Claimed Israeli capture of Lebanese ridge reshapes negotiation dynamics

Beirut, Lebanon – On Friday, Israel asserted to have established operational control over the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon, a development in its fight against Hezbollah that analysts believe could additionally offer Israel greater leverage in negotiations with the Lebanese administration.

Key points

• A ceasefire was agreed in November 2024 but Israel violated the agreement more than 10, 000 times.
• Political and security analyst, Bassel Doueik, informed Al Jazeera that Ali al-Taher is crucial to the outcome of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations.
• Israel responded by re-invading Lebanon and launching attacks nationwide, including killing more than 350 individuals in what became known as Black Wednesday.
• On Sunday, the Israeli military killed seven individuals in the southern villages of Arab Salim and Nabatieh al-Fawqa.
• Nevertheless, Blanford does not expect the Israelis to attempt to hold Ali al-Taher.

Meanwhile, the Israeli operation to seize the ridge has been ongoing for weeks – and what it notes are Hezbollah tunnels underneath – with frequent drone and air strikes by the Israeli military. Analysts informed Al Jazeera that the strategically notable high ground is significant for the Israelis and Hezbollah since it overlooks a number of nearby regions, including the southern city of Nabatieh.

As well as its claims regarding a network of Hezbollah tunnels, Israel additionally notes the Iranian-backed Lebanese group had underground operations rooms, weapons stores and living quarters for fighters. Despite Israel's assertion that it has control over the ridge, military operations and attacks are reportedly ongoing.

That is despite the June "ceasefire" Israel agreed with Lebanon, but which is being repeatedly violated.

"Israel has continued to breach the ceasefire daily and the Lebanese government is still trying to negotiate because it doesn't have any other choice, " Doueik remarked. "However, if Israel actually occupies the hill, it will give it more of an upper hand in the negotiations because it will be occupying more land."

Israel and Lebanon began engaging in US-mediated direct negotiations in April, despite Hezbollah's opposition.

Notably, the discussions come after almost three years of Israeli attacks on Lebanon. When Hezbollah attacked Israel after the beginning of its genocidal war on Gaza, the latest war began on October 8, 2023. Israel then unilaterally intensified fighting in September 2024, eventually killing more than 4, 000 individuals in Lebanon and assassinating much of Hezbollah's military leadership, including longtime Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah. It additionally invaded southern Lebanon and began demolishing homes and infrastructure throughout the area.

For context, a ceasefire was agreed in November 2024 but Israel violated the agreement more than 10, 000 times. Hezbollah resumed its attacks in response to this year's US-Israeli war with Iran.

Israel responded by re-invading Lebanon and launching attacks nationwide, including killing more than 350 individuals in what became known as Black Wednesday. In late June, a framework agreement was confirmed between Tel Aviv and Beirut aimed at ending the fighting in Lebanon, launching so-called "pilot zones" where the Lebanese Army would disarm Hezbollah.

Despite the agreement and ongoing negotiations, Israeli forces never halted attacking Lebanon. Beirut notes it continues negotiations since it is the only option it has.

Israel now notes the framework agreement is failing, even if the Lebanese administration doesn't want to offer up on it just yet.

"The Lebanese are pushing for pilot zones in areas where the Israelis are currently operating, so they can pull back their troops, but Israel is more interested in pilot zones in areas it is not operating, " Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and author of a book regarding Hezbollah, informed Al Jazeera.

He continued that few in Lebanon appear optimistic concerning the pilot zone plan.

In recent weeks, Israel has focused plenty of of its attacks on the Qantara mountain range and the Ali al-Taher ridge, where Hezbollah fighters are noted to be.

On Sunday, the Israeli military killed seven individuals in the southern villages of Arab Salim and Nabatieh al-Fawqa. On Monday, 12 individuals were killed in Israeli attacks in Kfar Rumman.

Analysts remarked the ridge has geographic importance to both Hezbollah and Israel.

"The location is of strategic importance to Hezbollah, " Blanford remarked. "It has dominating views looking west over Nabatieh, dominating views over east over Marjayoun and Khiam to Shebaa, and part of Golan Heights in northern Israel looking south, so it is a strategic area and entirely credible that has a massive bunker complex within that hill."

"If the Israelis wanted to keep Ali al-Taher, they would have to seize the high ground to the north and northeast because otherwise it would be vulnerable to attacks by Hezbollah, " he remarked, recalling a similar dynamic during the Israelis' 18-year occupation of south Lebanon from 1982-2000. "I'm not sure the Israelis would want to extend that deep, so they would likely dynamite it and pull back their forces to more defensible ground."

Hezbollah continues to oppose direct negotiations with Israeli leaders. It has previously remarked it prefers indirect negotiations, similar to how the 2024 ceasefire was arranged.

"The negotiations seemed to have reached an impasse because Lebanon and Israel fundamentally disagree on the implementation of the pilot zones scheme, " David Wood, the International Crisis Group's senior analyst for Lebanon, informed Al Jazeera. "Lebanon argues that Israel has not withdrawn from any areas that it directly occupied, while Israel insists that it will not withdraw until Hezbollah disarms."

Notably, the question now is whether the Israeli advance in Ali al-Taher will offer them even more leverage over Lebanon in negotiations set to resume afterwards this month.

According to Doueik, negotiations were unlikely to change the status quo on the ground, with the Israeli administration focused on projecting an image of strength ahead of elections next month.

"The most crucial point in the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations is the upcoming October elections, " he remarked.

In short, claimed Israeli capture of Lebanese ridge reshapes negotiation dynamics is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.