Why Ken Paxton could lose a Texas GOP Senate seat to James Talarico

Why Ken Paxton could lose a Texas GOP Senate seat to James Talarico Plagued by ethics allegations, the Senate candidate is unusually vulnerable for a red state Republican.

Key points

• Tamara Berger is miffed at the backhanded praise President Donald Trump offered Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas.
• Berger, 56, who lives in Seguin, Texas, remarked she was "disgusted" by Trump's presentation, even if he was joking, and called Paxton an "American through and through."
• The result: A state Trump carried by 14 percentage points in 2024 is surprisingly competitive.
• Among GOP voters who identify as "strong Republicans" Paxton holds a 74% approval, the Texas Politics Project survey demonstrates.
• Hispanic Business Council in Fort Worth, Texas, Talarico remarked farmers and ranchers have been "screwed over" by those in office.

Trump urges Republicans to vote as if he is on the ballot.

President Donald Trump asks Republican voters to turn out in the midterms.

"Let me tell you, it's true, he may not dress right, he may not talk exactly perfectly and he may not be the best looking guy I've ever seen, " Trump informed a laughing audience at the American Airlines Center on Sept. 9 regarding the Republican Senate nominee.

"But you know what he is? He's the greatest attorney general in America and he deserves to be your next senator."

For context, the president's remarks may have rubbed some conservative voters the wrong way, but they are an acknowledgement of how uniquely burdened Paxton is in the face of past bribery allegations and marital drama – even as Republicans are counting on the Texas attorney general to hold on to the seat plenty of in the GOP consider a must-win.

Asked what advice she would offer Paxton to win over voters on the fence, Berger. This person voted for Trump three times responded, "Provide me a break. Nobody is perfect."

"I don't agree with his private life, but I also don't know all the details, " she continued. "There's always two sides to a story, and that's not my place to judge. We've all had personal grievances. So has Biden. So has (Bill) Clinton. So has pretty much every other politician."

Her remarks highlight the reason Paxton is vulnerable to an upset by Democrat James Talarico: the Republican is viewed favorably by 43% of probable voters and unfavorably by 55%, according to a late September poll from Texas Southern University.

Polls additionally show Paxton with little appeal to some pivotal segments of the electorate. The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin discovered in August that just 29% of suburban voters viewed Paxton favorably, versus 54% who viewed him unfavorably. The same survey discovered 43% of Texas suburbanites looked at Talarico in a favorable light compared with 34% who viewed him unfavorably.

For context, the result: A state Trump carried by 14 percentage points in 2024 is surprisingly competitive. Multiple surveys show a tight race, with some finding Talarico up by as much as 6 percentage points.

"Republicans have arrived at this really problematic situation where they have a candidate that we know much of the professional Republican class thought was vulnerable and would be not the best candidate to have at the top of the ballot, " remarked James Henson, executive director of the Texas Politics Project. It conducts public opinion polling. "But that is counterbalanced by a Republican base that in the primaries just seemed determined to vote for him and and to nominate him." Majority of Texans say Paxton isn't honest or trustworthy: poll.

Trump supported Paxton defeat Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas primary this summer, despite warnings from some GOP strategists that tossing out the four-term senator in favor of someone less popular would be risky in an-already tough year for Republicans.

During the GOP primary, for instance, a Republican operative close to the Cornyn campaign informed USA TODAY that Senate leaders and former Trump campaign office-holders were pressuring the president to oppose Paxton, in light of his 2023 impeachment on bribery charges by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives.

Paxton was accused of using his power as state attorney general to benefit a real estate developer who supported remodel his home and who employed a woman with whom Paxton allegedly had an affair. The attorney general has consistently denied the bribe charges, and the state Senate acquitted him after a two-week trial.

In 2025 his wife, Angela Paxton, a state legislator, confirmed on X the two were getting a divorce based on "biblical grounds" after being married almost four decades. Other embarrassing episodes include being forced to return another lawyer's $1, 000 pen that he plucked at a Texas courthouse in 2013.

Notably, the Paxton campaign declined repeated requests for comment, but public polls show those controversies have seeped into the minds of most voters.

