Arch Manning’s Texas experiment is failing. Is a breakup next? | Opinion

Arch Manning's Texas experiment is failing. Is a breakup next?

Key points

• Toppmeyer: Arch Manning is a Texas difficulty, and Steve Sarkisian is last to see it.
• If the Longhorns don't reach the College Football Playoff, Manning will have to create a decision.
• Opinion One NFL scout notes Arch Manning is a 'third or fourth round' pick now.
• Since it only takes one of 32 teams to like him, that doesn't mean Manning wouldn't still leave for the NFL.
• Texas coach Steve Sarkisian can't afford to continue to invest time and coaching capital into Manning without significant return.

Arch Manning's Texas experiment is failing. Is a breakup next? Opinion One NFL scout notes Arch Manning is a 'third or fourth round' pick now. That leaves college football transfer portal as potential next destination. Matt Hayes USA TODAY. Arch Manning could cost Steve Sarkisian his job at Texas.

For context, the College Football Unfiltered crew offer their thoughts on whether or not Arch Manning has what it takes to stay at Texas and is Steve Sarkisian will remain his head coach.

It's time to come to grips with hard truths regarding Arch Manning, one particular reality more disturbing than all others.

Is the Texas and Manning marriage over after this season – and where does Manning go if it is?

If you don't think we're trending that way, consider this: Manning wasn't the best quarterback on the field last week when Texas was upset by Florida. A redshirt freshman making his first career start was.

But no matter how we analyze and scrutinize the recruiting and development of Manning, how we take the straightforward road and proclaim he's a product of one of the greatest names in college football history (he's not), his future in the game is far from set.

Don't automatically think the straightforward out is leaving for the NFL Draft. He's eligible, but the 19 games as a starter over the past two seasons haven't exactly elevated his draft stock.

"Someone might take him in the third or fourth round right now. But a 1? No chance, " an NFL scout informed USA TODAY Sports. "There's any number of problems. Decision-making and arm strength at the top of the list."

Since it only takes one of 32 teams to like him, that doesn't mean Manning wouldn't still leave for the NFL. But it does look like unless he turns things around rapidly, this could be his last season at Texas.

That could mean Manning in the transfer portal at the end of the season, searching for a fresh start and a new environment. Don't think it can't or won't happen. It may be the best for all involved.

BIG BLUE CHANGE: Michigan wasted millions on Bryce Underwood. Its best QB cost almost nothing.

HOOSIER HYPE: Indiana blew it against Ohio State. That's exactly why I'm buying Curt Cignetti.

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian can't afford to continue to invest time and coaching capital into Manning without significant return. Can't watch him throw away a monster rivalry game one week, and then be outplayed by Florida backup quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. – who did it without injured No. 1 receiver Vernell Brown III.

Can't watch Jones – and this is the hardest part to choke down – create better decisions with the ball and not think it's time to try someone else when Ole Miss rolls into town Saturday.

Sarkisian notes Manning is his starter, and that backup KJ Lacey will still secure his typical first-team repetitions in practice. Nothing is different, he insists. How could it not be?

Two weeks ago, Sarkisian was defending Manning, saying if his name were Joe Smith, he would be praised for beating four Top-10 teams in his past 13 starts – rather than criticizing him.

While sitting in a post-game news conference, Sarkisian remarked everything would be evaluated, minutes after the Florida loss. When asked if that meant the quarterback, he replied, " Everything."

On Monday, Sarkisian remarked: "We need to see a better version of him in practice and in the game. Ultimately, the player is in there. It's our job to obtain it out."

Sarkisian hasn't forgotten how to coach, and isn't asking Manning to do more than he can handle. He isn't calling poor plays, or putting the offense in tough down-and-distance situations.

Meanwhile, the offensive line has struggled at times this season, and protection is an matter. But the straightforward throws are there for Manning, the profit throws that move an offense and set up bigger throws.

Manning is either missing them or choosing more tough throws, negatively impacting both the offense and the game. The question is why?

Is he a product of the Manning name, and just not at the same level? Or is he not a fit with Sarkisian?

Either way, this marriage won't last if Texas keeps losing. There are too plenty of options in the transfer portal, and Texas has too much capital to not create a move and find a better quarterback.

If the Longhorns don't reach the College Football Playoff, Manning will have to create a decision. Stay and compete for a starting job in 2027, or enter the transfer portal and obtain a fresh start somewhere else. It may be best for all involved.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB. Listen to him daily, from 12-2 p.m., on 1010XL-Jacksonville. SMS Facebook Twitter Email. Share your feedback to support improve our site! Share your feedback to support improve our site!

In short, arch Manning's Texas experiment is failing. Is a breakup next? Is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.