Are Ethiopians marching back to war in Tigray?

ByLucy Fleming and BBC Africa.

Key points

• When Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018, he replaced the EPRDF with the Prosperity Party, significantly watering down the TPLF's influence.
• Relations between Addis Ababa and the TPLF rapidly deteriorated until war erupted in 2020 in what was one of the most deadly conflicts this century.
• The AU mediator estimated some 600, 000 individuals died during the war.
• Ethiopia, the world's most populous landlocked nation, lost access to them when Eritrea seceded in 1993.
• Tigray residents, who have been trying to recover from a brutal two-year war that concluded in 2022, fear a return to full-scale conflict.

Fighting has erupted in Ethiopia's northern region of Tigray between regional forces and the national army.

There are reports of panic buying – and now internet and call services have been disrupted.

This means individuals cannot secure access to their funds via digital apps in what has become a largely cashless society after ATMs ceased working a number of months ago. Why has fighting broken out now?

It follows more than six months of worsening relations between the administration and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the party that runs Tigray.

Notably, the African Union (AU) brokered a peace accord, known as the Pretoria Agreement, between the two sides, ending the war almost four years ago – but a number of matters have remained unresolved that have inflamed tensions.

This year, both sides have been trading blame while troops have mobilised against the backdrop of pockets of fighting.

This week, major clashes erupted in Tigray and rapidly spread into the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. The two sides disagree over who began the latest escalation.

While the administration notes Tigrayan forces attacked first after seizing control of airports in Tigray, the TPLF notes it was responding to a federal offensive, including drone strikes. Who are the TPLF?

For much of Tigray's modern political history, it has been governed by the TPLF. It first emerged as an armed movement in the 1970s fighting Ethiopia's military administration.

It became a major force in the overthrow of the Marxist regime in 1991 and went on to become the most powerful component of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the coalition that governed the ethnically diverse country for almost three decades.

At times this proved contentious as some felt the TPLF held too much sway as Tigrayans only create up around 6% of Ethiopia's population.

For context, the AU mediator estimated some 600, 000 individuals died during the war. It totally cut off Tigray from the outside world and drove the region to the precipice of famine. An uneasy truce was agreed in November 2022. Why has the peace accord faltered?

There are four key problems – and two concern the fertile area of western Tigray.

In practice, the TPLF lost control of this territory in the early days of the war to Amhara, a region which neighbours Tigray to the west and whose fighters had fought on the side of the Ethiopian army.

Plenty of residents in Amhara believe the territory of western Tigray should never have been incorporated into Tigray when regional boundaries were redrawn after the military regime was ousted in 1991.

When its fighters seized control during the recent civil war, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Tigrayan individuals fled and are now living in homeless camps in Tigray and in the capital, Addis Ababa.

Notably, the TPLF wants western Tigray back and for those displaced from the territory to return. The administration states the future of the territory needs to be decided by a referendum.

For the administration, a major matter of contention has been disarmament. It notes the TPLF has only handed over old weaponry to the AU and has been hiding its arms.

Meanwhile, the two sides have additionally been at loggerheads over how Tigray should be governed. Under the terms of the accord, an interim administration was appointed by Abiy.

But attempts by the prime minister to influence affairs caused disputes within the TPLF itself and just before the general election in May. It was not held in Tigray since of the security situation, it restored its pre-war administration, disbanding the one set up by Abiy.

This has meant that civil servants are longer being paid and other services have been seizing up, worsening economic conditions. Who is backing the TPLF?

For context, a major development has seen the TPLF, once politically isolated inside Ethiopia, gain a number of key allies.

Earlier in September, it joined six other armed movements in forming what is called the Alliance for Survival. It includes those actively fighting the administration like Amhara's Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army.

Members of the new alliance have different grievances, but they do share one objective: they want to remove Abiy's administration from power.

So while the TPLF and Fano forces were on opposite sides during the civil war – and still disagree over the fate of western Tigray – they have temporarily put some of their differences aside.

When they felt surrounded and isolated, TPLF authorities say they do not want to repeat the situation of 2020.

Yet analysts caution the alliance may become tough to maintain as its members ultimately have particularly different interests. What is the government's position?

As well as blaming the TPLF for starting the recent fighting, it has criticised the new alliance, portraying it as an attempt to destabilise the country.

It has additionally accused Eritrea of supporting armed groups inside Ethiopia, something Asmara denies.

During the recent civil war, Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopian troops but the two neighbours. It have long had a volatile relationship, have again fallen out. Their disagreement centres on the Red Sea and its ports.

Ethiopia, the world's most populous landlocked nation, lost access to them when Eritrea seceded in 1993. Lately Prime Minister Abiy has been pushing for ownership of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – concerning 60km (37 miles) from the border – and hinted at taking it by force. What do we know regarding the bombing in Tigray?

Reports indicate that federal forces have been using drones and other military operations against Tigrayan forces.

Meanwhile, the government's stated justification is that it is responding to attacks and trying to defend federal positions and territory. Nevertheless, the circumstances surrounding individual strikes are challenging to independently verify.

Residents in one lately targeted town informed the BBC the drones had hit two schools. It local authorities remarked had been applied by Ethiopian troops as military bases during the war.

This suggests Addis Ababa may believe they are again being applied for a military purpose – by Tigrayan forces.

In practice, the attacks have come against the backdrop of reports that the TPLF has been forcibly recruiting young men to join its ranks. What is being done to stop the fighting?

Taken together, the developments around are Ethiopians marching back to war in Tigray? Point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.