Serbia votes in election pitting longtime leader against student movement

Serbians are voting in parliamentary elections against the backdrop of a mass student protest ⁠movement that seeks to oust longtime populist leader Aleksandar Vucic.

Key points

• Regarding 150, 000 supporters of the student movement rallied in central Belgrade on Thursday.
• Their roster of 250 largely unfamiliar candidates, including university professors, actors and farmers, is led by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic.
• But Vucic, who resigned as president in September to run again for prime minister, is a solid incumbent.
• While saying little regarding their international ambitions, the Student List movement's agenda focuses on rooting out corruption and improving schooling.
• The former president claims the students are funded by foreign agents in Croatia and Montenegro, a charge the students deny.

In practice, the snap elections, called by Vucic in September, follow almost two years of student-led demonstrations against perceived corruption ⁠and creeping authoritarianism, triggered by the deaths of 16 individuals when a train station canopy collapsed in the city of Novi Sad in 2024. The students have since gained widespread backing.

For context, a loss for Vucic ⁠would mark a profound political shift in the Balkan country of some 6 million individuals, reminiscent of the defeat of Hungary's Viktor Orban in April.

But Vucic, who resigned as president in September to run again for prime minister, is a solid incumbent. Plenty of voters thank him for pulling Serbia out of economic obscurity and ‌orchestrating a period of sustained modernisation.

"The Serbian election ⁠is shaping up to be a watershed moment for the country as the Student List mounts the biggest challenge against Vucic yet, " Mario Bikarski, senior Europe analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, informed the Reuters news agency.

During the campaign, Vucic has promised higher pensions and public sector salaries, investment in state healthcare, and subsidies for young couples. While leaving the door open to joining the European Union, he has balanced closer ties with China, a major investor, and Russia, Serbia's traditional ally and principal supplier of natural gas.

But relations with the EU have frayed under his leadership, with the bloc growing increasingly frustrated over a lack of reforms addressing the judiciary, the rule of law and corruption.

Their roster of 250 largely unfamiliar candidates, including university professors, actors and farmers, is led by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic. Opinion polls are predicting a tight race.

Though other polls have put the students ahead, an Ipsos poll published on Thursday gives Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party 47 percent ⁠of the vote to the students' 40 percent.

Rights groups and activists say repression has worsened since the deadly train station canopy collapse. It was widely blamed on administration corruption and sparked the student demonstrations.

Vucic and his party have repeatedly denied accusations of repression, corruption and spying on their opponents.

Notably, the former president claims the students are funded by foreign agents in Croatia and Montenegro, a charge the students deny.

Taken together, the developments around serbia votes in election pitting longtime leader against student movement point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.