El-Sayed lead for Michigan Senate grows, helped by views of Trump

El-Sayed lead for Michigan Senate grows, supported by views of Trump.

Key points

• In the governor's race, Democrat Jocelyn Benson has built a double-digit lead over Republican John James, 51%-34%.
• By more than 3-1, 60%-18%, they oppose the development in Michigan of data centers, an industry Trump supports.
• Trump carried Michigan in 2024, albeit narrowly, and El-Sayed is a progressive who has never held elective office.
• Susan Page is the Washington Bureau chief of USA TODAY, where she write s regarding the White House and politics.
• With the slimmest of margins, progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed squeaks out a primary win for Democrats in Michigan's senate race.

All eyes are on Michigan for a must-win senate race for Democrats.

In Michigan's crucial Senate race, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is pulling ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in an election being driven by opposition to President Donald Trump, according to a Sept. 22 poll from Suffolk University.

Almost half of the probable voters in Michigan surveyed noted they were casting their ballot "to change the direction President Trump is leading the nation." That 48% dwarfed the 20% who want to backing Trump and the 28% who stated their vote didn't have much to do with him.

El-Sayed, a doctor and former public health official, now leads Rogers, a former congressman, 47%-40% in a race plenty of Republicans have viewed as their best chance to pick up a Democratic-held seat. Trump carried Michigan in 2024, albeit narrowly, and El-Sayed is a progressive who has never held elective office.

Two polls published last week demonstrated El-Sayed with a two or three-point edge over Rogers.

To gain a Senate majority in the midterms, Democrats need to hold all the seats they at present hold and flip four GOP seats. Earlier, that prospect had seemed improbable but independent analysts now put the odds around 50-50.

Notably, the poll of 500 probable general-election voters, taken by landline and cell phone Sept. 16-20, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

As a major liability for the GOP, the Suffolk University survey discovered Trump's approval rating has sunk to 31% in Michigan, where Democrats see the economic impact of his tariffs, especially those imposed on neighboring Canada. More: In Michigan, Senate squeaker for El-Sayed spotlights deep Democratic divisions. A different landscape from 2024.

"Trump's underwhelming approval rating, Canadian tariffs, opposition to data centers and a tepid Michigan economy have swung independents away from Republican candidates, " remarked David Paleologos, director of Suffolk's Political Research Center. "That's markedly different from 2024."

Meanwhile, the findings are full of red flags for the president and his party.

For context, the economy and inflation are by far the most significant problem shaping their vote, Michiganders say, and concern regarding "threats to democracy" ranks second.

Assessments of how the economy is doing are dismal, with 86% calling it fair or poor.

Two-thirds, 67%, are concerned regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks and auto parts. By more than 2-1, 54%-23%, they predict the tariffs will hurt Michigan's jobs and auto industry.

El-Sayed is now backed by 88% of Democrats, but in the primary he struggled for backing from Black voters, an notable part of the party's coalition in Michigan. In the poll, 72% of Black voters backed him, with 11% backing Rogers and 8% undecided. A test for the GOP — and the left.

El-Sayed's campaign is a test not only for Trump but additionally for the progressive voices who assisted him win the nomination over the establishment's preferred candidate, Rep. Haley Stevens.

Since then, conservatives have depicted El-Sayed as a socialist – though he describes himself as a capitalist – and the face of a radical Democratic Party. Vice President JD Vance called him "evil."

His election would be groundbreaking, making him the first Muslim U.S. Senator in history. The son of Egyptian immigrant parents, El-Sayed has discussed how his Muslim faith influences his values.

In the survey, 61% remarked a candidate's religion affected their vote "very little" or not at all. El-Sayed carried both groups easily.

More than a third, 37%, remarked it would impact their vote "somewhat" or "greatly." Both groups backed Rogers. Those who remarked religion would have the greatest impact overwhelmingly backed him, 88%-8%.

Susan Page is the Washington Bureau chief of USA TODAY, where she write s regarding the White House and politics. Share your feedback to support improve our site!

In short, el-Sayed lead for Michigan Senate grows, helped by views of Trump is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.