How cold will winter be? Your official winter weather forecast is here

How cold will winter be? Your official winter weather forecast is here NOAA's Climate Prediction Center published their outlook for December-February.

Key points

• The center's forecast covers the months of December 2026, January 2027 and February 2027.
• According to the forecast, drought conditions are forecast to improve or end in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast.
• The Climate Prediction Center's winter outlook points to unusual warmth throughout the northern United States.
• Overall, the CPC remarked that wetter-than-average conditions are most probable throughout the southern tier, from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast.
• Only the northern Rockies and the northern Great Lakes are projected to see a drier-than-normal winter, the CPC stated.

For context, the Climate Prediction Center's winter outlook points to unusual warmth throughout the northern United States. Ready for a warmer, wetter winter?

In practice, the particularly robust El Niño is forecast to be the main driver of weather throughout the United States this winter, forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center remarked Oct. 15 in their annual winter outlook. So what does this mean for our weather?

Basically the two main headlines in the winter forecast are unusual warmth throughout the nation's northern tier, and ongoing storminess throughout the southern tier.

"As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South, " remarked Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, in an official note.

"While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter, " he continued.

Meanwhile, the center's forecast covers the months of December 2026, January 2027 and February 2027. It is known as meteorological winter. Where will it be colder-than-normal in winter 2026-2027?

No part of the United States is forecast to see a colder-than-normal winter. While the Southwest has equal chances of seeing above or below normal temperatures this winter, the Climate Prediction Center remarked, the Deep South and Florida are forecast to see a near-normal winter, temperature wise. Where will it be warmer-than-normal in winter 2026-2027?

Much of the nation's northern tier should see a warmer-than-normal winter. The greatest likelihood for above-normal temperatures include the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes states, and New England. Snow forecast unclear, but NOAA predicts precipitation.

Meanwhile, the forecast published Oct. 15 predicts only where above- or below-normal temperatures and above- or below-normal precipitation are most probable.

This winter forecast does not specify how much precipitation will fall as rain, snow or ice, only that more or less is probable overall. Snow forecasts depend upon the strength and track of winter storms. It generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance, the center has remarked. What regarding the polar vortex?

With the powerful El Niño, NOAA's Jon Gottschalk remarked that tends to bring concerning a stronger, more stable polar vortex. This would favor less Arctic air outbreaks over the United States, he remarked.

Nevertheless, he went on that cold outbreaks and snowstorms are still feasible, but just less probable.

Nevertheless, drought conditions are favored to develop or worsen throughout parts of the northern Rockies, along with northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington. What do other winter forecasts say?

While much of the northern tier sees a warmer winter with less snow than normal, accuWeather additionally issued its winter forecast earlier in October, and the private forecaster additionally predicts that the powerful El Niño will dominate the 2026-27 winter, bringing a wetter, stormier pattern to much of the southern United States and West.

Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate. SMS Facebook Twitter Email. Share your feedback to support improve our site! Share your feedback to support improve our site!

Taken together, the developments around how cold will winter be? Your official winter weather forecast is here point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.