Govt Wheat Policy Has Failed Again

On 11th July 2026, the Federal Minister of National Food Security, Rana Tanveer Hussain, chaired the 9th Wheat Board session and concluded that the "wheat production target has been achieved and the country has sufficient wheat reserves."

Key points

• 50, 000 Wheat Farmers Obtain Financial Backing Under Benazir Kissan Card.
• But by contrast, using satellite-based estimates, SUPARCO had put this year's production at just 27.48 million tons from 8.84 million hectares.
• Sindh Govt to Release Wheat to Control Flour Rates.
• Last year, the administration introduced Electronic Warehouse Receipts, allowing farmers to store wheat in approved warehouses for four months and apply electronic receipts to secure bank loans.
• As October sets in and farmers prepare to sow the next Wheat crop, we find ourselves asking the same questions all over again.

For context, the official presser additionally observed 'unanimous' agreement among the provincial representatives regarding the wheat stocks, with there being 'no shortage of wheat anywhere in the country'.

But just two weeks afterwards, another supposedly 'high-level' gathering of the same Wheat Board concluded that the 'collective demand of the provinces exceeded the available stocks' and that the 'import of 1 million tons of wheat was being explored '. Punjab Approves Rs. 10 Billion Subsidy for Affordable Flour.

Now either someone left out some zeroes during the first session, or we discovered a new variety of wheat that disappears between two meetings. Or maybe the systems we employ to evaluate the stocks of our most strategic commodity are just as good as the residents sitting over them. As it turns out, we do need more Wheat, in any case.

As October sets in and farmers prepare to sow the next Wheat crop, we find ourselves asking the same questions all over again. Why does the eighth-largest wheat producer in the world have to keep importing wheat? And, most importantly, how long will the farmers keep paying for these blunders?

Nobody knows for sure. Govt Wheat production estimates fall all over the place. Pakistan has been importing wheat every few years since 2019, but the more we look at the numbers, the more it becomes clear that these decisions have mostly been created without solid grounds.

Meanwhile, the administration uses a number of sources to estimate wheat production, including provincial Crop Reporting Services, SUPARCO, the Land Information and Management System, and FAO, but national-level planning mostly relies on provincial Crop Reporting Services data. 50, 000 Wheat Farmers Obtain Financial Backing Under Benazir Kissan Card.

For the current 2025-26 crop, the Federal Committee on Agriculture initially set a production target of 29.68 million tons from 9.65 million hectares, and the Economic Survey put the production estimate at 29.61 million tons from 9.48 million hectares, so technically we achieved the target or came close to it.

But by contrast, using satellite-based estimates, SUPARCO had put this year's production at just 27.48 million tons from 8.84 million hectares. That is regarding 2.1 million tons lower than the Economic Survey estimate and around 640, 000 hectares lower in cultivated area.

Even if we acknowledge that SUPARCO's satellite-based estimate is not yet fully field-validated, the gap with the official estimate is simply too sizeable to ignore. A difference of more than 2 million tons is sizeable enough to materially affect decisions on imports, reserves and overall wheat availability.

"Government's Crop Reporting Service relies on area frame sampling method for production estimates but shrinking farm sizes and shifting agriculture realities around inputs and mechanisation have significantly reduced the accuracy and reliability of CRS figures", remarked Khalid Saeed Watto, agriculture development professional talking to ProPakistani.

In practice, the consumption-side estimates have a similar difficulty. A publicly documented administration assessment put the Wheat demand for the period till April 2027 at 34.33 million tons, of which 30.83 million tons was for human consumption, 1.5 million tons for feed and seed, and 2.0 million tons for strategic reserves.

Meanwhile, the human consumption estimate is calculated based on a total population of 268 million and an average per capita consumption of 115 kg per annum (includes both commercial and household). Sindh Govt to Release Wheat to Control Flour Rates.

But the latest Household Integrated Economic Survey notes a 5.57 percent reduction in annual per capita Wheat consumption in rural and urban households, falling from 84 kg in 2018-19 to 79 kg in 2024-2025.

HEIS figures don't include commercial and industrial employ, but still, that reduction should have been reflected in the government's own demand estimates as well. It have been using the figure of 115kg per annum for a number of years now. Years of Failed Policies.

