Aviation faces hotter, stormier skies – and passengers might have to accept more disruption

ByTheo Leggett International business correspondent.

Key points

• He notes incidents over the North Atlantic have climbed by 55% since 1979.
• For controllers at National Air Traffic Services's (NATS) main control centre in Swanwick, Hampshire, thunderstorms are a major preoccupation.
• With some 40% of the world's population living within 100km of coastlines, plenty of airports have been built on low-lying areas near the sea.
• In the end, some 900 flights to and from both airports were delayed, some by up to 11 hours.
• It was a Saturday, and with the holiday season getting under way, thousands of passengers were heading to London's Heathrow and Gatwick airports to catch flights abroad.

As the country sweltered through one of the plenty of heatwaves of a baking summer in late June, towering thunderclouds were gathering over the south of England and throughout much of northern Europe. It was a Saturday, and with the holiday season getting under way, thousands of passengers were heading to London's Heathrow and Gatwick airports to catch flights abroad. It was always going to be a particularly busy day.

What followed, nevertheless, was chaos for travellers. As air traffic controllers struggled to route aircraft around the storms, airspace became heavily congested and plenty of planes due to fly were simply forced to wait on the ground. In the end, some 900 flights to and from both airports were delayed, some by up to 11 hours. Dozens more were cancelled. At airports throughout Europe, passengers expecting to fly into London additionally faced long waits and uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the weather in the UK may now have cooled, and passengers may shortly forget their experiences. But some within the industry believe what happened in June should be seen as a warning.

Notably, the timing in this case was clearly unlucky. But there are reservations that such incidents are only going to become more common as the effects of climate change mount up worldwide and weather systems are probable to become increasingly unstable, making disruption more probable and adding to costs for airlines, airports and travellers.

Tim Atkinson, an airline risk consultant and former pilot, notes the highly crowded skies over the UK and northern Europe mean the region is particularly exposed.

He thinks there is a real risk, for example, that all of London's airports could be affected by storms meanwhile, potentially with major consequences in the air and on the ground. "What we're seeing now is very rapid climate change, " he notes.

"We're going from the kind of weather activity which takes out an airport, and which the system kind of copes with. To a situation where, with very little predictability, it would be possible to lose all of the London airports from real-time operation quite swiftly and with little notice".

Such a scenario, he thinks, would create the disruption for passengers caused by the incident in June seem relatively minor – and could even put lives at risk. But how probable is it?

For controllers at National Air Traffic Services's (NATS) main control centre in Swanwick, Hampshire, thunderstorms are a major preoccupation. When I visit, it is a hot and humid day, there are ominous dark clouds in the sky, and heavy, thundery downpours are hitting the surrounding region.

In Terminal Control, the part of the building responsible for flights heading to or from airports in London and southern England, those same storm cells are being monitored continually. While meanwhile weather forecasts are carefully scrutinised, their progress is tracked on sizeable radar screens.

Air traffic tends to come in waves during the day. Right now, at lunchtime, it is relatively quiet and the storms have yet to affect major routes. But with activity projected to intensify in the afternoon, staff are already preparing for what could be a tricky few hours.

Stormy weather can shrink the available airspace, meaning traffic has to be restricted and rerouted. If planes are unable to land at one airport, for example due to high winds, they may need diverting to another. But that can create its own challenges; if too numerous unscheduled aircraft land at an already busy airport, it might not have sufficient infrastructure to accommodate them all.

Planes need fuel and somewhere to park. Passengers need food and facilities. Ultimately, if there isn't space, it can simply refuse to accept all but emergency traffic.

This is where the scenario set out by Atkinson comes in. He warns of a situation where traffic is diverted from Heathrow, Gatwick, Luton and Stansted meanwhile, leaving aircraft coming in throughout the Atlantic and numerous European flights all looking for somewhere to land at the same time, and some with dwindling fuel reserves.

This would at the particularly least create serious disruption for passengers. This person might end up hundreds of miles from their destinations. But it could additionally, he thinks, create "a very serious risk event, such as an aircraft running out of fuel in the sky".

Aircraft are legally required to carry enough fuel to take them to an alternative airport if necessary, and to allow them to fly for an extra 30 minutes on top of that.

Not everyone shares Atkinson's concern. Former airline executive Andrew Charlton. This person manages the Swiss-based consultancy Aviation Advocacy, thinks the risk is low.

You've always got to imagine the worst-case scenario, he notes. But I additionally think we need to keep that worst case in context.

"Yes, it's feasible to imagine it. But I'm additionally fairly comfortable with the ability of this industry to react well and produce good decisions. Of all the things that wake me up at 3am.this is not the top of that list."

Thunderstorms are caused by what is known as convective activity, where moist air close to the ground warms rapidly and rises rapidly. As it rises, it expands and cools, allowing the moisture it carries to condense, forming sizeable clouds. More heat means more convective energy, potentially creating instability. Furthermore, for every degree the Earth warms, the atmosphere can hold regarding 7% more moisture, increasing the probability of heavy rainfall.

