SBP Likely to Keep Interest Rate Unchanged Next Week

For context, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is projected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 11.5 percent at its 14 September 2026 monetary policy gathering, according to Arif Habib Limited (AHL).

Key points

• MPC Session Date Monetary Policy Statement & Information Compendium Analyst Briefing Slide Deck Post-MPC Press Conference MPC Minutes – Week Ending2 Monetary Policy Report.
• While remittances rose 13 percent to $3.6 billion, pakistan's current account deficit narrowed 38 percent year-on-year to $328 million in July.
• Inflation has rose, with average CPI inflation reaching 10.18 percent in the first two months of FY27 compared with 3.56 percent a year earlier.
• While 12.5 percent expect a 50-basis-point rise, an AHL survey indicated 87.5 percent of respondents expect the policy rate to remain unchanged.
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MPC Session Date Monetary Policy Statement & Information Compendium Analyst Briefing Slide Deck Post-MPC Press Conference MPC Minutes – Week Ending2 Monetary Policy Report. 27-Jul-26 27-Jul-26 28-Jul-26 27-Jul-26 21-Aug-26 10-Aug-26. 14-Sep-26 14-Sep-26 15-Sep-26 – 09-Oct-26. 26-Oct-26 26-Oct-26 27-Oct-26 26-Oct-26 20-Nov-26. 14-Dec-26 14-Dec-26 15-Dec-26 – 08-Jan-27. 25-Jan-27 25-Jan-27 26-Jan-27 25-Jan-27 19-Feb-27 08-Feb-27. 08-Mar-27 08-Mar-27 09-Mar-27 – 02-Apr-27. 26-Apr-27 26-Apr-27 27-Apr-27 26-Apr-27 21-May-27. 17-Jun-27 17-Jun-27 18-Jun-27 – 12-Jul-27. Gold Cost Declines Again in Pakistan. Math Ahead of Decision.

While remittances rose 13 percent to $3.6 billion, pakistan's current account deficit narrowed 38 percent year-on-year to $328 million in July. The country additionally recorded a primary fiscal surplus of 2.9 percent of GDP in FY26, above the IMF target.

Inflation has rose, with average CPI inflation reaching 10.18 percent in the first two months of FY27 compared with 3.56 percent a year earlier. Nevertheless, SBP is anticipated to assess whether the growth becomes broad-based and persistent before changing rates.

Expansion additionally remains supportive. Large-scale manufacturing grew around 5 percent in FY26, its strongest performance in regarding four years. Stay Connected with ProPakistani.

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Taken together, the developments around SBP Likely to Keep Interest Rate Unchanged Next Week point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.