Pakistan Risks Winter Gas Shortages

Pakistan is delaying a decision on importing an estimated $2 billion worth of liquefied natural gas (LNG), raising reservations concerning winter gas shortages and feasible supply cuts to industry, power plants and fertilizer manufacturers.

Key points

• While supplies to compressed natural gas stations could be curtailed, particularly in December 2026 and January 2027, industrial, power and fertilizer consumers would receive gas according to availability.
• Winter gas demand is projected to almost double from 850 million cubic feet per day to 1, 600 million cubic feet per day.
• The Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCOE) has yet to approve a proposal for 22 LNG cargoes, despite the Petroleum Division seeking authorization last month.
• At an average estimated cost of $87 million per cargo, importing 22 shipments from November through February would require almost $2 billion.
• Under the Petroleum Division's proposal, residential consumers would receive priority, with gas supplied from 5 a.m.

In practice, the Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCOE) has yet to approve a proposal for 22 LNG cargoes, despite the Petroleum Division seeking authorization last month.

In practice, the plan pressed the import process for the first 12 cargoes to commence between October 7 and 10, but those deadlines have passed without a formal decision. Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz remarked the matter remained pending with the committee. Chinese IPPs Demand Rs. 498 Billion in Unpaid Dues. LNG Delays Raise Winter Supply Reservations.

In practice, the administration had anticipated to receive at least 11 cargoes from Qatar under a long term agreement. Nevertheless, Qatar has extended its force majeure status until November against the backdrop of regional uncertainty, making the delivery of contracted supplies less certain. Authorities stated the administration had considered importing 15 cargoes instead of the proposed 22, but cautioned that a smaller volume could worsen shortages during peak winter demand.

At an average estimated cost of $87 million per cargo, importing 22 shipments from November through February would require almost $2 billion. The administration had initially estimated the cost at $1.5 billion, assuming supplies from Qatar at around $12 per million British thermal units. With contracted deliveries uncertain, Pakistan may have to rely more heavily on spot market purchases. It could growth the financial burden.

In practice, the proposed plan included four cargoes from Azerbaijan through Pakistan LNG Limited, four arranged by Pakistan State Oil in collaboration with other market participants, and three from a US administration nominated supplier. The remaining cargoes would support meet demand throughout the power and residential sectors. A number of proposed deadlines for arranging these shipments have already passed. Pakistan is Using Far More Imported Coal to Create Electricity. Homes May Obtain Priority Over Industry.

Winter gas demand is projected to almost double from 850 million cubic feet per day to 1, 600 million cubic feet per day. Demand on the Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited network is projected to rise from 550 million cubic feet per day to 1, 100 million cubic feet per day, placing further pressure on supplies in northern Pakistan.

Under the Petroleum Division's proposal, residential consumers would receive priority, with gas supplied from 5 a.m. To 10 p.m. And adequate pressure maintained during cooking hours.

While supplies to compressed natural gas stations could be curtailed, particularly in December 2026 and January 2027, industrial, power and fertilizer consumers would receive gas according to availability. In severe shortages, supplies to cement plants and other industries could additionally be reduced to protect household demand.

For context, the potential impact extends to fertilizer production. Administration office-holders noted at least two fertilizer plants connected to the SNGPL network could face gas supply suspensions. According to the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, the closure of Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim, Fatima Fertilizer and Agritech could create a urea shortfall of 109, 000 metric tonnes per month.

Notably, the Petroleum Division has additionally compared the foreign exchange implications of importing LNG with importing urea and providing subsidies. It estimates that importing LNG and supplying it to consumers would have greater financial implications for one month than importing urea. Meanwhile, Pakistan's official foreign exchange reserves stood at slightly more than $21 billion after the country borrowed $3 billion through Eurobonds ahead of a major debt repayment of the same amount.

For context, the final LNG import volume and procurement arrangements remain undecided, leaving the administration facing a choice between the cost of further imports and the risk of tighter gas supplies during the winter peak. Stay Connected with ProPakistani.

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In short, pakistan Risks Winter Gas Shortages is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.