Russia mobilisation fears grow amid reports of intimidating tactics

Owing to his illness, 26-year-old Sasha from Orenburg, a city in Russia close to the Kazakhstan border, has a Category V military ID.

Key points

• Since June, there have been reports of attempted press-ganging in Penza, 625km (388 miles) southeast of Moscow.
• The 2022 mobilisation decree remains in effect, and the Russian offensive in Ukraine is lagging.
• According to the Ministry of Defence, regarding 2, 000 residents apply for alternative civilian service each year, with approximately half receiving approval.
• Earlier this summer, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asserted the Kremlin was secretly preparing for a mass mobilisation – a claim backed by reports in Russian independent media.
• Just before partial mobilisation was declared in 2022, he considered leaving for Kazakhstan.

Just before partial mobilisation was declared in 2022, he considered leaving for Kazakhstan. But while awaiting the bus, he struck up a conversation with his soon-to-be girlfriend.

As they turned back together, they decided against making the drastic move. Over the past year, nevertheless, they have grown increasingly anxious.

"Since mid-2025, my girlfriend and I have been experiencing a severe decline in mental health. We see psychiatrists and take antidepressants, " Sasha informed Al Jazeera.

He requested to be identified only by his first name to protect his anonymity.

"I don't go outside unless it's urgent and try never to be alone. I carry pepper spray for protection against aggression if it happens, like in Penza."

While weeping women try to intervene – echoing similar scenes in Ukraine, recent footage shared on social media has shown individuals dressed in plainclothes trying to force fighting-age men into vehicles to take them to the recruitment centre.

Potential recruits have additionally been reportedly summoned to police stations under bureaucratic pretexts, then beaten or threatened – for example, by having illicit drugs planted on them – into signing a military contract.

Local authorities deny the reports, claiming only men attempting to dodge the draft. This person have already been mobilised, are being approached. They have additionally accused residents who have shared footage of the roundups of spreading disinformation.

Although the Penza roundups have received attention lately, local authorities throughout Russia have been accused of coercive methods for some time.

"In October 2022, a friend was stopped at night by military police, " remarked Sasha. "They identified themselves as civilians and didn't show identification. They demanded a passport or military ID, and that he accompany them. My friend ran away."

According to Mikhail Liberov, from the Conscientious Objectors Movement, military recruiters select the "right targets who, for one reason or another, are vulnerable to seduction, deception, blackmail, or are simply unaware of their actions".

He remarked this group includes drug addicts, alcoholics, mentally unwell residents, those with sizeable debts and migrants "who don't speak Russian or barely know what's actually written, and are also afraid of deportation".

Men above 35 years of age are additionally approached, and some are willing to risk their lives and the lives of others for sizeable funds and the chance to become 'heroes'.

"Then comes the threat of prison: A man arrested for petty hooliganism might be intimidated by the idea that, say, 'We'll plant drugs on you and put you in prison for 12 years, ' and many agree to sign contracts."

Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at the International Crisis Group, remarked the recent roundups in Penza are probable isolated instances of local authorities trying to fill their recruitment quotas, rather than a systemic, nationwide effort. 'Mobilisation will still happen'.

These renewed recruitment incidents come against the backdrop of rumours of a mobilisation effort and an anticipated Russian offensive this winter that will probable involve ramped-up attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

"I've already accepted that mobilisation will still happen, unless something happens that forces (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to end the war in Ukraine, " remarked Liberov, who believes Russia will ready troops within a year.

"Human rights activists are already working on the assumption that mobilisation will take place this fall, " he remarked.

In September 2022, Putin signed a decree allowing for partial mobilisation. Fearing deployment, thousands of men fled to neighbouring countries. But that mobilisation effort effectively concluded two months afterwards.

As well as promising generous payouts, russia has since been able to replenish its ranks by enlisting prisoners. Nevertheless, the recruitment pool is dwindling.

According to the independent Russian news site IStories, the number of individuals voluntarily signing military contracts halved by late 2025. Those who enlist are disproportionately from underprivileged corners of society.

"The protracted war with Ukraine, the large number of dead soldiers, and the degradation of the Russian economy demotivate people from participating in such an adventure in the name of Putin, " remarked Liberov. Official casualties are not created public in Russia.

For context, the Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies puts the number of deaths among Russian forces since the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 at almost 450, 000.

Meanwhile, the 2022 mobilisation decree remains in effect, and the Russian offensive in Ukraine is lagging. The war is now being felt at home as Ukrainian drones strike deep into Russian territory.

"I only live once. I'm not going to sacrifice it for someone else's wishes and will fight to the bitter end, " remarked Sasha. "Human life is priceless, and you have to cling to it until the end."

Vladimir from Ulan-Ude, who has previously served as a conscript and is thus eligible for mobilisation, remarked he has a "generally negative attitude" concerning Russia's war in Ukraine.

"I am preparing for a feasible draft. In the event of an escalation, I will insist on the alternative civil service, " remarked the 35-year-old. This person requested to withhold his surname over fears of reprisal. "I wouldn't want to leave the country."

According to the Russian constitution, alternative civilian service can be applied for when "convictions or religious beliefs contradict military service".

Conscripts can serve either for 21 months at an organisation "subordinate to the bodies of the executive branch", often taking jobs as nurses, cleaners or postal workers, or for 18 months at a defence manufacturing plant. According to the Ministry of Defence, regarding 2, 000 residents apply for alternative civilian service each year, with approximately half receiving approval.

In June, lawmaker Andrey Gurulev of the governing United Russia party wrote on Telegram that "there's now active talk, both behind the scenes and in high places, about the need for a new large-scale mobilisation."

But expanding the army is expensive while budgets are under strain, and a massive influx of recruits still leaves a shortage of experienced officers and trained specialists.

"I would say that Russia's problems right now are less about the quantity, but more about the quality of contractors, " remarked Crisis Group's Ignatov.

Russians need more skilled soldiers who can operate drones. This person can operate modern warfare systems. And here they have more challenges than the Ukrainians.

"But if this war continues, of course, we can assume that (mobilisation) could happen."

Taken together, the developments around russia mobilisation fears grow amid reports of intimidating tactics point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.