Huge setback for Alberta's separatist movement after decisive defeat

ByNadine Yousif, Edmonton and Jessica Murphy, Toronto.

Key points

• They held two separation referendums, in 1980 and 1995, both of which were defeated by a close margin.
• And despite backing for Quebec sovereignty being at historic lows, a newly elected provincial administration has pledged to hold a third referendum on independence by 2030.
• The outcome was celebrated almost immediately by Prime Minister Mark Carney.
• The sovereigntist Parti Quebecois "has just formed the government of Quebec with 28% of the vote, " he remarked.
• Asked by the BBC how he felt in one sentence after the results, separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre simply remarked: "Not happy".

It was a decisive result in a referendum that could have strained the bonds of national unity.

But preliminary results show that more than two-thirds of Alberta voters sent a clear message that they want to remain in Canada.

It's feasible that once the final tally is counted, the rejection by a comfortable majority of voters to pursue separation through a binding referendum could halt Alberta's separatist sentiment in its tracks.

This would push the idea that had been discussed quietly for decades back into the political fringes.

While the result was projected given the polling, it was still disappointing after more than a year of campaigning and pushing for a vote on separation, for leaders of the Alberta separatist movement.

For context, the outcome was celebrated almost immediately by Prime Minister Mark Carney. This person remarked in an official note that "Albertans made a clear choice".

But the movement's leaders say their battle is long from over and that the matter could dominate Alberta politics for years to come.

Jeffrey Rath, a Calgary-lawyer and one of the main spokespeople for Alberta separation, remarked he and others "plan to roll up our sleeves and work harder".

Keith Wilson, another separatist, informed supporters in Calgary that while the vote is over, "the conversation about Alberta's future in Canada and our place in Canada and our role in Canada will continue".

Smith, who openly backed and campaigned for the unity vote, thanked voters for the result.

For context, the Alberta premier has been criticised for taking a "dangerous" gamble that the independence push would probable face defeat while still giving her restive base what they wanted.

She lowered the petition threshold needed to obtain the citizen-led campaign the ballot in the first place.

How oil-rich Alberta's economy might fare if it broke away from Canada. Carney pitches oil pipeline as a response to US-Canada trade war.

At Canada's biggest rodeo, the starting gun is fired in the fight over Alberta separation.

By making Monday's result non-binding, she obtained around a court decision blocking the pro-separation petition as it failed to consult indigenous First Nations whose land would be affected if the province separated.

That gamble could test her leadership of the United Conservative Party. It she has led since 2022. "She's lost the confidence of the (party) base, " remarked Rath.

Albertans who voted against an independence referendum informed the BBC throughout the campaign that they were motivated by a desire to keep the country united, especially as Canada grapples with tariff threats from the US, its longtime ally.

They additionally feared that an independent Alberta could be vulnerable to outside influence – or even annexation.

Thomas Lukaszuk, a prominent pro-unity campaigner, informed a crowd of supporters on Monday night that the early results produced him proud to be Albertan.

At a pro-unity results watch party in Edmonton, Lukaszuk appealled directly to separatists, saying that "some of the issues they have raised are legitimate", and that the province must do the hard work of healing the divisions laid bare by this debate.

"I don't want to see us doing another referendum like this ever again, " Lukaszuk remarked.

Premier Smith informed CBC earlier in the week that she would not hold an independence referendum if Albertans vote against it as long as she is premier. Some of the rifts can't easily be smoothed over.

For context, the separatist sentiment has its roots in "western alienation" which is a term that has been applied for decades by some in Canada's western provinces to describe a feeling of being ignored or overlooked by the federal administration in central Canada.

Alberta independence supporters – and plenty of on the unity side – believe that Ottawa has long undermined the province's oil and gas industry, most lately through environmental policies.

That anger afterwards deepened as some Albertans grew frustrated with the response by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to the Covid-19 pandemic and vaccine mandates, viewing them as yet another example of administration overreach.

Carney, who was raised in Alberta, has worked with Smith to address some of these problems, signing an agreement that would see a new pipeline from Alberta built to Canada's pacific coast.

He nodded to that in his statement on Monday night, saying that his plan is to unlock Canada's "full potential as a global energy superpower with Alberta at its core".

But there are signs that there could be tension going forward between Carney and Smith, an able politician and a survivor – so far – of Alberta's rough and tumble politics.

She additionally put nine other questions to Albertans on Monday, most that seek to provide the province more autonomy from Ottawa, including on matters like immigration. The (particularly) preliminary results suggest that numerous might pass.

Some who voted in favour of a second binding separation referendum have remarked they didn't want outright independence, but some leverage over Ottawa. Smith has remarked these other nine questions assist offer her just that.

Quebec, another province with similar sovereigntist sentiments, could offer clues on where Alberta's separation movement might end up.

Alberta independence supporters don't hide the fact that they gain inspiration from the majority French-speaking province.

They view Quebec as having successfully applied the threat of separation to gain significantly more autonomy over provincial affairs.

Rath created a note of that as he pondered his side's defeat.

In practice, the sovereigntist Parti Quebecois "has just formed the government of Quebec with 28% of the vote, " he remarked.

"It's not out of the realm of possibility", he continued, that Alberta separatists could do the same going forward.

Taken together, the developments around huge setback for Alberta' s separatist movement after decisive defeat point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.