Pakistan’s GDP Growth Revised Down to 3.65%

While expansion slowed to 2 percent in the final quarter, according to updated national accounts approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC) on October 19, pakistan's economic expansion for fiscal year 2025-26 has been revised down to 3.65 percent from an earlier.

Key points

• Nevertheless, pharmaceuticals contracted 8.87 percent, iron and steel products declined 7.84 percent, chemicals fell 2.53 percent and leather products declined 1.95 percent.
• While per capita income stood at Rs, 126.4 trillion, or $450.4 billion, in FY26.
• Large-scale manufacturing expansion, measured through the Quantum Index of Manufacturing, was lowered to 5.01 percent from 6.11 percent.
• The committee additionally revised economic expansion for FY25 to 3.11 percent from the previously estimated 3.18 percent.
• Agriculture's annual expansion estimate for FY26 was revised upward to 3.50 percent from 2.89 percent.

Notably, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), in a press release after the committee's 118th gathering, noted the revised estimates incorporated updated import data and changes to annual and quarterly economic indicators. The economy was valued at Rs. While per capita income stood at Rs, 126.4 trillion, or $450.4 billion, in FY26. 531, 897, equivalent to $1, 896.

For context, the committee additionally revised economic expansion for FY25 to 3.11 percent from the previously estimated 3.18 percent. The NAC revised expansion estimates for the first three quarters of FY26 and approved a new estimate for the fourth quarter. Chinese IPPs Demand Rs. 498 Billion in Unpaid Dues.

GDP expansion for the first quarter was adjusted slightly downward to 3.89 percent from 3.92 percent. While the third-quarter estimate climbed to 4.42 percent from 3.99 percent, expansion in the second quarter was revised upward to 4.31 percent from 4.05 percent.

In practice, the economy grew 2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 6.07 percent in the corresponding period of FY25. The PBS attributed the modest expansion partly to the high base established a year earlier.

Agriculture grew 3.71 percent in the final quarter, compared with 0.58 percent a year earlier. Services expanded 3.62 percent, down from 4.21 percent. Industry contracted 4.70 percent after recording expansion of 20 percent in the same quarter last year.

In practice, the industrial contraction was largely associated with a 33.19 percent decline in electricity, gas and water supply. It the PBS linked to lower subsidies, a high deflator and a substantial base effect. Economy Now Solid, Inflation Down: SBP Governor. Agriculture expansion improves as crop output rises.

Agriculture's annual expansion estimate for FY26 was revised upward to 3.50 percent from 2.89 percent. The improvement reflected stronger performance by significant crops and other agricultural activities.

Expansion in notable crops rose to 1.59 percent from an earlier estimate of 0.65 percent, backed by wheat and maize. Other crops recorded expansion of 4.28 percent, up from 2.43 percent.

Meanwhile, the PBS cited higher production of pulses, fruits, tomatoes, oilseeds and green fodder. Pulses production rose 6.3 percent, fruit output rose 1.3 percent, tomato production climbed 44 percent, oilseed output grew 5.4 percent and green fodder production climbed 2.4 percent.

Livestock expansion was revised slightly downward to 3.71 percent from 3.75 percent. While fishing grew 1.39 percent during the fiscal year, forestry expanded 10.80 percent. Foreign-Trained Civil Servants Must Verify Degrees or Be Marked Absent.

For FY25, agriculture expansion was revised down to 1.32 percent from 1.53 percent, mainly as of a downward adjustment to forestry. Industrial expansion estimate cut as manufacturing slows.

For context, the industrial sector's FY26 expansion estimate was reduced to 3.34 percent from 3.51 percent. Although mining and quarrying performed better than previously estimated, the revision reflected weaker large-scale manufacturing and changes in electricity, gas and water supply.

Mining and quarrying expansion was revised upward to 1.52 percent from 0.38 percent, backed by increases in gas production of 2.84 percent, crude oil output of 5.12 percent and coal production of 2.73 percent.

In practice, a number of manufacturing industries continued to expand. Automobile production grew 57.77 percent, transport equipment rose 42.36 percent, electrical equipment rose 14.25 percent and rubber products grew 14.19 percent. Food manufacturing rose 7.03 percent, petroleum products rose 9.7 percent, tobacco expanded 12.61 percent and furniture production climbed 22.69 percent. Pakistan Reports Over $18 Billion Trade Data Discrepancy to IMF.

Construction expansion was revised upward to 6.30 percent from 5.73 percent, reflecting climbed public-sector construction spending. Services sector expansion revised downward.

Services sector expansion for FY26 was revised to 3.81 percent from 4.09 percent, with the wholesale and retail trade sector accounting for a significant downward adjustment.

Wholesale and retail trade expansion fell to 2.37 percent from 3.71 percent. It the PBS attributed to lower manufacturing output and imports. After upward revisions in railways, water transport and air transport, in contrast, transportation and storage expansion improved to 3.23 percent from 2.31 percent.

Information and communication expansion was revised upward to 9.53 percent from 7.52 percent. Finance and insurance activities additionally improved, with expansion rising to 4.23 percent from 0.32 percent.

Other services remained in positive territory. Public administration and social security grew 5.67 percent, education expanded 4.17 percent, human health and social work rose 5.52 percent, and other private services rose 4.01 percent.

Meanwhile, the updated national accounts put Pakistan's economy at Rs. 126.4 trillion, or $450.4 billion, in FY26, compared with Rs. 114.9 trillion, or $408.7 billion, in FY25. Per capita income reached Rs. 531, 897, equivalent to $1, 896, during FY26. Stay Connected with ProPakistani.

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Taken together, the developments around pakistan's GDP Growth Revised Down to 3.65% point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.