campaign was led by Guðrún Hafsteinsdóttir, chair of the opposition Independence Party.

Kristrún informed the audience that Iceland was already well integrated in the European Union, and becoming a member would be "one of the biggest risk-reducing steps we can take".

She additionally produced clear that a Yes vote did not necessarily mean that Iceland would join, and that if there was a No vote, the result would be respected.

Guðrún, meanwhile, stressed that the vote was not regarding whether Iceland should work well with Europe: "We already do, and we want that to continue."

Instead, she portrayed the referendum as a vote on whether Icelanders wanted to hand "decision-making powers" to Brussels on fisheries, agriculture and their natural resources.

Although geopolitics kick-started the government's decision to push for a return to EU discussions, there has been little discussion of it during the campaign.

"It's lower on the agenda than many would think, " notes Hallgrimur Oddsson, director of EU-Iceland think-tank European Currents.

For now, close race as Iceland votes on whether to restart talks on joining remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.