El Nino will linger longer. What it means for India

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Key points

• With August already recording a 16% rainfall deficit and the hottest August since 1901, El Nino could further stress crops and winter conditions.
• El Nino to persist through February 2027: What it means for India.
• Understanding business to figure out the mystery: Power Grid Corp – Part 1.
• While El Nino is known to have a warming effect on the planet, its opposite phase, called La Nina, usually results in a cooling effect.
• The Economic Times daily newspaper is available online now.

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El Nino to persist through February 2027: What it means for India. PTILast Updated: Sep 04, 2026, 08: 07: 00 PM IST.

World Meteorological Organization notes prevailing El Nino conditions could intensify into a highly solid event and persist through February 2027, threatening India with weaker rainfall, higher temperatures and greater risks of drought, floods and extreme heat. With August already recording a 16% rainfall deficit and the hottest August since 1901, El Nino could further stress crops and winter conditions. Listen to this article in summarized format. Unlock AI Briefing and Premium Content. New Year Offer 24 Hours Left. Subscribe Now Already a member? Sign In.

New Delhi: The prevailing El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific are most probable to intensify into a highly solid event in the coming months and persist through February 2027, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has remarked. It remarked this could have substantial impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and the associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat.: India faces weakest monsoon in almost two decades as El Nino strengthens.

In an official note on Thursday, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo remarked, El Nino in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies throughout the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Nino intensifies. Live Events.

In practice, the WMO projections came just days after the India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its forecast for September, remarked that El Nino conditions could persist till February next year.: What is El Niño and how does it affect India? El Nino is one of the three phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a climate phenomenon characterised by changes in sea temperatures along the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by fluctuations in the atmosphere overhead. While El Nino is known to have a warming effect on the planet, its opposite phase, called La Nina, usually results in a cooling effect. ENSO additionally has a neutral phase. El Nino conditions typically lead to less rainfall in India. That is why it did not come as a surprise when the IMD, on August 31, confirmed that the overall rainfall in India during the month was deficient due to prevailing El Nino conditions. The rainfall deficit over the whole of India in August stood at 16 per cent, according to the IMD. It additionally stated the month was the hottest August that India experienced since 1901, and one reason for this was El Nino. For September, the IMD has forecast rainfall to be below 91 per cent of the long period average (LPA). LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given period, such as a month or a season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years. For September, the LPA is regarding 167.9 mm based on data between 1971 and 2020. While the IMD has yet to create a post-monsoon seasonal forecast, an intensifying El Nino means higher temperatures during the winter season. It could exacerbate the situation as India is already witnessing warmer winters. For context, a recent study by Climate Trends, a Delhi-based climate think tank, discovered that winters in northern India are shortening, with February-March warming becoming common. According to Climate Trends, February has recorded the fastest warming, with temperatures rising by 0.69 degree Celsius per decade. March and April additionally show significant increases at 0.58 degrees Celsius and 0.66 degree Celsius, respectively. This is increasing the risk of terminal heat stress on Rabi crops like wheat. "These temperature changes coincide with the reproductive and grain filling stages of wheat and are already affecting production in the major wheat-growing regions, " the study remarked. PTI Add Now!

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For now, el Nino will linger longer. What it means for India remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.