Abdul El-Sayed Edges Out Mike Rogers in Michigan: Most Accurate Pollster

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow lead over Republican nominee Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S.

Key points

• TIPP has been recognized as one of the nation's most accurate pollsters, having correctly predicted presidential elections in 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016.
• An August Fox News poll of 1, 006 registered Michigan voters indicated a much closer race with Benson with a 5-point lead, 52 percent to James 47 percent.
• Trump won the state in 2024 with 49.7 percent to Vice President Kamala Harris' 48.3 percent.
• A recent Fox News poll of 1, 006 registered Michigan voters discovered Rogers ahead at 51 percent to El-Sayed's 47 percent, with 2 percent undecided.
• The TIPP survey additionally identified Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson leading Republican nominee John James, with 53 percent backing to James' 37 percent.

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow lead over Republican nominee Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll from TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP), a polling firm that has ranked among the nation's most accurate in recent election cycles. Democrats face a tough map in 2026, needing to gain four seats while defending their own incumbents. The party has pointed to voter reservations over the economy, the ongoing Iran war, and President Donald Trump's slipping approval rating as potential opportunities to produce inroads and flip the Senate. Republicans at present have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The poll, which demonstrates El-Sayed leading, comes against the backdrop of debate within Democratic circles over El-Sayed's general-election prospects after the progressive candidate defeated U.S. Representative Haley Stevens. This person was backed by much of the party establishment, in this month's primary. While his victory energized progressives, some Democratic strategists and members have questioned whether he can defeat Rogers in a race that could support determine control of the Senate. With fewer than 100 days until Election Day, the candidates are ramping up their efforts to mobilize voters in the Great Lakes State. Newsweek has reached out to El-Sayed and Rogers' campaigns for comment via email on Wednesday and is awaiting a response. What the Poll Notes A TIPP survey of 1, 528 registered voters in Michigan, conducted for the League of American Workers, identified El-Sayed ahead of Rogers with 45 percent of the vote, compared to the Republican's 42 percent. Regarding 7 percent stated they would vote for someone else, and 6 percent noted they were undecided. Notably, the poll additionally asked voters if they were satisfied with El-Sayed as the Democratic nominee, with 61 percent satisfied, 29 percent not satisfied, and 10 percent not sure. While 44 percent held an unfavorable opinion, and 17 percent remarked they had no opinion or were unsure, on favorability, 39 percent of voters viewed El-Sayed favorably. Rogers posted similar ratings, with 37 percent of voters viewing him favorably, 42 percent unfavorably and 21 percent saying they had no opinion or were unsure. While 43 percent backed El-Sayed, among the subset of 588 respondents who documented voting in the Democratic primary, 45 percent stated they backed Stevens. Notably, the poll was conducted from August 6 to 10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. TIPP has been recognized as one of the nation's most accurate pollsters, having correctly predicted presidential elections in 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin at present gives TIPP an A rating, placing it among the top-rated pollsters in the country, behind only The Washington Post and Research & Polling Inc. It both have A+ ratings. Michigan Senate Race The race has drawn national attention as El-Sayed and Rogers go head-to-head to fill the open Senate seat after Democrat Gary Peters' decision to retire. Democrats have held the seat for decades, but Michigan has long defied straightforward political labels, often producing razor-thin elections and unexpected outcomes. In 2016, Democratic primary voters backed independent Vermont Senator Sanders over Hillary Clinton before narrowly helping deliver the state to Trump months afterwards. Since then, Michigan has alternated between Democratic and Republican presidential backing, cementing its battleground status. Plenty of of the races have been close. Trump won the state in 2024 with 49.7 percent to Vice President Kamala Harris' 48.3 percent. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state over Trump, 50.6 percent to 47.8 percent. Trump narrowly secured the state in his first campaign in 2016, beating Clinton by 0.23 percent, or approximately 10, 700 votes. Trump has endorsed Rogers. In practice, the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race as a "toss-up." What Other Polls Show The race has remained highly competitive in public polling, with most surveys showing Rogers and El-Sayed running within a few percentage points of each other and often any lead within the margin of error. A recent Fox News poll of 1, 006 registered Michigan voters discovered Rogers ahead at 51 percent to El-Sayed's 47 percent, with 2 percent undecided. The poll, which was conducted August 6 to 10, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Ahead of the primary elections, a July survey from Michigan pollster EPIC-MRA indicated Rogers up 3 percent over El-Sayed with 46 percent compared to 43 percent. For context, the poll of 600 respondents was conducted between July 24 and 31 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. A Mitchell Research & Communications poll additionally taken before the primary demonstrated a tie, with both candidates landing at 45 percent. The poll surveyed 672 probable voters on July 28 and July 29 and had an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.77 percent. Prediction markets at present provide El-Sayed an edge in the race. While Polymarket put El-Sayed's odds at 60 percent and Rogers' at 40 percent, as of Wednesday, Kalshi offered the Democrat a 57 percent chance of winning the open Senate seat, compared with 43 percent for Rogers. Michigan Governor's Race The TIPP survey additionally identified Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson leading Republican nominee John James, with 53 percent backing to James' 37 percent. The governor's race is another high-profile contest on Michigan's ballot this year, with Benson and James vying to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The outcome will serve as an early test of whether Democrats can maintain their statewide strength in a battleground state that has repeatedly delivered close election results. Benson has been Michigan's secretary of state since 2019. James is a Republican congressman and former U.S. Senate candidate who has been endorsed by Trump. An August Fox News poll of 1, 006 registered Michigan voters indicated a much closer race with Benson with a 5-point lead, 52 percent to James 47 percent. Notably, the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. With fewer than three months remaining until Election Day, Michigan is poised to remain a major political battleground as candidates in the state's Senate and gubernatorial races intensify efforts to turn out voters and secure backing in the state. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and James Debens.

