Americans head to the polls for elections that could define Trump's closing chapter

3 November 2026, 05: 00 GMT. Updated 30 minutes ago.

Key points

• We like to stay out of people's business, Tim McKinnon, a Republican in Iowa who voted for Trump in 2024 informed me last month.
• Trump returned to the White House as a formidable force after his crushing 2024 election win – and had the healthy approval ratings to match.
• And the midterm elections on Tuesday that will decide control of Congress come at a tough moment for his Republican Party.
• There is concern among Republicans that this economic picture has left them vulnerable in typically safe races, in states such as Texas, Ohio and Kansas.
• He created his closing pitch on Monday in front the Reflecting Pool in Washington DC.

With two years of his presidency remaining, Donald Trump. This person has dominated American politics over the past decade and transformed it in remarkable ways, is facing potentially pivotal elections.

Voters overwhelmingly say they are most concerned regarding the cost of living. Food and fuel rates have soared in part due to the president's aggressive tariffs and unpopular war with Iran, so it will be top of mind as numerous head to the polls.

Trump, who has faced record low approval ratings in recent months, has been campaigning hard, headlining dozens of rallies nationwide.

He created his closing pitch on Monday in front the Reflecting Pool in Washington DC. It has been the subject of a controversial renovation. Looking back at the midterms campaign, he remarked Republicans "gave this a very strong shot".

But ahead of the vote, high rates are a concern for voters on all sides – which helps explain why he has been campaigning in previously safe Republican territory, appearing in Iowa and Kansas during a final weekend blitz.

His party has additionally poured hundreds of millions of dollars of campaign advertising into these traditionally safe contests, such as the Senate race in Kansas.

"When they start spending hard American dollars on political advertising in a state that they should be winning, that's how you know that they think they're in trouble, " Carrie Dann, the managing editor of the Cook Political Report. It analyses campaigns and elections, informed the BBC.

"The spending is going to be far more than Republicans ever anticipated, " she continued. That points to a party that is approaching these elections on the defensive.

At plenty of of his rallies, Trump has additionally created a plea to voters. "In this election, I'm asking you to pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot, " he remarked last month. "Just pretend."

Of course, he is not on the ballot. But this plea – which he created again in Iowa on Sunday – gets to the heart of a critical question: Is he still an electoral asset for his Republican Party?

Meanwhile, the answer to that is not as simple as it once was.

Trump returned to the White House as a formidable force after his crushing 2024 election win – and had the healthy approval ratings to match. Before that, during the previous midterm elections in 2022, his endorsement was courted by Republicans who saw it as vital to success.

Now, with the war with Iran dragging on and hitting plenty of Americans in the pocket, his approval ratings have sunk. The cost of a gallon of diesel – which was $3.75 before the war kicked off in February – hit a record high of $6.52 in September.

"I literally just had my son drive across the country, and he called me in every state and told me the price of gas, " one voter in Iowa informed me. "And I was like – 'oh my gosh, this is horrible'."

Inflation has additionally ticked up from 3% when Trump took office to 3.7% today, and economists estimate it would have been lower without his sweeping regime of global tariffs.

"The southern states, the midwestern states, the American heartland – that is where Republicans tend to thrive, " remarked Stephen Hawkins, the global director of research at the pollster More in Common.

"But that is where the Senate races that are so interesting are playing out right now."

"Places where President Trump won by 10, 12, 15 points just two years ago in the presidential race are now states where Democrats have a very viable chance of taking a Senate seat, " he remarked.

When I asked voters in Iowa, a state Trump won in 2024 that has been hit by soaring fuel and fertiliser costs, whether the president would create residents more or less probable to back Republicans – the answer was revealing.

"With the current climate, I would think possibly less, believe it or not, " Paul Ross informed me outside a busy college football game. "As a Republican myself, I would think it might be detrimental."

"I think it definitely puts voters off, there's no doubt about that, and I do think it probably raises the Democratic side to a level that isn't always there, just because it's Donald Trump, " continued Zach Shimp.

"He's got us in the war, " another voter, Rose Heming, remarked. "Prices and groceries high – sky high – gas is sky high."

That is the story of this election. Plenty of voters, including in solidly Republican states, are hurting financially and polls suggest they may want to produce this known at the ballot box on Tuesday.

But it is too simplistic to think this backdrop of war, tariffs and soaring rates will usher in a thumping Democratic victory in the House, Senate and governors' races.

Plenty of Republican voters are angry with the president, but not so angry that they would vote for a Democrat. It is a mistake to assume that Trump's subdued approval ratings translate to increasing popularity for the other side.

In fact, final polls taken before the elections suggest Trump's approval rating is around 38%. That is low – but the same polls, including a national NBC poll published on Sunday, external, indicate that only 29% of voters view the Democratic Party positively.

Voter frustration is no guarantee of a willingness to switch sides on Tuesday.

We like to stay out of people's business, Tim McKinnon, a Republican in Iowa who voted for Trump in 2024 informed me last month. And so world stage interventions time after time after time – we don't love it.

"We didn't expect him to necessarily be a perfect choir boy obviously, " his wife, Michelle, continued. "We voted for the underbelly of what he was standing for."

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party cannot rely on voters like the McKinnons. This person are frustrated with elements of Trump's recent agenda, to back them. They do not think Democrats will ever reflect their Christian, conservative values.

"One dollar more on gas is not going to change what we believe in, " Tim McKinnon informed me.

If Democrats do win a sizeable swathe of seats on Tuesday night, it won't necessarily be as voters love them – they just hate them a little less.

In practice, the party, nevertheless, is already looking ahead to a 2028 presidential election in which they will have to unite behind a single candidate. That is easier remarked than done given their clear fractures – some of which spilled out publicly during this election cycle, including in Michigan over the weekend.

Democrats will be closely watching these results for lessons ahead of 2028. Can they really win in Texas? Can they tempt rural voters in deep Republican strongholds? And will some of their rising stars, such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia and James Talarico in Texas, live up to the hype?

If the answer to some of these questions is no, there will be much to ponder for the party over the next year. And the post-mortem may not be pretty.

"This represents an opportunity, really, for Democrats to expand a lot of their influence, not just in terms of numbers, but in terms of perception of where they can compete, " Hawkins, from the pollster More in Common, remarked.

Republican attempts, including from Trump himself, to paint the Democrats as dangerous communists have not landed with all voters.

In short, americans head to the polls for elections that could define Trump' s closing is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.