Alberta heads to polls to decide whether to hold vote on separation from Canada

Individuals in the province of Alberta head to the polls on Monday to decide whether to hold a referendum at a afterwards date on separating from Canada.

Key points

• If Albertans do vote on Monday to move ahead with a binding referendum, that could happen as shortly as 2027, Smith has stated.
• The separatist movement is led by Mitch Sylvestre, a gun shop owner from the town of Bonnyville, and Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer based in Calgary.
• Smith, the leader of the United Conservative Party of Alberta (UCP), has defended her decision to put the matter to voters.
• Successive Liberal governments of the last 10 years have put environmental policies above helping Alberta develop its oil and gas sector, they argue.
• After the judge's ruling, First Nations groups have branded Smith's decision to allow the voting process to play out as "undemocratic" and "authoritarian".

After a grassroots group gathered regarding 300, 000 signatures on a petition that asked for a binding referendum on separation, the vote was called earlier this year by the leader of the province, Danielle Smith.

Plenty of of those who backing separation say the oil-rich province's economic expansion has been stifled by the environmental policies of Canada's central administration in Ottawa.

But those who want Alberta to remain part of Canada – who include Prime Minister Mark Carney – have pressed the country to show unity in the face of external pressures.

Though the pre-vote debate alone has proven divisive, polls have suggested that most of Albertans would vote to remain in Canada.

Another group collected signatures for its own petition that resisted separation. It was signed by more than 400, 000 residents. The province's population is regarding five million residents.

Smith's decision to allow Monday's vote came in spite of the fact that a court blocked the pro-separation petition, saying it failed to consult indigenous First Nations whose land would be affected if the province separated from Canada.

Smith, the leader of the United Conservative Party of Alberta (UCP), has defended her decision to put the matter to voters. She opposes separation herself, but notes the process gives the province's residents a chance to have their say on the problem.

In practice, the key question on the voting paper will ask: "Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?"

Why is Alberta voting to separate from Canada, and how probable is it to happen?

In practice, the separatist movement is led by Mitch Sylvestre, a gun shop owner from the town of Bonnyville, and Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer based in Calgary. They are both members of a group called the Alberta Prosperity Project. It argues that the province's economic expansion has been hindered by years of Liberal party rule in Ottawa.

Successive Liberal governments of the last 10 years have put environmental policies above helping Alberta develop its oil and gas sector, they argue. They say Alberta would obtain to keep more of its wealth if it splits from Canada.

Chris Scott, founder of pro-separatist group Let's Talk Alberta, informed BBC News on the eve of the poll that the campaign had already achieved some of its goals, regardless of what happened on Monday. "The key is the conversation has started and it needs to continue, " he remarked. "What's started can't be stopped now, " he continued.

Those who oppose separation say a newly independent Alberta would be left responsible for billions of dollars in debt. They warn that the uncertainty – which they liken to the UK's Brexit vote to leave the European Union in 2016 – would drive thousands of jobs and investment out of the province.

Carney has called on voters to deliver a decisive vote against separation. Speaking at a rally on Thursday, he cautioned that the stakes were high.

"The world has become more dangerous and divided. Some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us, " Carney remarked, echoing warnings he has produced previously regarding his country's ongoing trade war with the United States.

Alongside the separation question, Albertans will vote on nine other problems – a number of which focus on whether the province should have more control over its immigration system.

Hundreds of thousands of individuals had voted early by post ahead of Monday, and early figures suggested a robust voter turnout.

Meanwhile, the province's election authorities will count the ballots by hand, and have 48 hours to complete the task – starting from no earlier than 20: 00 local time on Monday (02: 00 GMT on Tuesday).

Meanwhile, the key question, on separation, will be counted in its entirety first. Authorities have stated results should be available in the early hours of Tuesday.

Taken together, the developments around alberta heads to polls to decide whether to hold vote on separation point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.