Cat 4 Hurricane Lowell roars near Hawaii as forecasters warn of big turn

Cat 5 Hurricane Lowell roars near Hawaii as forecasters warn of major turn Although the storm is at present moving to the west, Lowell is forecast to create a sharp right turn toward Hawaii.

Key points

• Lowell is forecast to bring 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to 10 inches on Kauai and the Major Island.
• A major hurricane has winds of at least 111 mph; Category 3, 4 and 5 storms are classified as major hurricanes.
• 4, the center of Lowell was regarding 600 miles south-southwest of Honolulu and was moving west at 7 mph.
• The latest forecast calls for the center of Hurricane Lowell to be roughly 200 miles southwest of Kauai between Sept.
• Lowell is forecast to be a Category 3 hurricane at its closest proximity to Hawaii, the National Weather Service in Honolulu remarked in a forecast discussion from Sept.

Meanwhile, the entire Atlantic Ocean is now open for tropical development as we enter late August. AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno explains why.

Hurricane Lowell is on a path forecasters fear will shortly produce a bend that puts its course uncomfortably close to the western Hawaiian Islands near Labor Day, forecasters noted.

Lowell restrengthened to a Category 5 storm on Friday, with 160 mph sustained winds and could grow a little stronger overnight, the National Hurricane Center remarked in an 11 p.m. ET update on September 4.

Although the storm is moving to the west, seemingly away from Hawaii, Lowell is forecast to create a sharp right turn to the north or north-northeast over the weekend. The timing and location of that turn will influence how close Lowell approaches Hawaii, the hurricane center remarked.

In practice, the turn is forecast to bring the center of the storm within 200 miles west of Kauai. A western nudge on the forecast track in the early morning hours on Sept. Though Lowell's exact path is still up in the air, 4 was good news for Hawaii residents looking to avoid a feasible landfall.

By Sept. 5, Lowell is projected to commence weakening, but is still forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands, according to the center's update. A major hurricane has winds of at least 111 mph; Category 3, 4 and 5 storms are classified as major hurricanes.

Forecasters remarked Lowell could move near or just west of the westernmost main islands on Sept. 7.

"Regardless of the hurricane's exact track and intensity, there is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts for portions of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week, " the hurricane center remarked.

Lowell is forecast to bring 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to 10 inches on Kauai and the Major Island. It could produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain, the hurricane center stated. While the remaining islands could receive up to 4 inches, on Maui, isolated amounts could reach 8 inches. Where is Hurricane Lowell now?

As of 11 p.m. ET on Friday, Sept. 4, the center of Lowell was regarding 600 miles south-southwest of Honolulu and was moving west at 7 mph. The storm's maximum sustained winds of 160 mph created it a Category 5 storm.

Notably, the hurricane center track forecast moves Lowell gradually westward with a northward turn and rise in forward speed by Sunday, Sept. 6. How close will Lowell obtain to Hawaii?

It's too shortly to know for sure how close an approach Lowell will produce to the Hawaiian Islands, but nudges westward in the track on Sept. 4 were a bit of good news for island residents.

In practice, the latest forecast calls for the center of Hurricane Lowell to be roughly 200 miles southwest of Kauai between Sept. 7 and 8.

Meanwhile, the center's average track forecast error in the central and eastern Pacific is better than in the Atlantic at 48 hours out and beyond. In the Pacific over the past five years, the forecast error averaged only 122 miles (106 nautical miles) at 96 hours out.

Meanwhile, the prediction of where and how sharply the hurricane makes the forecast turn "is challenging, " stated the 11 a.m. ET forecast discussion, written by John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist at the center.

Notably, the forecast models "show a considerable amount of spread on how close the core of Lowell gets to Kauai County, " Cangialosi wrote.

Afterwards on Sept. 4, the U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into Lowell, collecting information to support assess its intensity and structure. Category 3 probable for Hurricane Lowell.

Lowell is forecast to be a Category 3 hurricane at its closest proximity to Hawaii, the National Weather Service in Honolulu remarked in a forecast discussion from Sept. 3.

According to The hurricane center, with a Category 3 storm, "devastating damage will occur: well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Plenty of trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads."

"Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes, " the hurricane center remarked. What meteorologists are watching in Lowell's forecast.

Lowell's track is being influenced by an "unusual upper level trough" in the atmosphere that is projected to steer the hurricane northward, stated Steven Businger, a professor in the meteorology department at the University of Hawaii. He and other meteorologists will be watching to see how much influence that trough will have and whether it will produce solid enough wind shear to disrupt the hurricane.

Notably, the proximity of the storm to Kauai and the other islands will create all the difference, he stated.

"It's a very strong storm, " he remarked. "If it takes the path that the current models are suggesting, then it could be a real problem for Kauai."

As it puts Kauai in the northern quadrant of the storm, where winds are typically considered the most dangerous, that path just to the west of Kauai is "troubling, " he remarked.

Lowell reminds Businger of Iniki, one of only two hurricanes to create a direct landfall on any of Hawaii's major islands, he stated. "Iniki took a similar turn and it was pandemonium in Hawaii when that happened." Iniki is considered the most devastating hurricane in Hawaii's history.

If Lowell does take the projected turn northward, it could be moving quite swiftly as it moves northward, he noted. Depending on the eventual track, "it could be a very nasty, short-lived storm." 'Life-threatening' surf and rip currents feasible.

Swells from Lowell are probable to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next a number of days, the hurricane center noted. These swells are probable to rise early next week.

Residents and visitors throughout the state will want to continue to monitor the forecasts, stated WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry in a Substack post. "The large extra-high surf will likely affect harbor entrances, channels, and coastal properties and infrastructure, including roadways, through early next week, " he remarked.

Notably, a swell from Hurricane Karina, another of the three hurricanes spinning in the Pacific, is additionally forecast to commence arriving along the islands on Sept. 4 and may additionally produce high-surf advisories along east-facing shores, the weather service stated. Have a hurricane plan and supply kit ready.

Notably, the hurricane center remarked "interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane plan and supply kit in place."

This weekend would be a good time for Hawaii residents to review hurricane safety intends.

In practice, the weather service notes that storm surge and inland flooding remain the deadliest hurricane hazards and pressed residents to know their evacuation zone, follow evacuation orders and never drive on flooded roads. A number of storm-related fatalities in 2026 have been linked to motorists attempting to cross flooded roadways.

Notably, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration additionally recommends assembling an emergency kit that includes at least three days of water (1 gallon per person per day), nonperishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries, cash and a battery-powered or hand-cranked weather radio.

NOAA further advises having multiple ways to receive emergency warnings rather than relying solely on a cellphone. Options include weather radios, emergency alert systems, television and radio broadcasts, and trusted weather apps. What are the wind probabilities for the islands?

In practice, the wind probabilities have been dropping with the westward shifts in the forecast track. The after are the probabilities for sustained tropical storm-force winds in the islands from Monday morning to Tuesday morning, Sept. 8, the window of peak risk as of the Sept. 4 forecast.

Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver are national correspondents for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate. Share your feedback to support improve our site!

Taken together, the developments around cat 4 Hurricane Lowell roars near Hawaii as forecasters warn of big point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.