China’s economy grows 4.5 percent in Q3, beating forecasts

Published On 19 Oct 202619 Oct 2026.

Key points

• China's ruling Communist Party has set a GDP expansion target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026.
• Retail sales, a key measure of domestic consumption, rose 1.1 percent year-on-year in September and 2.6 percent during the first nine months of 2026.
• It covers spending on real estate, factories and machinery, edged up 0.7 percent last month but contracted 7.2 percent during the January-September period.
• "I expect Beijing is getting 4.5 percent as wanted, " He informed Al Jazeera.
• During the first nine months of the year, GDP grew 4.6 percent year-on-year, according to the preliminary figures.

China's economy has grown faster than projected in the most recent quarter against the backdrop of booming exports underpinned by artificial intelligence, according to official figures.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 4.5 percent in the July-September period from the same quarter a year earlier, picking up from 4.3 percent expansion in the second quarter and beating most analysts' forecasts, figures issued on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics indicated.

While China's technology-related exports have surged during the AI boom, expansion in the world's second-largest economy has been dampened by fragile domestic demand and a sagging property market.

China's ruling Communist Party has set a GDP expansion target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2026. It would be among the slowest expansions in decades, excluding during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chinese exports surged more than 16 percent in the first three quarters of the year to reach 23.19 billion yuan ($3.47bn), according to the official data, largely due to solid demand for semiconductors and other tech-related goods.

Industrial production, which measures output in sectors such as manufacturing and mining, rose 5.5 percent in September, taking expansion in the first three quarters to 5.3 percent.

Investment in fixed assets. It covers spending on real estate, factories and machinery, edged up 0.7 percent last month but contracted 7.2 percent during the January-September period.

Zhiguo He, a finance professor at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business who studies the Chinese economy, remarked that while China's economy is on track to hit official targets, Beijing will be wary of the continuing reliance on export-driven expansion.

"A managed slow slowdown is the best Beijing can hope for, " he remarked.

"Real estate is still shrinking. This is what Beijing wanted and a good thing, and China's households have been adapting their expectations based on this."

Taken together, the developments around china's economy grows 4.5 percent in Q3, beating forecasts point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.