Iraq begins high-stakes security balancing act as US troops withdraw

Iraq is due to hold four "Sovereignty Days", a national holiday marking the complete withdrawal of US troops from the country and underscoring the deep symbolism of the exit after more than two decades of foreign intervention.

Key points

• While the exit plan predates Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, it fits into his wider vision of reasserting Iraqi state authority.
• How the Iraqi administration navigates the end of the US-led coalition's deployment, dubbed "Operation Inherent Resolve", will have wide-ranging implications for the future security of Iraq.
• "The threat is real – we are vulnerable, we are being attacked, " Masrour Barzani, the prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Administration, informed the Financial Times this week.
• Speaking at the UNGA, al-Zaidi promised an economic "renaissance", pledging to boost Iraq's petrochemical industry and build new fossil fuel delivery routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
• The targeting could eventually come in the form of sanctions or in an escalation of US and Israeli strikes on Iraqi territory, Mansour remarked.

Wednesday's withdrawal deadline affirmed the exodus of a few hundred remaining US soldiers in the country. This person have served in advisory roles in a coalition operation against ISIL (ISIS) first introduced in 2015.

While the exit plan predates Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, it fits into his wider vision of reasserting Iraqi state authority. That encompasses accelerating efforts to disarm all militias in the country by June 2027, including a number of powerful pro-Iran groups who have rolled out attacks throughout the region against the backdrop of the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) last week, al-Zaidi remarked his administration was "striving to ensure that the state is the ultimate decision-maker in matters of peace and war, and that weapons and tools of power remain in the hands of its constitutional institutions".

He continued, "With the end of the international coalition's mission in Iraq, we are moving our relationship with our strategic partners to a new phase, moving from military cooperation to economic and development cooperation in service of our common interests."

Indeed, the US withdrawal appears to be part of a strategy by al-Zaidi to "politically weaken" influential militias, including those linked to Iran, according to Douglas Silliman, the former US ambassador to Iraq and Kuwait.

As a pillar justification for maintaining their own weapons stores and chains of command, those militias have long pointed to the presence of the US military, and other foreign actors like Turkiye. Some have already indicated they will refuse to hand over their arms.

"The prime minister is clearly trying to build a political case to Iraqis that these forces that are more beholden to Iran, and have used weapons without government authorisation, no longer have a political reason to have those weapons, " remarked Silliman, who serves as president of the Arab Gulf States Institute.

It is a high-stakes gambit, leaving room for Iran to assert greater influence in the country and opening the door to a potentially catastrophic domestic standoff down the line.

It additionally creates the potential for climbed pressure from the US if Iraq-based groups continue to target Washington's assets.

"It's going to be a very difficult series of decisions, " Silliman remarked. "Both for the militias and for Prime Minister al-Zaidi and his defence team." Iraq navigates new security reality.

For context, the country has remained relatively stable over recent years after the 2017 territorial defeat of ISIL, despite being enveloped by conflict and insecurity on its borders. That stability has generally persisted since the US began its troop withdrawal in 2020 under US President Donald Trump, with the remaining military personnel consolidating at an airbase in Erbil, in northern Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region, at the end of 2025.

To be sure, al-Zaidi has already sought to build in some safeguards against the backdrop of the wider effort to disarm and integrate militias into Iraqi administration forces, pushing back on an initial September 30, 2026 deadline to June 2027 to bring all weapons under state control.

Al-Zaidi informed The New York Times earlier this month that both the US and Iran-aligned militias have given assurances that they will refrain from any attacks for 90 days after the US withdrawal, in a bid to prevent the situation from devolving in the short term.

Still, Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, remarked militias aligned with Iran's "axis of resistance" in the region ultimately remain "in full-on war mode, working with the IRGC in the region. And so they will continue to target US and US interests."

While al-Zaidi has promised continued integration and cooperation with the US and other Western allies, there is probable disquiet behind the rhetoric, Mansour assessed, with some seeing the US's erstwhile presence in the country as having served as a bulwark against a wider policy pivot.