As so plenty of variables are involved beyond the simple matter of energy and moisture, it is not clear whether this means we will actually obtain more thunderstorms in the UK and throughout Europe. Some parts of the world may even obtain fewer. Nevertheless, studies have shown that higher latitudes, particularly in the northern hemisphere, will see the biggest increases in favourable conditions for storms to form, and those that do may be more violent. According to the UK's Met Office, "while we may not see more thunderstorms overall, the ones we do experience could be more impactful".

Where feasible, pilots will avoid flying through convective weather. As well as throwing individuals around the cabin if they are not strapped in, even though aircraft are designed to cope with severe conditions, storms can produce intense turbulence, capable of damaging the structural frame of the plane. Hail can additionally be a sizeable difficulty, potentially cracking windscreens or causing engine difficulties. So, nevertheless much inconvenience it may cause passengers, crews will invariably put safety first.

Onboard weather radars can support aircrew to see up to 320 nautical miles ahead. They additionally have access to live weather forecasting resources online. But thunderstorms can move rapidly and, according to Prof Guy Gratton, an expert in aeronautics at Cranfield University, these systems are essentially "tactical rather than strategic". Although they enable pilots to see storm cells on their screens from a relatively short distance away, and request a diversion, they do not allow for detailed long-distance planning, in other words.

Meanwhile, the result is that unplanned diversions often happen late in flight. It is projected to mean burning more fuel. If storm delays do become more common, notes Andrew Charlton, then aircraft will have to load more fuel as a matter of course, in case there is trouble brewing ahead. "Aircraft are going to have to fly further, and they're going to have to factor in the assumption they're going to fly further, " he notes. For an airline, fuel is one of its major costs – and if the fuel bill goes up, he notes, it is inevitable passengers will pay more.

More intense storms would be probable to produce air traffic management in busy regions harder and potentially lead to more delays and cancellations. Nevertheless, it is feasible some of this could be mitigated using new technologies.

Both Heathrow and Gatwick, for example, have moved away from mandating minimum distances between incoming aircraft in favour of a system which continually calculates spacing times based on wind speeds and aircraft types. In practice, this is meant to allow controllers to reduce the distance between landing aircraft, particularly in high winds, and obtain them on the ground more swiftly. According to NATS, it has successfully improved landing rates and reduced delays by a significant margin.

Nevertheless, there could be other effects from more severe storms as well. Heavier rainfall, for instance, increases the likelihood of flooding. As happened in April 2024 when torrential downpours hit Dubai International Airport, in a worst case, this can paralyse airport operations. While disruption lasted for two days, it briefly had to close its runways. More than 1, 200 flights were cancelled, affecting tens of thousands of passengers.

But even if runways and taxiways themselves are clear, and aircraft are able to fly without any difficulty, passengers may struggle to catch their flights if roads, railways or car parks are flooded.

Protecting against such risks can be expensive. Gatwick Airport, which experienced severe flooding over the Christmas period in 2013, has spent tens of millions of pounds on mitigation strategies over recent years – although those figures are dwarfed by the more than £2bn it is expecting to invest in its current expansion intends.

For context, the difficulty of clear-air turbulence is additionally a real one. It cannot be seen, and is becoming increasingly common as the climate warms.

This is when air moves violently at high altitudes with no clouds or other visual cues to support a pilot avoid it. For passengers, it usually only means a little bit of bumpiness, but occasionally it can be a lot more serious. On 1 March 2023, for example, a Lufthansa flight from Austin, Texas to Frankfurt encountered what the airline described as "brief but severe" turbulence.

Those aboard described how passengers and flight crew were thrown around the cabin as the plane suddenly lost altitude. After it created an emergency landing in Washington DC, seven residents were taken to hospital.

While still rare, this kind of turbulence is already much more prevalent than it applied to be and is anticipated to become even more so.

"You know the projections are pretty dire: doubling, trebling or worse in the amount of severe turbulence on many busy flight routes around the world, " notes Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading. He notes incidents over the North Atlantic have climbed by 55% since 1979.

Nevertheless, he remains confident solutions can be discovered, including improvements to forecasting and making apply of laser-based technology.

There is another climate-related threat to aviation. It may prove challenging to overcome: rising sea levels. When Hurricane Sandy arrived off the US East Coast in October 2012, it provoked a storm surge that flooded the city. The two runways at New York's LaGuardia airport were left under water for a number of days, preventing it from reopening even after the winds had subsided.

Significant flooding that would have affected the New York City area once in every 500 years in pre-industrial times is now experienced every 25 years or so – and could occur every five years by the middle of the century, according to one major study. That makes LaGuardia, built on reclaimed land next to Flushing Bay, appear highly vulnerable.

It is not alone. With some 40% of the world's population living within 100km of coastlines, plenty of airports have been built on low-lying areas near the sea. According to research by Newcastle University, 269 airports worldwide are already at risk of flooding due to rising sea levels, and that total is projected to rise. Among those potentially most exposed are the likes of Amsterdam Schiphol, London City, Bahrain International and Newark Liberty International.

Plenty of airports do already have some degree of flood protection, especially larger ones. But stopping the flood risks from rising over the next century means expensive investment in flood defences, raising runways, or even moving airports. It could cost up to $57bn (£42bn) according to the Newcastle report. Such costs are ultimately probable to be met by taxpayers or by travellers.

For now, aviation faces hotter, stormier skies – and passengers might have to accept remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.