UN warns El Nino could be ‘off the charts’, strongest in decades

By Al Jazeera Staff and AFP. Published On 3 Sep 20263 Sep 2026.

Key points

• Weekly values between late July and mid-August ranged from 2.2C to 2.6C (4F to 4.7F) above average, indicating continued El Nino intensification.
• Though its knock-on impacts for the climate will continue well into 2027, remarked the WMO, el Nino will peak towards the end of this year.
• The WMO remarked there was an "exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent" that El Nino will continue through to February.
• In some areas, subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8C (14.4F) above average during July and early August.
• The naturally occurring weather phenomenon warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.

El Nino is due to intensify to exceptional levels in the coming months and persist into early 2027, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has cautioned, raising the prospect of worsening droughts, floods and extreme heat throughout the globe.

Meanwhile, the United Nations weather agency remarked on Thursday forecasts show a almost 100 percent likelihood that El Nino will continue through February, the strongest level of certainty it has ever expressed in an El Nino/La Nina update.

Meanwhile, the naturally occurring weather phenomenon warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.

"If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began – so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades, " WMO chief Celeste Saulo remarked to journalists in Geneva, Switzerland. Though its knock-on impacts for the climate will continue well into 2027, remarked the WMO, el Nino will peak towards the end of this year.

Heat in the oceans releases more gradually into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the after year.

For context, the powerful 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and "we should not be surprised if this record is broken", Saulo remarked.

"El Nino is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, " the WMO remarked.

El Nino is a natural phenomenon and is not caused by climate change. While amping up weather extremes, but scientists expect it will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming since of burning fossil fuels.

El Nino is being supersized before our eyes, remarked UN chief Antonio Guterres. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather.

"The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect individuals. We must win that race."

"This exceptional El Nino. Has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world, " Saulo remarked.

"We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Nino intensifies."

She put disaster management authorities and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, healthcare, energy and water on notice, saying there was "no time to lose" in getting ready.

El Nino typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts nine months to a year.

Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.

"Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Nino is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity, " the WMO remarked.

Meanwhile, the UN agency classifies El Nino events as subdued, moderate, robust or particularly robust – meaning it is due to reach the highest level out of four.

Notably, the WMO remarked there was an "exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent" that El Nino will continue through to February.

El Nino can reshape weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometres away from the tropical Pacific.

Every El Nino is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns. This includes drought throughout parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India and shifting rainfall throughout the tropics.

For September-November, WMO forecasts indicate an rose likelihood of above-normal temperatures "across almost all land areas", alongside rainfall patterns showing a "pronounced and classic atmospheric response to the strong Pacific El Nino", the weather agency stated.

For context, the index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central eastern equatorial Pacific, has strengthened from an average 1.5C (2.7F) above normal between May and July.

Taken together, the developments around UN warns El Nino could be 'off the charts', strongest in decades point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.