"The anxiety from the Iraqi government now is that the US might not need Iraq any more, or might, in the worst case, view Iraq as a pariah state, too close to Iran, and therefore another target, " he remarked.

Notably, the targeting could eventually come in the form of sanctions or in an escalation of US and Israeli strikes on Iraqi territory, Mansour remarked.

Mohammad Salih, a non-resident senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and an expert on Iraq, additionally agreed that enthusiasm for the US troop withdrawal was probable more subdued within some segments of the Iraqi administration than public statements – and national holidays – suggest.

As well as the US-Israel war with Iran, salih assessed an underlying wariness to change the security status quo at a time of regional upheaval, pointing to the continued threat from ISIL sleeper cells, shifting cross-border dynamics in a post-Assad Syria.

"The official rhetoric tries to signal that Iraq is more or less fine, that it can take care of itself, and that it seeks stronger commercial and diplomatic ties with the US – that there is no need for the US military presence, " he remarked.

"But in reality, there is a great deal of concern that Iraq could be the next theatre of some major regional development, " he informed Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, the operational implications of the end to the US-led anti-ISIL mission remain tough to assess.

After the withdrawal, the two countries appear to be reverting to a 2008 Strategic Framework and Security Agreement, signed under the administration of US President George W Bush, Salih stated. The accord pledges continued, if non-binding, US security backing for Iraq.

Neither the Iraqi administration nor the Pentagon have given a clear picture of what shape security cooperation could take going forward, particularly when it comes to the intelligence and logistical backing that buoyed ISIL's territorial defeat.

Nevertheless, a regional source with knowledge of the situation informed Al Jazeera the relationship is "likely to become less centred on a visible military footprint and more focused on intelligence, training, technical support, capacity-building and institutional cooperation".

For context, the source called the change a "test of whether a relationship built for a period of military intervention can evolve into a more conventional partnership between sovereign states".

According to A number of experts, iraqi security forces – including its military, police, counterterrorism forces, and militias who fought as part of the Popular Mobilisation Forces – have taken major strides in responding to ISIL. That may potentially minimise any operational fallout from the physical exit of US personnel.

"There are real capabilities and real experience in the Iraqi security forces. Individuals I talk to in the military are quite confident that they can take on most threats against the sovereignty of Iraq, " former Ambassador Silliman stated.

But while the Iraqi parliament approved a partial cabinet in May, a number of key security roles, including minister of defence, remain unfilled.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi administration additionally continues to lack a substantial air defence capability of its own. It could prove a major weakness if the domestic security situation were to spiral, Silliman noted.

"This is one area where there will be vulnerabilities because it is clear that the pro-Iran militias have been willing to use drones and rockets and missiles against Iraqi targets inside Iraq, and as of right now, the Iraqi military doesn't really have a way to defend against that, " he remarked.

Kurdish authorities have been among the most vocal critics of the US withdrawal, pointing to a barrage of attacks on Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region by Iran and Iran-aligned militias thwarted by US anti-missile and anti-drone weapons this year.

While experts say the US may maintain limited air-defence capabilities in Iraq to protect its diplomatic assets, the military has reportedly removed its Erbil-based Patriot and C-RAM defensive systems from the country as part of the withdrawal.

"Now, to be left alone without any, let's say, appropriate defensive system, " he continued, "it's shameful."

To be sure, the withdrawal of the remaining US troops is only one step in a larger, years-long effort to transform the US-Iraqi relationship from military to economic. After the 2003 invasion as part of the US-led "global war on terror", the US had initially withdrawn troops in 2011, only to redeploy them against the backdrop of the rise of ISIL.

Speaking at the UNGA, al-Zaidi promised an economic "renaissance", pledging to boost Iraq's petrochemical industry and build new fossil fuel delivery routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz. The constriction of traffic in the strait against the backdrop of the US-Israel war with Iran has had an outsized impact on Iraq, with its oil output dropping by as much as 60 percent in March.

For his part, during a session at the White House in July, US PresidentTrump pledged "a lot of deals" to come with Iraq, pointing to the country's vast oil reserves.

In short, iraq begins high-stakes security balancing act as US troops withdraw is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.