When asked how well the phrase "honest and trustworthy" describes Paxton, just one-third of voters remarked highly to somewhat well, a survey conducted by the Texas Politics Project in August discovered. More than half of respondents, nevertheless, stated the opposite, including 29% of Republicans and 44% of independents who noted "not at all."

Henson remarked the startling part of the poll is that only a quarter of Republican voters selected "very well" when asked concerning Paxton's honesty and trustworthiness.

"Ideally, your marquee candidate at the top of the ballot is going to be doing significantly better than that, " he remarked.

For context, the Paxton campaign, he remarked, faces three risks: Republicans who vote for Talarico or a third-party candidate, those who stay home and others who leave their ballot blank for Senate.

That, combined with a sinking approval rating for Trump, has put a seat that Cornyn won four times by comfortable margins in the "toss-up" column, according to forecasters such as the non-partisan Cook Political Report. 'Foolish': Republicans weigh options as Cornyn keeps swinging.

For context, the Talarico campaign has applied its own pressure to the sore spots in the GOP coalition, such as by highlighting how it hired a longtime Cornyn staffer and appealing to historically conservative factions. Speaking at a Sept. 28 forum hosted by the U.S. Hispanic Business Council in Fort Worth, Texas, Talarico remarked farmers and ranchers have been "screwed over" by those in office.

Republican Glen Whitley, a retired state judge, is supporting the political newcomer over Paxton. He remarked in an interview that corruption allegations have hounded Paxton for years, and Texans are fed up.

"Just at every turn people catch him doing things basically for himself instead of serving the public, " Whitley informed USA TODAY. "That's just not something that people appreciate of an elected official."

Among GOP voters who identify as "strong Republicans" Paxton holds a 74% approval, the Texas Politics Project survey demonstrates. But that drops to around 40% among those who self-described as "not very strong" or as "lean Republican, " the poll finds.

Republicans have additionally failed to reconcile since the primary battle, typified by Cornyn telling CNN on Sept. 25 that he has no intends to backing Paxton's campaign, "for all the reasons we pointed out in the primary."

For context, the senator has additionally called his GOP rival "lazy" and a "poor campaigner."

Republican Brenda Foster, 83, backed Cornyn in the primary. It saw the senator and allies spend $90 million criticizing Paxton, often on personal grounds. She admitted the attorney general is "coming with too much baggage, " but the Lubbock, Texas, native still intends to pull the lever for the GOP nominee.

"You only have two choices, and if you're going to vote, I think you'd be foolish to vote for Talarico, " Foster, a retired school teacher, remarked.

"My fear is that people will stay at home because they somehow can't support Paxton, and they don't see it the same way I do, " she continued. "I see it as a clear choice, but I do not think that some will necessarily vote for Paxton."

Scott Teer, 67, a facilities manager in Richardson, Texas, remarked he isn't a fan of Paxton's "moral character" but that ties to Trump, backing for border security and opposition to the Biden administration are persuasive enough. "I agree with him 90% of the time, " he remarked.

Others who spoke with the USA TODAY Network, such as Dylan Barron, 19, a student at the University of Texas at El Paso, emphasized how the Senate race represents an opportunity to hold on to Texas' conservative roots.

"I'm a Republican, " he remarked. "I'm not really a fan of the Democrats."

David de la Fuente, a senior analyst at Third Way, a Democratic think tank, remarked going into the final stretch of the midterms Paxton is considered the "single weakest Senate nominee" this year, comparing him unfavorably to Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

"Almost a decade ago, (Democrat) Beto O'Rourke came within three points of Ted Cruz, just because (Cruz) is not the most likable dude, " he remarked. "But, to our knowledge, Cruz has never cheated on his wife, has not committed any big crimes and O'Rourke still got within three points of him in a good Democratic cycle."

Public polling by the Texas Politics Project on the eve of the 2018 midterms indicated roughly 50% of suburban voters held a favorable view of Cruz versus 40% with an unfavorable one. Paxton trashes convention, touts personal uplift.

Paxton, a staunch Trump supporter, has tried to moderate his image by investigating controversial data centers and showcasing a softer side by talking regarding past health struggles.

Taken together, the developments around why Ken Paxton could lose a Texas GOP Senate seat to James point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.