US, Iran engaged in tanker war: Where is the months-long conflict headed?

For context, the United States and Iran have escalated tit-for-tat attacks previously 24 hours, with Washington targeting three Iranian oil tankers and Tehran hitting tankers and firing a ballistic missile towards US warships patrolling near the Strait of Hormuz.

Key points

• Brent crude futures closed on Friday at $96.28 a barrel, their highest level since July 24, up from roughly $70 before the war.
• While 63 percent are against it, a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted in late August discovered that only 31 percent of Americans back the war.
• On Sunday, Iran asserted it struck an unmanned US vessel trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Associated Press news agency.
• Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil supplies flowed, in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks that began on February 28.
• Last month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed a raft of economic measures to target Tehran's financial interests throughout the world.

As the months-long fighting is increasingly playing out at sea, with both sides trying to exert control over the strategic strait – a global chokepoint applied by Tehran as leverage in the war, experts have dubbed Iran's targeting of the two US aircraft carriers a "calculated escalation".

Though the exact figures are still debatable, while the naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, the attacks on tankers come as the US claims that an increasing volume of oil has began to flow through the strait.

Notably, the latest exchanges further dim hopes for a de-escalation through diplomacy as the US-Israel war on Iran has disrupted energy supplies and slowed economic expansion worldwide.

So, what do we know regarding the latest tanker wars, and where is the conflict headed? What do we know regarding the latest attacks on tankers?

US Central Command (CENTCOM) remarked its forces struck three Iranian vessels, including a tanker off Kharg Island, the hub through which Iran exported 90 percent of its crude before the war.

Another tanker was struck near Jask, and an unladen vessel was hit in the Gulf of Oman after its crew was informed to abandon ship.

CENTCOM remarked the attacks followed Iranian ballistic missile launches against a US aircraft carrier and navy destroyer. It it stated successfully evaded the strikes. No US personnel were injured.

"If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost – taking out three of yours, " CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper remarked.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remarked it rolled out "several ballistic missiles" at the aircraft carrier and destroyer, accusing them of "harassing Iranian ships" and taking part in a naval blockade.

"The Iranians did not only target two ordinary warships – they targeted a missile destroyer and, remarkably, an aircraft carrier. The backbone of the American campaign against Iran, " defence analyst Wolfgang Pusztai informed Al Jazeera.

"This is a very, very significant development, and it doesn't come as a surprise that the Americans retaliated."

Iran then remarked its forces additionally targeted three oil tankers travelling through what it called an "unauthorised route" in the Strait of Hormuz and three US-linked vessels elsewhere.

In an official note carried by Iranian broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC navy cautioned all vessels in the Gulf or near the Strait of Hormuz not to be "deceived" by the US military and to "refrain from any suspicious movement aimed at transiting unauthorised waterways". "Otherwise, you will be targeted, " it remarked.

On Sunday, Iran asserted it struck an unmanned US vessel trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Associated Press news agency. Why are they attacking tankers?

Washington asserted the Iranian tankers it struck were part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network financing the IRGC and its regional allies.

Iran has long relied partly on a shadow fleet to circumvent sanctions and sell oil, a source of revenue that has become more significant since the US began blockading Iranian ports in April.

Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil supplies flowed, in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks that began on February 28. Some 20 million barrels of oil flowed daily before the war began.

Hassan Ghashghavi, a lawmaker and spokesman for the Iranian Parliament's National Security Commission, remarked the attacks on US warships were part of "an existential war with America", arguing that Washington's naval blockade "should never have existed" in the first place.

"Naturally, they have acted militarily in violation of all international laws, " he informed Al Jazeera, adding that "because America is far from us, it does not see this war as existential".

Meanwhile, the US has continued to build pressure on Iran to open the key waterway, both militarily and economically.

Bessent remarked the US would target all of Iran's sources of revenue, including oil, to prevent other countries and businesses from doing business with Tehran.

This comes despite US assertions of normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington insisting the waterway is open and that dozens of ships carrying millions of barrels of oil transit it each day.

Last week, Bessent asserted that some 17 million barrels of crude oil a day had been shipped out lately, according to a report in the United Kingdom's The Times newspaper. Al Jazeera, nevertheless, could not independently verify the claims in the report.

President Donald Trump asserted last month that the US was in "total control" of the strait.

Yet figures from marine analytics firm Kpler show only six vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and five on Monday, with a 10-day average of just 13 vessels per day. What is the latest with oil rates? The attacks are adding to reservations concerning global energy supplies.

Predictably, US oil and gas rates have additionally skyrocketed, coming at a crucial time for Trump as Americans head to the polls for midterm elections in November.

Diesel hit a new record cost in the US on Friday, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon ($1.55 per litre) for the first time ever. Polls have repeatedly suggested a majority of Americans oppose the war. It has additionally plunged Trump's popularity.

Notably, the same polling suggested Trump's approval rating has dropped to 33 percent, down from 40 percent since the fighting began. Where is the conflict headed?

Meanwhile, the renewed exchanges of strikes between Iran and the US mark an escalation in the six-month-long conflict, according to the director of the Middle East studies programme at George Washington University, Sina Azodi.

Azodi informed Al Jazeera that neither side will "cave in" as it "will not look good on them, so the only option is to escalate".

He remarked unless there is a political settlement, the war will continue.

"There's going to be more clashes between the Iranians and the Americans. There can be miscalculations. There can be more civilian casualties", especially on the Iranian side, Azodi remarked.

"The secretary of defence can send more troops to the region, but I don't think the Iranians are going to back down. They're going to resist that blockade and impose further costs on the United States."

He remarked the goal of the US and Iran is to force the other to back down. "The winner is going to be the one that can accept more costs and punishment, " Azodi remarked.

Commenting on Iran's strategy, Ali Akbar Dareini, an analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran, echoed Azodi, saying the US attacks on Iranian oil tankers are a "big issue" that Iran cannot afford to let "go unanswered".

"Does it create Iran surrender? No, it compels Iran. It incentivises Iran to lash out and retaliate" more harshly, Dareini informed Al Jazeera.

For now, US, Iran engaged in tanker war: Where is the months remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.