Germany’s far right eyes election breakthrough as AfD surges in Saxony

Video Duration 02 minutes 28 seconds 02: 28. Saxony-Anhalt elections: Germany's far-right AFD on track to secure majority.

Key points

• Together with a team, he conducted a study based on data from 2014 to 2024.
• Another key election takes place on September 20 in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD is additionally polling at concerning 37 percent.
• In Saxony-Anhalt, it is poised to become the first far-right force to head a German state administration since World War II, with the AfD's leading candidate, Ulrich Siegmund.
• The party has been classified as "far-right extremist" in Saxony-Anhalt by Germany's domestic intelligence service.
• While critics argue that such incidents receive excessive media focus, the deadly car attack at Berlin's Pride parade in July keeps pushing the topic into the headlines.

Mario Jung does not fit the profile of a political hardliner. The 59-year-old banking clerk. This person lives in Magdeburg in eastern Germany, has voted for the country's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) previously.

But he blames former Chancellor Angela Merkel for pushing the CDU to the left and on Sunday, in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, he will back the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

"I am a conservative, and the main reason for me to vote for the (far-right) AfD is the economy, " he informed Al Jazeera. He additionally agrees with the AfD's hardline immigration policy.

"All illegal immigrants, those whose applications have been denied, and criminal immigrants as well – they have to be deported; there is no question about it, " he remarked.

Meanwhile, the regional elections pose a test for Germany's political establishment, with the AfD in contention for top positions in the state administration.

He was dubbed "Germany's most dangerous man" by the influential magazine Der Spiegel. Before becoming a politician for the AfD, Siegmund was a member of the CDU.

Notably, the party has been classified as "far-right extremist" in Saxony-Anhalt by Germany's domestic intelligence service. The AfD is leading the state by a wide margin in the polls, projected to win more than 40 percent of the votes.

In practice, the conservative CDU is far behind at just above 20 percent, followed by the Left Party at 12 percent, the Social Democrats at 7 percent and the Greens at 5 percent. Depending on which smaller parties clear the threshold to enter parliament, the other parties could potentially form a majority without the AfD. But German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) lately ruled out cooperation with both the Left Party and the AfD, a party whose office-holders have applied Nazi slogans. Nationalism at the fore.

In its election platform, titled "The Country First", the AfD calls for the abolition of the right to asylum, the confiscation of cash and assets of asylum seekers and mass deportations.

Anyone who insults German identity or the "historical-cultural entity Germany" could face a prison sentence, according to the campaign. The party additionally seeks to ban the "Antifa" movement, cancel public broadcasting and reverse the shift towards renewable energy.

Founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party in the aftermath of the European Union financial crisis, it gained ground during Merkel's 2015 decision to admit regarding a million refugees, numerous of them Syrian.

It has since shifted further right, dominated today by a nationalist wing and hardline factions in the east, hardline immigration positions and opposition to sanctions on Russia.

For context, the AfD has additionally repeatedly politicised attacks by asylum seekers or Germans with foreign descent.

While critics argue that such incidents receive excessive media focus, the deadly car attack at Berlin's Pride parade in July keeps pushing the topic into the headlines. AfD blamed the "catastrophic migration policy of the last few years", but the attacker had been born in Germany. Why is AfD on the rise? Experts have proposed various hypotheses to explain the party's popularity.

Last year, it became the second-largest party in the Bundestag, securing 21 percent of the vote in federal elections.

In Germany's eastern states. It were formerly part of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) and the Eastern Bloc and underwent a radical transition after reunification, structural factors are at play, analysts say.

In practice, the region is characterised by a lack of jobs, a shortage of local doctors, the decline of public transportation, depopulated villages, and a persistent perception that the eastern states are governed by distant liberal elites in Berlin.

Thomas Biebricher, a professor at Goethe University Frankfurt, believes the main reason for the AfD's success "is widespread dissatisfaction with the political situation, the federal administration and the overall economic situation in the country. Meanwhile, the AfD has managed to nominate a lead candidate who is doing a particularly good job, " he informed Al Jazeera.

While the party is often seen as most popular among workers, its success is additionally linked to "parts of the capitalist class" who are pushing a neoliberal agenda, Biebricher stated.

There are influential AfD supporters who believe that capitalism is over-regulated, that taxes should be lowered, and that the state, overall, should simply intervene less.

"If it were to enter government, it would be the first time since 1945 that a party with a far-right agenda would enter government at the state level, " he continued. It would "also cause considerable damage to Germany's image".

For a number of years, the CDU has been debating nationwide how to agreement with the AfD. At the local level, the "principle of non-cooperation" – additionally known as the "firewall"- has already been abandoned.

Martin Schroder, a professor of social sciences at Saarland University, believes that the AfD's migration policy is crucial for its success.

"Concerns about immigration explain support for the AfD nearly 10 times as much as actual or perceived economic disadvantage, " he informed Al Jazeera.

Like Saxony-Anhalt, the northeastern state was formerly part of the GDR. Berlin will additionally go to the polls that day. In the capital, which is additionally one of Germany's 16 federal states, the CDU at present leads with 21 percent, followed by the Left Party at 19 percent and the AfD at 18 percent.

Taken together, the developments around germany's far right eyes election breakthrough as AfD surges in Saxony point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.