Who are the economic winners and losers of the US-Israel war on Iran?

Published On 31 Aug 202631 Aug 2026.

Key points

• While France's Societe Generale saw its earnings rise 23 percent to $2.04bn, UK lender HSBC's net profit jumped 60 percent to $10.1bn in the last quarter.
• In late July, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth provided Congress with an estimate putting the cost of the war up to that point at $37.5bn.
• France's TotalEnergies raked in a profit of $6bn in the April-June period, up from $3.6bn last year.
• British energy giants Shell and BP both more than doubled their earnings year-on-year, with quarterly profits of $9.8bn and $5.73bn, respectively.
• While Boeing has dropped concerning 8 percent, shares of Northrop Grumman are down regarding 25 percent since the start of the conflict.

Six months since the United States and Israel introduced their war on Iran, triggering turmoil in world energy markets, the fallout continues to reverberate through numerous areas of the global economy.

While the war has strained plenty of sectors of the economy, it has additionally been a boon for some industries.

Here is a look at some of the key economic winners and losers of the war.

Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside Iranian strikes on energy infrastructure in Gulf countries, has sent the cost of oil soaring since the start of the war. That has boosted the bottom lines of some of the world's biggest energy firms.

ExxonMobil, the largest oil firm in the US, noted $14.5bn profit in the second quarter of this year, its best quarterly earnings in four years.

Chevron, the second-largest US producer, posted a $12bn profit for the same period, the highest in six years.

"European energy companies did even better than the US peers as they trade oil, and the latter also helped boosting their revenues, " Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, informed Al Jazeera.

"Supply shortages sure remain a risk for business, but energy is essential, and the companies are capable of raising prices to cover the revenue loss and make profit out of it."

Despite the turmoil in the Middle East, some of the region's top producers have additionally produced bumper profits. Saudi Aramco netted $33.4bn profit in the most recent quarter, a one-third growth from 2025.

Some regional producers have been harder hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz than others, nevertheless.

In August, the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Firm (best known as ADNOC) noted a 52 percent drop in ‌second-quarter profit to $665m from $1.39bn in the same period a year earlier, saying sales had been hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, it still beat its anticipated range of $400m to $600m.

Hegseth did not provide a breakdown, but various observers have suggested that the true cost is almost certainly far higher.

Linda Bilmes, a senior lecturer in public policy at Harvard Kennedy School, remarked Hegseth's estimate appeared to be based on the upfront cost of munitions spent by US forces, neglecting medium- and long-term costs ranging from repairs to damaged military installations to disability payments for wounded soldiers. It could last for decades.

"There are significant costs in each category, but the Pentagon is only speaking about the short-term costs, mostly munitions valued at historical inventory, " Bilmes informed Al Jazeera.

"My analysis shows that the total budgetary costs will likely reach $1 trillion."

Recent US news reports have suggested that the US may be running low on essential weapons in the Middle East, particularly Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors. The Trump administration denies this.

In the most recent major weapons contract linked to the war, the Pentagon confirmed on August 17 that it had sealed a $22.9bn agreement with RTX Corporation to ramp up production of Tomahawk cruise missiles employed for strikes.

Meanwhile, the US military has additionally partnered with arms manufacturers on contracts worth tens of billions of dollars since the start of the war, including a $59bn agreement with Lockheed Martin to triple production of Patriot interceptor missiles. It US and Gulf forces have heavily depleted against Iranian missile and drone attacks.

This is one area in which Iran has shown it can excel in asymmetric warfare.

In practice, a new single Patriot defence system costs more than $1bn, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

While each Patriot interceptor missile fired costs approximately $4m to produce, the Iranian Shahed drones they are being applied to intercept are mass-produced and cost just $20, 000 to $50, 000 each.

"Demand has increased for air and missile defence, interceptor missiles, counter-drone technologies, surveillance and intelligence systems, satellites, propulsion, warheads, and munitions replenishment, " Rami Sarafa, CEO and founder of Cordoba Advisory Partners, informed Al Jazeera.

"The conflict has highlighted the importance of affordable drone interceptors, layered missile defence, persistent ISR and the ability to manufacture sizeable quantities of expendable munitions swiftly. This is a lesson that the US and Israel are learning the hard way."

Despite rose demand for armaments, some of the biggest defence firms have performed poorly on the stock market over the course of the war.

Lockheed Martin is up regarding 14 percent, only slightly more than the US stock market as a whole. Loser: The world's hungry.

Higher fuel and fertiliser costs have pushed up food rates, putting the world's poor at greater risk of hunger.

"The Gulf is important not only for oil and gas, but also for fertiliser and its feedstocks, " Gerben Hieminga, an expert in energy markets at ING Research, informed Al Jazeera.

"If farmers respond to high prices by applying less fertiliser, the economic impact can emerge months later through lower yields and higher food prices, with vulnerable importing countries in Africa and Asia facing the greatest risks, " Hieminga remarked.

In July, the Food and Agriculture Organization's food cost index rose 0.6 percent compared with the previous month to hit its highest level since January 2023, a rise the UN agency attributed to the combined effects of drought and higher fuel costs due to conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the World Food Programme has estimated that an extra 7.1 million residents in three vulnerable countries – Somalia, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka – are already struggling to obtain sufficient food due to the fallout of the war.

Last week, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cautioned that conflict had turned the world's food supply into "collateral damage". He pressed an end to the disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf. It iran has effectively closed, and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen are targeting Saudi-linked shipping.

As investors look to profit from wild market swings or swap equities for less risky assets, such as bonds, stock market volatility spurred by the war has driven a surge in trading at financial institutions.

Each of the "Big Four" US banks documented double-digit increases in profit in the second quarter of the year, with JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo netting a combined $42.5bn. Major banks in other countries have additionally noted impressive earnings.

Meanwhile, the war has severely impacted the aviation industry, particularly in the Middle East, where Iranian missile and drone attacks forced the cancellation or diversion of tens of thousands of flights in the early months of the conflict.

Taken together, the developments around who are the economic winners and losers of the US point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.