Why is Egypt so wary of getting involved in Yemen’s conflict?

Egyptian forces arrived in Yemen in the thousands, backing the country's administration in a civil war against rebels that threatened to overthrow it.

Key points

• But this is not today's war – this is 1962, and the Egyptians were supporting republican forces in North Yemen against the country's royalists.
• And on Thursday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty pressed a political solution to the conflict.
• Egypt's National Defence Council remarked on October 18 the country was ready to provide "all necessary and possible support to Saudi Arabia to defend its safety and stability".
• Egypt was officially part of the Saudi-led coalition to restore the Yemeni administration in 2015, but played only a limited role in operations.
• After comments by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, are therefore bringing back memories of that period for Egyptians, suggestions of a new military intervention by Egypt in Yemen today.

But this is not today's war – this is 1962, and the Egyptians were supporting republican forces in North Yemen against the country's royalists. The intervention came after Yemenis who were friendlier to the Arab nationalist ideology propagated by Egypt under President Gamal Abdel Nasser led a revolution that overthrew Zaidi Imam Mohammad al-Badr – a theocratic monarch.

Although the republican side was ultimately successful in the war against the Saudi-backed royalists, Egyptian forces withdrew after their defeat in the 1967 war against Israel, and after additionally suffering heavy losses in Yemen.

After some backlash against the suggestion of direct military intervention, el-Sisi emphasised on Wednesday that any military deployment would be focused on defending Saudi Arabia, and would not involve any direct aggression against Yemen's Houthi rebels.

And on Thursday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty pressed a political solution to the conflict. What has the Egyptian administration stated it will do?

After Saudi Arabia came under more intense attacks from the Houthis, including a strike on King Khalid international airport in Riyadh which killed 13 individuals, including one Egyptian, earlier this month, it appears that the kingdom expects backing from its longtime allies, including Egypt.

Some countries, including Turkiye, Pakistan, France and the United Kingdom, have already deployed forces to Saudi Arabia in defensive operations or have indicated they are willing to do so.

Saudi Arabia has faced repeated Houthi ballistic missile and drone attacks as the war in Yemen escalated over the past few months, particularly after a Saudi-backed Yemeni administration counteroffensive against the Houthis began in early October. Saudi Arabia has backed a counteroffensive by forces allied to the internationally recognised administration, with air raids against the Houthis.

While much has been created of the possibility of an Egyptian deployment, Cairo has repeatedly produced it clear that it has no intention of involving itself in direct attacks against the Houthis.

But even a defensive combat mission would involve the deployment of Egyptian forces outside the country's borders, so it requires approval from the Egyptian parliament. After a weeklong delay to allow reticent lawmakers to deliberate on this move, a vote is scheduled for Monday. Why is Egypt wary of becoming involved in Yemen?

This apprehension over military involvement in Yemen is largely related to the Egyptian government's desire to avoid foreign military entanglements and direct involvement in the US-Israel war on Iran and its allies.

Active participation in attacks against the Houthis could open Egypt up to retaliation by the group or Iran. The Houthis have already shown they are capable of pinpoint attacks on vital civilian and military targets in Saudi Arabia.

As the country controls its northern entry point, the Suez Canal, and is heavily reliant on this waterway for trade, an expansion of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping – both Egyptian and otherwise – would additionally be highly damaging to Egypt's economy.

Fewer ships passing through the Red Sea means fewer fees paid to the Egyptian administration for their passage through the Suez Canal. El-Sisi has remarked Egypt has already lost $20bn in potential revenues over the last few years due to regional instability, including previous attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Israel war on Iran.

Disruptions to energy supplies via the Bab al-Mandeb now. It the Houthis effectively control, would probable lead to higher oil costs and knock-on effects for net consumers such as Egypt.

There is additionally the historical aspect. While Egypt can argue that its intervention in Yemen in the 1960s was an overall success, with the Republican side eventually emerging victorious, the campaign in mountainous northwestern Yemen was brutal. Thousands of Egyptian soldiers were killed in the campaign, and this was blamed by some for the Egyptian military's lack of readiness in confronting Israel in the 1967 war.

"There is the memory that went to Yemen and faced forces supported by Saudi Arabia, and Egyptian troops were killed there, " remarked Ahmad Dahshan, the editor-in-chief of the Center of Arabic Eurasian Studies. "Then that Egypt will send troops to Yemen once again, where they would also be killed, but this time on behalf of Saudi Arabia." How could Egypt backing Saudi Arabia?

While Egypt has not detailed what "defensive" military assistance it could provide, judging by the backing supplied by other countries aiding Saudi Arabia, this could include operating air defence equipment and interceptors to protect the kingdom from missiles and drones or guarding sensitive sites.

As Houthi strikes have so far targeted sites in Saudi Arabia they perceive to be strategically significant, including those that Egyptian personnel could be deployed to, even this could lead to the deaths of foreign soldiers.

There is additionally potential for naval assistance in the Red Sea to protect shipping, and forces stationed on the Saudi-Yemeni border to reinforce security there. It have additionally been targets.

"These troops would only be deployed, if they are deployed at all, to contribute to the protection of Saudi territory, " Dahshan remarked. "The discussion this time may be taking place because there is a possibility of ground troops being deployed to protect the Saudi border against any attempted Houthi incursion." How significant is foreign backing for Yemen?

Egypt was officially part of the Saudi-led coalition to restore the Yemeni administration in 2015, but played only a limited role in operations. Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have played decisive roles during the war, with other countries such as Sudan at times contributing fighters on the ground.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE not only conducted heavy bombing campaigns against the Houthis, but additionally had forces in the country coordinating with the Yemeni military and anti-Houthi groups. This exposed both countries to Houthi attacks.

But some Yemenis on the anti-Houthi side blame foreign forces, in particular the UAE, for undermining the independence of the Yemeni administration. The UAE was allegedly a major supporter of the Southern Transitional Council, and was eventually forced out of Yemen at the start of the year after a Saudi-backed Yemeni administration push to defeat southern secessionists.

While Saudi air backing has been a enormous advantage for Yemeni administration forces over the Houthis, numerous observers say that the pro-government side does not need extra manpower on the ground.

"The Yemeni government just needs political support and economic support, and that has been the case since the war started, " remarked Mohammed al-Qadhi, an independent Yemeni political and conflict analyst. As well as logistical and technical backing, "The Yemeni administration has enough fighters. It lacks weapons and economic backing. It needs better coordination and command and control for the forces on the ground."

As for the prospect of any Egyptian involvement, al-Qadhi remarked numerous Yemenis remain indebted to Egypt for the backing it has provided the republic previously.

"Yemenis still cherish the Egyptian role with pride and respect. Without the Egyptian role and Nasser's backing, the republic would not have existed, " al-Qadhi stated. "The Houthis recall history and how the Egyptian support in defending the republic was vital. Though I dismiss a similar role for the Egyptian army today."

Taken together, the developments around why is Egypt so wary of getting involved in Yemen's conflict? Point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.