What is potash, and why is the US importing it from Belarus?

Published On 14 Oct 202614 Oct 2026.

Key points

• A 30, 000-tonne shipment of potash is projected to arrive at the Port of New Orleans on Wednesday, according to data from Kpler.
• But since Trump returned to the White House in 2025, his administration has pursued direct negotiations with Lukashenko.
• Belarus has additionally faced Western sanctions for allowing Russian forces to apply its territory in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
• "The United States is working on a massive Deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus, " Trump remarked in the post.
• Before this agreement, exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya remarked that a agreement with Lukashenko comes with risks.

As President Donald Trump seeks cheaper fertiliser for American farmers against the backdrop of rising costs linked to the Iran war and a trade dispute with Canada, the United States is preparing to receive its first shipment of Belarusian potash in four years.

Notably, a 30, 000-tonne shipment of potash is projected to arrive at the Port of New Orleans on Wednesday, according to data from Kpler. The shipment follows Washington's decision to lift sanctions on major Belarusian potash producers in March, opening an avenue for trade to resume.

Although this shipment from Belarus accounts for only a fraction of the 5.6 million tonnes of potash the US imported last year, it signals a tentative opening of relations between Washington and Minsk.

Trump has remarked the US is working on a larger agreement to purchase Belarusian fertiliser at rates substantially below what it pays Canada, its dominant supplier. But analysts have questioned whether Belarus can compete with Canadian producers on cost and expand exports enough to significantly change the US market. What is potash and why does the US need it?

Potash is a potassium-rich mineral that is a primary fertiliser element. Potassium, an essential plant nutrient, has no substitutes, and potash is widely applied in agriculture, including in the cultivation of corn and soybeans.

Meanwhile, the US depends heavily on imports to meet its potash needs. Canada accounts for almost 80 percent of US potash imports, according to the US Geological Survey's 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries. Russia accounts for 12 percent, the second-largest share of US potash imports.

That reliance has created fertiliser supply an economic and political concern, particularly as farmers face rising production costs. In recent months, US farmers have documented higher fuel and fertiliser costs, putting pressure on already tight profit margins.

Trump has reportedly been concerned that financial strain may cost Republicans some of the US farmer vote in this year's midterms. In 2024, Trump won 78 percent of the vote in farming-dependent counties. At an agriculture roundtable in Wisconsin in June, Trump promised fertiliser rates would "go way down" as the US emerged from the Iran conflict.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to pressure on global fertiliser markets, particularly for nitrogen-based products. Potash, nevertheless, is less directly exposed to the crisis, with the US relying heavily on supplies from Canada.

Trump has argued that buying Belarusian potash could reduce those costs. An extra supplier could additionally offer US buyers more options in a market dominated by Canadian imports.

For farmers, the immediate benefits remain uncertain. Fertiliser is one of a number of major expenses facing agricultural businesses, alongside diesel fuel and machinery. Even a reduction in potash rates would not necessarily offset increases elsewhere. Can Belarus offer cheaper fertiliser?

In September, Trump boasted on social media regarding striking a potential potash agreement with Belarus.

"The United States is working on a massive Deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus, " Trump remarked in the post. "The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers."

Trump promoted Belarusian potash as a less expensive alternative to Canadian supplies, but the economics of delivering it to American buyers complicates that plan.

Belarus is landlocked, and EU restrictions are affecting its export routes, forcing potash shipments to take a more circuitous path through Russia. The incoming cargo was loaded at the Russian port of Bronka near St Petersburg, according to reporting by the Financial Times.

Those logistical challenges could raise transportation costs and create Belarusian supplies less competitive, even if the product itself is cheaper.

For context, the scale of the exports additionally matters. A single shipment demonstrates that trade between the US and Belarus has resumed, but it does not mean Belarus can replace a substantial share of Canadian potash or drive down costs throughout the US market.

Nevertheless, access to an alternative supplier could provide Washington greater leverage in negotiations with Canadian producers, potentially helping US buyers secure more competitive potash rates.

Could Belarus replace Canada as the main potash supplier in the US?

When he unleashed a volley of tariffs on most trading partners, including Canada, relations between the US and Canada have been strained since Trump's second term began. His administration initially imposed a 25 percent tariff on plenty of Canadian imports in March 2025, including potash, but reduced that to 10 percent after pushback from agricultural groups and lawmakers. Potash that meets the requirements of the USMCA trade agreement – the trade accord between the US, Mexico and Canada – is exempted. Most Canadian potash imports qualify under the USMCA and remain duty-free.

Trump has maintained that Washington would continue buying from Canada, even as Belarus offered to sell potash at a lower cost.

But the viability of Belarus as a major supplier remains unlikely. In September, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko remarked the country could not supply substantial volumes of potash fertiliser to the US.

"Even if we wanted to supply to other, Western markets, we simply do not have those volumes – everything is contracted, " Lukashenko remarked.

Whether this October shipment becomes part of a much larger accord will depend on the ability to sustain exports and the durability of the diplomatic opening between Washington and Minsk.

Why did the US impose sanctions on Belarus, and why are they being lifted?

For context, the planned shipment marks a significant step in the restoration of trade between Washington and Minsk. It have spent years being at odds over Belarus's human rights record and its backing for Russia's war against Ukraine.

In practice, the US, under former Democratic President Joe Biden, imposed rose sanctions on Belarus in 2021 after Lukashenko's authoritarian administration cracked down on mass protests against its disputed 2020 presidential election. Belarus has additionally faced Western sanctions for allowing Russian forces to apply its territory in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

But since Trump returned to the White House in 2025, his administration has pursued direct negotiations with Lukashenko. Those discussions have led to the release of political prisoners in exchange for lifting US sanctions, creating a pathway towards renewed economic ties.

In March, Belarus published 250 political prisoners under a US-brokered agreement. Washington subsequently lifted sanctions on major Belarusian potash producers and eased restrictions on a number of financial institutions. In September, US special envoy John Coale confirmed a further agreement under which Belarus would release 25 prisoners in exchange for sanctions relief.

In practice, the rapprochement has opened the door to proposals for deeper commercial cooperation.

On September 29, Lukashenko remarked he had agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin that Russian state-controlled energy business Gazprom would participate in a project to build a nitrogen fertiliser plant in Belarus. He proposed inviting the US to join the project using American technology, according to the Reuters news agency.

"Our position is that it is not time to trade with the regime while all the income from potash goes to repression, goes to support of the Russian war machine, " Tsikhanouskaya informed AFP in September.

In practice, the proposal has not established that Washington will participate in the project. But alongside Trump's stated interest in buying Belarusian potash, it illustrates how Minsk is seeking to turn improved political relations into broader commercial opportunities.

For now, what is potash, and why is the US importing it from Belarus? Remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.