For context, the current crisis traces its roots to the Rs. When 3.59 million tons were imported under the caretaker administration based on "completely unreliable" stock and demand data, alongside the "intentional delay in public procurement to favour the private sector, " according to the Auditor General of Pakistan, 300 billion wheat scandal of 2023-24.

This left the market with excessive stocks, followed by a larger-than-expected domestic harvest. But instead of honouring the confirmed rate of Rs. 3, 900 per maund, the Punjab administration abruptly cut large-scale procurement in 2024, forcing farmers to sell wheat for around Rs. 3, 000 per maund or lower and incur significant losses.

While the PML-N-led Punjab administration took the political heat, farmers paid the cost. Inquiry committees were formed, and bureaucrats shuffled, but the matter was eventually buried to protect influential authorities and the caretaker administration. It had closer ties to the establishment.

These failures became the justification for subsequent "deregulation." Administration procurement was undeniably inefficient, leaving behind a circular debt-like burden exceeding Rs. 680 billion. But the administration withdrew hastily without ensuring accountability for the previous crisis or fixing the systems employed to estimate wheat stocks and demand.

Last year, the administration introduced Electronic Warehouse Receipts, allowing farmers to store wheat in approved warehouses for four months and apply electronic receipts to secure bank loans. In theory, this addressed farmers' cash flow difficulty without forcing them to sell their wheat.

But the scheme introduced too late and without adequate infrastructure. Meanwhile, the government's supposed "free market" policy additionally brought unprecedented police action against private wheat stocks and crop movement, including reports of action against farmers storing their own wheat, nothing less than tragic in an agricultural country.

It additionally brings market uncertainty, leading to less investment by the businesses for the transition towards a free market. PM Shehbaz Approves Duty-Free Livestock Imports to Boost Exports.

This year, Punjab tried another experiment, aiming to build strategic reserves of around three million tons through indirect procurement. It selected 11 firms and offered bank-financing assistance, a 70 percent subsidy on financing mark-up, free access to Food Department storage and administration personnel.

Yet the program failed as financing negotiations between banks and most selected firms hit roadblocks.

Shifting harvesting patterns and climate change have continued further complications. As happened this year, mechanisation has shortened the harvesting window, causing sizeable quantities of wheat to reach markets simultaneously and pushing costs down.

But a short-term influx does not necessarily indicate higher overall production. Market sources documented lower yields in a number of districts than last year; as this became apparent, rates rose throughout Punjab, exposing another flaw in the procurement system.

For context, the administration anticipated firms to purchase at a benchmark of Rs. 3, 500 per maund, but the arrangement's pricing and financing terms left questions regarding their incentive to procure when market costs moved above or below that level. Straightforward to Sell the Farm Vote.

One of the reasons we see governments making abrupt import decisions every few years, despite not having the right data picture, is fear and panic. 2022 Economic Survey notes that wheat is a strategic crop and any shortfall in its production can create an awkward situation leading to political uncertainty.

In Pakistan, any political uncertainty translates to economic uncertainty in no time and is especially terrible for a country that is always looking for the next IMF grant and has to show some stability to its lenders.

So it makes sense why successive governments always feel like it's better to import and have more wheat even if it causes a market glut and hurts the farmers, instead of having wheat shortages and sky-high flour rates. It will cause countrywide panic. But I think there's one more aspect of it which makes it somewhat more sinister than simple strategic decision-making. Govt Approves Lowest Bid to Import Wheat for Sindh.

As most of them still vote based on caste and what their elders say, I think our successive political governments have learnt that it's significantly easier to sell out the farm vote in this country than that of urban consumers since the rural communities are easier to persuade and bring back when it's election time.

Notably, the administration needs to establish a credible wheat production estimation system using a framework based on all available methods and investigate major discrepancies before making import decisions. It should publish quarterly balance sheets of available wheat stocks and update wheat demand using household surveys and commercial trends instead of relying on the long-standing 115 kg per capita benchmark.

There is additionally a need for affordable crop insurance that shares the risk of climate-related losses and sharp harvest-time rate declines between farmers, insurers and the administration, and to expand EWR financing infrastructure.

Some of these measures are already underway, but the point is that they should have been in place before pulling the rug out from under farmers suddenly, leaving them to bear the cost of a transition they neither designed nor had the means to survive. Stay Connected with ProPakistani.

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Taken together, the developments around govt Wheat Policy Has Failed Again point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.