Lightning Houthi advance in Yemen may bring dangerous new dimension to Iran war

ByPaul Adams Diplomatic correspondent.

Key points

• Until lately, the anti-Houthi coalition known as the National Resistance held significant territory along Yemen's Red Sea coast.
• According to some estimates, the Iranian-backed rebels have captured as much as 130km (81 miles) of the country's strategically significant coastline.
• "Now that they are there, they're going to be entrenched, " Hisham al-Omeisi, senior analyst at the Brussels-based European Institute of Peace, informed the BBC.
• According to the Axios website, appeals for US intervention from the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have so far gone unanswered.
• Oil hits $100 a barrel for first time since July after US and Houthi strikes.

For context, the Houthis' lightning advance throughout the southern reaches of the Tihamah – Yemen's arid coastal plain – appears to have taken most observers by surprise.

Until lately, the anti-Houthi coalition known as the National Resistance held significant territory along Yemen's Red Sea coast. In a matter of days, much of this has fallen to the Houthis.

It's the group's most impressive military coup for a number of years, proving that despite a civil war that has lasted 12 years, devastating Saudi air raids and attacks by American, Israeli and British forces, the Houthis remain a force to be reckoned with.

With their opponents stunned and demoralised, it's unlikely the Houthis will be dislodged any time shortly.

Houthis claim major advance in Yemen and tighten grip on Red Sea shipping lane.

"Now that they are there, they're going to be entrenched, " Hisham al-Omeisi, senior analyst at the Brussels-based European Institute of Peace, informed the BBC. "And it's going to be a lot more costly to push them out."

Of course, the Houthis are not alone. They enjoy the backing of Iran, backing that has become even more notable for Tehran after the setbacks and defeats experienced by other parts of its so-called "Axis of Resistance" – Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza and the Assad regime in Syria.

"So they redirected their support to the Houthis, " al-Omeisi remarked. "And of course they need that support."

Even though most analysts agree that it's a mistake simply to describe the Houthis as Iranian puppets, events of the past few days raise an uncomfortable new reality.

Seven months after the US and Israel introduced their enormous, combined assault on Iran, the regime in Tehran now exerts authority over not just one, but two of the world's most significant maritime passages: the Strait of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, and the Bab al-Mandab, gateway to the Red Sea (and the Suez Canal).

"Now Iran, directly and through proxies, controls two of the most strategic choke points in the Middle East and the world, " notes Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at London's Chatham House think tank, "controlling more than 35% of the fuel and oil trade globally." "This is as much leverage as a nuclear bomb, " he states.

If the Houthis have additionally taken control of a number of key islands in the Red Sea, including Perim – which sits in the middle of the narrowest point of the Bab al-Mandab – then the group's ability to interfere with international shipping will be greatly enhanced.

As the group's actions after Israel's war on Gaza proved, shipping in the Red Sea is highly vulnerable to Houthi missiles, drones and small attack boats.

"They were able to control what was going in and out of the Bab al-Mandab and up towards Suez without having these territorial gains, " Yemen expert Iona Craig informed BBC Radio 4's Today programme on Friday.

"But of course now they're controlling the area immediately overlooking the Bab al-Mandab, and this gives them far more leverage."

Shipping firms are probable to be sceptical regarding the sincerity of a statement issued on Friday afternoon, in which the Houthi military stated that maritime navigation was "safe for all companies except for Saudi vessels, which have already been subject to a blockade".

In their earlier attacks, the Houthis remarked they were only targeting vessels linked to Israel, but in fact hit ships with no such connection, including a Norwegian-flagged tanker.

Craig remarked the Houthis may nevertheless refrain from indiscriminate attacks, fearing a repeat of Operation Rough Rider – six weeks of major US air and naval strikes in the spring of 2025. "They've already felt the wrath of the US, " she remarked. But would the US want to obtain involved anyway?

President Donald Trump's war with Iran is already unpopular. With oil rates creeping back up, it's doubtful that a new front would do much to enhance his approval ratings or his Republican party's chances in November's midterm US elections.

Axios writes that the US "is increasingly concerned about the escalating conflict in Yemen and is working to intensify its support for the kingdom while simultaneously seeking to avoid direct military involvement".

But it's not just the potential threat to the Bab al-Mandab that's causing fear in Saudi Arabia.

Satellite images of an apparent Houthi missile-and-drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline – a vital alternative route for oil exports after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year – point to an effort by Iran's Yemeni allies to add to the economic pressures generated by the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Even if Iran did not directly order the attack, it clearly stands to benefit.

When a Houthi delegation returned from the state funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, baraa Shaiban, a researcher and analyst at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, notes the origins of the latest upsurge in fighting – the worst since a United Nations-brokered truce in 2022 – can be traced back to July.

"Immediately after, the escalation started, " he notes, "and it looked very clearly that determined to now have a bigger foothold on the Red Sea".

With Yemen teetering on the edge of a return to all-out war, Saudi Arabia anxious regarding preserving its economic lifeline to the Red Sea and Donald Trump apparently reluctant to secure involved, America's conflict with Iran just took on a new and potentially dangerous dimension.

For the individuals of Yemen, displaced, bombed, starved and impoverished by a dozen years of civil war, recent developments can only produce their lives worse.

For now, lightning Houthi advance in Yemen may bring dangerous new dimension to Iran remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.