As monsoon falters, keep food imports open

Opinion As monsoon falters, keep food imports open The Fadnavis administration has done well to activate the Drought Management Code, triggering the undertaking of crop loss assessment and concessions such as waiver of land revenue and restructuring or pausing recovery of agricultural.

Key points

• 3 min readSep 28, 2026 06: 00 AM IST First published on: Sep 28, 2026 at 06: 00 AM IST.
• Maharashtra has declared drought in almost three-fourths of its tehsils, with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis stating that the situation could be worse than the great famine of 1972.
• Global climate models point to its becoming "very strong" in October through January-February, before gradually receding into a moderate-to-weak event towards April-May.
• Imports should be created duty-free for all other pulses, too: Yellow peas, chana and masoor.
• There is equal need for supply-side management in anticipation of shortfalls.

Maharashtra has declared drought in almost three-fourths of its tehsils, with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis stating that the situation could be worse than the great famine of 1972. But it isn't just Maharashtra. India overall has documented rainfall at 11.9 per cent below the historical average during the current southwest monsoon season from June 1 to September 27. Additionally, 23 of the country's 36 meteorological subdivisions have recorded cumulative deficits in excess of 10 per cent. Notably, the southern states, Maharashtra's Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Kutch and the Northeast are the worst-hit. On the whole, rainfall was markedly deficient in June and August, and has been concentrated in a few regions: Odisha, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. That makes for a rather skewed temporal and spatial distribution.

El Niño has entered a solid phase. Global climate models point to its becoming "very strong" in October through January-February, before gradually receding into a moderate-to-weak event towards April-May. El Niño's impact on the monsoon has been felt since August. There will be some effect of that on the kharif yields, even if their acreage hasn't fallen much. Notably, the real brunt will be borne by the crops grown during the upcoming rabi (winter-spring) season. Deficit monsoon rains may leave little water in wells, ponds, reservoirs or underground aquifers. That, plus the prospect of a relatively warm and short winter (El Niño is known to suppress rainfall as well as raise temperatures), could translate into a poor rabi harvest on top of a not-so-great kharif.

For context, the Fadnavis administration has done well to activate the Drought Management Code, triggering the undertaking of crop loss assessment and concessions such as waiver of land revenue and restructuring or pausing recovery of agricultural loans by farmers in the affected areas. Other states must follow suit. The efficacy of the Centre's flagship Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana and VB-G Ram G schemes – in terms of expeditious indemnity claim payouts to farmers and the taking up of rural relief works – may additionally well be tested. There is equal need for supply-side management in anticipation of shortfalls. Notably, the Narendra Modi administration, last week, cut import duties on crude palm and soyabean oil from 16.5 to 11 per cent and on sunflower oil to 5.5 per cent. It has already allowed imports of arhar and urad at nil duty. Imports should be created duty-free for all other pulses, too: Yellow peas, chana and masoor.

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For now, as monsoon falters, keep food imports open remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.