Super El Niño sets another record as it strengthens to 'unprecedented levels'

BySimon King Lead Weather Presenter.

Key points

• Comparisons with previous major events in 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 show much more widespread ocean warmth throughout the Pacific and into the Gulf of Mexico.
• Forecasts from both the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate El Niño is projected to peak in December.
• While parts of East Africa experienced devastating floods, during the 1997-98 event, severe drought throughout south-east Asia contributed to extensive peat and forest fires.
• Solid El Niño events typically suppress Atlantic hurricanes while boosting activity throughout parts of the Pacific, a pattern that has additionally been observed during 2026.
• Although the most widespread impacts are projected afterwards this year and into 2027, El Niño's influence is already being felt throughout parts of the world.

El Niño has continued to strengthen to what some scientists are calling "unprecedented levels", weeks before its projected peak in December. A number of key measures are now in record territory.

In its latest update, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) remarked average weekly sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific have reached their highest level on record, external.

It comes after scientists declared a new record for daily sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific in September, exceeding the previous record set during the particularly robust El Niño of 2015.

While record sea-surface temperature anomalies and exceptional subsurface warmth have been observed, temperatures above 30C have additionally been recorded for the first time in parts of the tropical Pacific.

These measurements come from the region of the equatorial Pacific applied to monitor El Niño.

El Niño is a naturally-occurring pattern. It happens regarding every two to seven years and tends to last for around a year.

Nevertheless, the Pacific is additionally warming due to human-induced climate change and this is starting to mask the strength of the natural warming during El Niño.

To remove this extra warming signal, Australian and US official forecasters are now using a Relative Ocean El Niño Index (RONI), to enable better comparison to historical events.

Using that measure, the BOM's average weekly data – while only going back to 2008 – is significant as it now exceeds levels during the record-breaking December of 2015.

"We are currently witnessing an El Niño event that is unprecedented in the historical record, " Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, informed the BBC. Solid El Niño in a warmer world.

Meanwhile, the warmth throughout the Pacific now extends well beyond the tropical region normally employed to monitor El Niño.

Part of this reflects the long-term warming of the oceans but scientists say it is not the whole story.

"The strength of El Niño this year is spilling out of the traditional El Niño region, " Dr Hausfather remarked. Developing El Niño becomes strongest on record weeks before projected peak. What is El Niño and why could it mean record temperatures?

Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) notes there is at present no evidence that climate change is making El Niño events stronger or more frequent, external. Nevertheless, it remains an active area of scientific research.

What is clearer is that El Niño releases extra heat from the oceans into the atmosphere.

Historically, global temperatures during El Niño years are typically higher than during neutral years.

Combined with human-driven climate change, that extra heat is projected to assist create 2026 one of the warmest years on record, with unusually high global temperatures probable to continue into 2027. No two El Niño events are exactly alike.

In practice, the strength of an El Niño does not automatically determine the scale of impacts in any one location. Regional effects can vary considerably from one event to another.

Nevertheless, some common patterns are emerging when compared with previous super El Niños.

Meanwhile, the event additionally assisted create 1998 the warmest year on record at the time. A similar pattern developed during the 2015-16 El Niño.

While southern Africa experienced one of its worst droughts in decades, triggering a major humanitarian crisis, severe drought and wildfire activity returned to parts of south-east Asia.

Another recurring signal is tropical cyclone activity. Solid El Niño events typically suppress Atlantic hurricanes while boosting activity throughout parts of the Pacific, a pattern that has additionally been observed during 2026.

In practice, the World Meteorological Organisation notes drought and flood-related disruption is already being noted in a number of regions, with growing worries over food security in parts of East Africa and the Asia-Pacific.

Dr Hausfather remarked the latest projections were "astonishing" and are probable to set new records "by a remarkable amount". What questions or reservations do you have concerning El Niño?

In short, super El Niño sets another record as it strengthens to ' unprecedented levels&#039 is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.