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Democrats face a tough map in 2026, needing to gain four seats while defending their own incumbents. The party has pointed to voter reservations over the economy, the ongoing Iran war, and President Donald Trump's slipping approval rating as potential opportunities to produce inroads and flip the Senate. Republicans at present have a 53-47 majority in the Senate.

For context, the poll, which demonstrates El-Sayed leading, comes against the backdrop of debate within Democratic circles over El-Sayed's general-election prospects after the progressive candidate defeated U.S. Representative Haley Stevens. This person was backed by much of the party establishment, in this month's primary. While his victory energized progressives, some Democratic strategists and members have questioned whether he can defeat Rogers in a race that could support determine control of the Senate.

With fewer than 100 days until Election Day, the candidates are ramping up their efforts to mobilize voters in the Great Lakes State.

Newsweek has reached out to El-Sayed and Rogers' campaigns for comment via email on Wednesday and is awaiting a response.

For context, a TIPP survey of 1, 528 registered voters in Michigan, conducted for the League of American Workers, discovered El-Sayed ahead of Rogers with 45 percent of the vote, compared to the Republican's 42 percent. Regarding 7 percent stated they would vote for someone else, and 6 percent noted they were undecided.

Notably, the poll additionally asked voters if they were satisfied with El-Sayed as the Democratic nominee, with 61 percent satisfied, 29 percent not satisfied, and 10 percent not sure.

While 44 percent held an unfavorable opinion, and 17 percent remarked they had no opinion or were unsure, on favorability, 39 percent of voters viewed El-Sayed favorably. Rogers posted similar ratings, with 37 percent of voters viewing him favorably, 42 percent unfavorably and 21 percent saying they had no opinion or were unsure.

While 43 percent backed El-Sayed, among the subset of 588 respondents who documented voting in the Democratic primary, 45 percent stated they backed Stevens.

Notably, the poll was conducted from August 6 to 10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

TIPP has been recognized as one of the nation's most accurate pollsters, having correctly predicted presidential elections in 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin at present gives TIPP an A rating, placing it among the top-rated pollsters in the country, behind only The Washington Post and Research & Polling Inc. It both have A+ ratings.

In practice, the race has drawn national attention as El-Sayed and Rogers go head-to-head to fill the open Senate seat after Democrat Gary Peters' decision to retire. Democrats have held the seat for decades, but Michigan has long defied straightforward political labels, often producing razor-thin elections and unexpected outcomes.

In 2016, Democratic primary voters backed independent Vermont Senator Sanders over Hillary Clinton before narrowly helping deliver the state to Trump months afterwards. Since then, Michigan has alternated between Democratic and Republican presidential backing, cementing its battleground status.

Plenty of of the races have been close. Trump won the state in 2024 with 49.7 percent to Vice President Kamala Harris' 48.3 percent. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state over Trump, 50.6 percent to 47.8 percent. Trump narrowly secured the state in his first campaign in 2016, beating Clinton by 0.23 percent, or approximately 10, 700 votes. Trump has endorsed Rogers.

In practice, the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race as a "toss-up."

In practice, the race has remained highly competitive in public polling, with most surveys showing Rogers and El-Sayed running within a few percentage points of each other and often any lead within the margin of error.

In practice, a recent Fox News poll of 1, 006 registered Michigan voters discovered Rogers ahead at 51 percent to El-Sayed's 47 percent, with 2 percent undecided. The poll, which was conducted August 6 to 10, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Ahead of the primary elections, a July survey from Michigan pollster EPIC-MRA indicated Rogers up 3 percent over El-Sayed with 46 percent compared to 43 percent. The poll of 600 respondents was conducted between July 24 and 31 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Meanwhile, a Mitchell Research & Communications poll additionally taken before the primary demonstrated a tie, with both candidates landing at 45 percent. The poll surveyed 672 probable voters on July 28 and July 29 and had an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.77 percent.

Prediction markets at present provide El-Sayed an edge in the race. While Polymarket put El-Sayed's odds at 60 percent and Rogers' at 40 percent, as of Wednesday, Kalshi offered the Democrat a 57 percent chance of winning the open Senate seat, compared with 43 percent for Rogers.

Notably, the TIPP survey additionally identified Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson leading Republican nominee John James, with 53 percent backing to James' 37 percent.

In practice, the governor's race is another high-profile contest on Michigan's ballot this year, with Benson and James vying to succeed term-limited Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

Notably, the outcome will serve as an early test of whether Democrats can maintain their statewide strength in a battleground state that has repeatedly delivered close election results.

Benson has been Michigan's secretary of state since 2019. James is a Republican congressman and former U.S. Senate candidate who has been endorsed by Trump.

For context, an August Fox News poll of 1, 006 registered Michigan voters indicated a much closer race with Benson with a 5-point lead, 52 percent to James 47 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

With fewer than three months remaining until Election Day, Michigan is poised to remain a major political battleground as candidates in the state's Senate and gubernatorial races intensify efforts to turn out voters and secure backing in the state. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and James Debens.

For now, abdul El-Sayed Edges Out Mike Rogers in Michigan: Most Accurate Pollster remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.