Why egg, chicken and milk prices are unlikely to fall soon

Why egg, chicken and milk rates are unlikely to fall shortly Egg demand and rates generally go up post-Diwali, with the setting in of winter and through the spring season.

Key points

• They have fallen to Rs 48, 750-49, 000 per tonne this month, but are still way above the September 2025 average of Rs 35, 327.
• The US Department of Agriculture has projected India's maize production in 2026-27 at 50 mt, a sharp decline from the record 55.1 mt of 2025-26.
• So are cottonseed (Rs 36, 000 versus Rs 30, 500) and rice bran (Rs 20, 400 versus Rs 13, 669) extractions.
• Farmers raise day-old chicks weighing 35-45 gm to 2-2.5 kg slaughter-ready broiler birds over 35-42 days.
• 6 min read New Delhi Sep 7, 2026 06: 28 AM IST.

Retail rates are ruling at Rs 7-9 per egg, depending whether they are purchased in 30-piece crates, dozens or smaller lots. (Express file photo: Kamleshwar Singh).

In 2013-14, the gross value continued from India's livestock sector was concerning 34% of that from crops. In 2023-24, the last year for which official data is available, that ratio touched 57%. Simply put, the value of milk, egg, meat and other animal products from Indian farms is steadily approaching that of crops – be it foodgrains, oilseeds, sugarcane and cotton or vegetables, fruits and spices. This progress is, nevertheless, being undermined by spiralling feed ingredient costs.

Poultry, cattle, buffaloes, sheep, goats and pigs need carbohydrates. It is their principal source of energy, supplied mostly by maize. Broiler chicken feed contains 55-65% maize by weight, with these at 50-60% for egg-laying bird feed and 15-20% in cattle feed.

Meanwhile, the accompanying charts show that the average cost of maize at the Alangeyam market of Tamil Nadu's Erode district has gone up from Rs 2, 537 to Rs 2, 759 per quintal between August 2025 and August 2026. The growth is even more pronounced from March 2026.

Rates of soyabean meal (50% protein content) at Madhya Pradesh's Indore, based on quotes at the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, have risen from Rs 38, 186 per tonne in August 2025 to Rs 58, 156 in August 2026. They have fallen to Rs 48, 750-49, 000 per tonne this month, but are still way above the September 2025 average of Rs 35, 327.

Notably, the same goes for other protein sources. As against their corresponding September 2025 average rate of Rs 24, 188 and Rs 24, 479, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, groundnut and rapeseed oilcakes are at present trading at Rs 38, 000 and Rs 32, 600 per tonne respectively. So are cottonseed (Rs 36, 000 versus Rs 30, 500) and rice bran (Rs 20, 400 versus Rs 13, 669) extractions.

"Soybean meal rates have come off their Rs 63, 000-64, 000 peak. But just when they are easing, maize rates are hardening. It's almost like a ping-pong game being played, " observed Divya Kumar Gulati, chairman of CLFMA (formerly Compound Livestock Feed Manufacturers Association) of India. The effects are already visible.

As per the indicative poultry farmgate rates set by the National Egg Co-ordination Committee (NECC), egg rates in Delhi are at Rs 600 per 100 pieces. Retail rates are ruling at Rs 7-9 per egg, depending whether they are purchased in 30-piece crates, dozens or smaller lots.

Egg demand and rates generally go up post-Diwali, with the setting in of winter and through the spring season. They drop with the rising temperatures and humidity levels over the summer and early monsoon months. The real dip happens in the festival period – from Shravan (end-July to early-September), Pitru Paksha (late-September to early-October) and Navratri (mid-October), to Diwali and Chhath Puja (early to mid-November) – when plenty of Hindu households avoid eggs.

This year, the NECC-suggested rates scaled Rs 725-730 per 100 eggs even in July, with the average of Rs 670.5 a whopping 38.7% higher than last year (see table). "Plenty of things came together. The extended summer and delayed monsoon rains due to El Niño caused water shortages, leading to heat stress and rising bird mortality rates. Additionally, July witnessed spike in both maize and soyabean meal costs, " explained Sanjeev Chintawar, chief operating officer of NECC.

While egg rates have since softened, thanks to Shravan, the feed cost challenge remains. "In the last four months, layer feed rates have climbed from Rs 24-26 to Rs 30-32 per kg. Feed constitutes 65-70% of the farmer's egg production cost, " continued Chintawar.

Farmgate broiler chicken rates, too, hit Rs 150-plus per kg of live weight throughout North India in late-June/early-July. Post Shravan, they have settled at around Rs 120 per kg.

"Broiler feed rates have surged from Rs 40 to Rs 46/kg over the past four months, shrinking the profit margins of farmers. Their total production cost now is roughly Rs 110 per kg, " remarked Ricky Thaper, joint secretary of the Poultry Federation of India.

Farmers raise day-old chicks weighing 35-45 gm to 2-2.5 kg slaughter-ready broiler birds over 35-42 days. The cycle is longer for layer hens. These commence laying eggs at 18-20 weeks of age and do so until they are 70-72 weeks old. Each bird lays 250-300 eggs annually.

Soyabean meal rates have come down somewhat in the last couple of weeks.

This is partly since farmers have sown almost the same area under soyabean in the current kharif (monsoon) season as last year. The condition of the crop, due for harvesting in October-November, is additionally stated to be normal to good so far, with no major insect pest or disease incidence being documented.

El Niño's impact has been less in soybean relative to other crops. It require more water and fertilisers. Further, some sizeable Indian poultry businesses with captive feed manufacturing facilities have contracted soyabean imports. It are estimated at 0.9 million tonnes (mt) in 2025-26 (October-September). It has improved the carryover stocks and probable availability for the new marketing year.

"Our greater concern is maize, where kharif acreage is significantly down (4.1%, going by administration data) and the yield outlook isn't additionally encouraging. Moreover, El Niño could hurt the prospects for the rabi (winter-spring) maize crop, " CLFMA's Gulati pointed out.

Notably, the US Department of Agriculture has projected India's maize production in 2026-27 at 50 mt, a sharp decline from the record 55.1 mt of 2025-26. It itself was a substantial jump over the preceding year's 43.4 mt.

With sugar rates on the boil, the Narendra Modi administration is projected to restrict mills from using any cane juice or high sucrose 'B-heavy' molasses for manufacturing ethanol in the upcoming crushing year beginning October.

If maize rates continue to rise – spilling over into livestock feed costs and ultimately what consumers pay for milk, eggs and meat – there could be a review of even diversion of the feed grain for ethanol production. That would create gathering the existing 20% blending in petrol (E20) itself tough in 2026-27.

Taken together, the developments around why egg, chicken and milk prices are unlikely to fall soon point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.