Hormuz sees more ships, less cargo

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz edged higher in the week concluded August 23, but cargo-bearing movements fell sharply, with cargo-carrying transits declining 27%, signalling that the headline recovery in shipping has yet to translate into a meaningful improvement in commercial.

Key points

• Confirmed Hormuz crossings rose 2.5% week-on-week to 121, even as the composition of traffic deteriorated.
• "Traffic edged higher through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb last week, but headline volumes obscure contrasting risk signals, " Kpler remarked.
• The decline in cargo-carrying transits is particularly significant as it contrasts with the rise in overall vessel crossings.
• The latest weekly numbers follow continued volatility in Hormuz traffic.

Confirmed Hormuz crossings rose 2.5% week-on-week to 121, even as the composition of traffic deteriorated. While vessels using Iran's unilateral routing scheme accounted for 46.3% of all crossings, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler, the number of sanctioned vessel crossings rose sharply to 16 from nine.

In practice, the decline in cargo-carrying transits is particularly significant as it contrasts with the rise in overall vessel crossings. Kpler remarked the latest data suggest that "commercial substance is weakening at Hormuz even as overall traffic holds up", highlighting the gap between vessel movements and actual cargo transportation.

Notably, the latest weekly numbers follow continued volatility in Hormuz traffic. In the preceding week, confirmed crossings had fallen 19.5% to 95, with traffic dropping to just three vessels on August 16. While movements remained concentrated on Iran's unilateral scheme and undetermined routes, at the time, no crossings were recorded through the standard Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme or Omani routes.

Taken together, the developments around hormuz sees more ships, less cargo point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.