Can Iran enforce a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz?

After Tehran and Washington traded attacks on ships in the crucial waterway in what experts called a "dangerous escalation", iran notes it aims to establish a new restricted zone around the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint.

Key points

• Before the US and Israel introduced the war on Iran on February 28, more than 130 ships passed daily through the strait.
• Stephen Zunes, founding chair of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of San Francisco, notes Iran will struggle to enforce a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei remarked the zone would be unveiled over the next few days.
• The two sides have been engaged in on-and-off attacks since a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MoU), signed on June 17, expired last month.
• US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins called the Iranian account "a total lie".

For context, the two sides have been engaged in on-and-off attacks since a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MoU), signed on June 17, expired last month.

Meanwhile, the latest escalation began after Iran targeted US warships patrolling and escorting oil tankers trying to evade the Tehran-imposed blockade of the strait. Meanwhile, a US naval blockade of the Iranian ports has drastically restricted its oil and other trade.

Notably, the MoU, which had concluded the months-long military hostility, collapsed after 60 days due to disputes over who had ultimate control over the Strait of Hormuz. It iran has employed as leverage in the war against the United States.

Oil tankers have become the latest targets in the US-Israel war on Iran, with Tehran repeatedly warning vessels against using unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz against the backdrop of reports that a growing number of oil tankers are passing through the waterway. Prior to the start of the war, 20 percent of the world's oil and gas supplies flowed through the strait.

So, where exactly will Iran's proposed zone be, what restrictions will apply, and how does Tehran intend to enforce this? What did Iran say regarding the restrictive zone?

"This zone will start from the US Navy's blockade line and include areas of the Persian Gulf, " he remarked, according to Iranian state media. "Any ship entering this new zone will be placed on the sanctions list."

Rezaei remarked the zone would "begin from the line of the US naval blockade, extend toward the Strait of Hormuz, and from this side continue into the Persian Gulf".

Nevertheless, Tehran has provided few details concerning the zone's precise boundaries or what being placed on its sanctions list would mean for vessels entering it.

Rezaei remarked new maps detailing routes, worked on in conjunction with Oman for the Hormuz Strait, would additionally be approved shortly.

"The maps of a new international corridor which lies in Iranian and Omani waters and in which Iran will have management have been agreed and should be signed in the coming days, " he continued.

"We will only commit to the Strait of Hormuz being open when they stop the sabotage, threats and attacks on Iran."

For context, the announcement comes after Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi remarked late last month that Iran and Oman had agreed on a temporary maritime route for ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz, whose entry "would be through our territorial waters, and part of the exit route would also be through our territorial waters". How have the US and the world reacted?

There has been no immediate US or wider international response specifically to Rezaei's announcement of the new zone.

Nevertheless, on Sunday, Washington rejected an Iranian claim noted in local media that a US vessel had attempted to enter an area Tehran considers restricted and was attacked.

Notably, the alleged attack comes days after Washington targeted three Iranian oil tankers and Tehran hit tankers and fired a ballistic missile towards US warships patrolling near the Strait of Hormuz. Doesn't Iran already prescribe a route for ships through Hormuz?

Yes. Iran is already demanding that vessels employ routes it approves through the strait.

Iran first published a map of its approved navigation routes in April, directing vessels much closer to the Iranian coastline than they travelled before the war. The route at present authorised by it follows a corridor along Iran's coast.

But Iran's attempt to control navigation has been challenged by a separate route closer to Oman.

In June, Oman, working with the International Maritime Organization (IMO), a United Nations agency that oversees shipping at sea, laid out a southern corridor intended to restore safe navigation through the strait.

Notably, a Liberian-flagged tanker, the Stoic Warrior, subsequently applied a route that took it close to the coasts of the United Arab Emirates and Oman before passing around the Musandam Peninsula, an Omani exclave.

For context, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) objected to it, declaring that "the only authorised route" was the one confirmed by Iran and warning that vessels crossing without its permission would be "unacceptable and extremely dangerous".

After the 14-point MoU signed in June in the Swiss city of Geneva, traffic in the strait had picked up. But the resumption of attacks has severely limited commercial shipping in and around the key waterway.

While Iran pledged to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz and allow ships to pass "with no charge" for 60 days, under the MoU, the US agreed to end its naval blockade within 30 days.

What is the current status of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz? Traffic is still getting through, but at substantially reduced levels.

Before the conflict, regarding 20 million barrels of crude oil per day flowed through the waterway. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, speaking to media on Sunday, remarked current transits were averaging more than nine million barrels of oil per day.

When pipelines bypassing the strait are included, Wright remarked flows were probably at "two-thirds or more of pre-conflict flows".

"So Iranians are still causing trouble, but the United States Navy is winning that battle, " he remarked.

Bolstering US claims was the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre. It on Sunday remarked 59 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the previous 48 hours.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted that the waterway is under Washington's control despite near-daily Iranian attacks on ships, going so far as to suggest renaming the Strait of Hormuz after himself.

Iran has disputed claims of growing traffic, claiming its chokehold on the waterway continues.

Nevertheless, recent data from other maritime tracking businesses and websites paints a mixed picture. Figures show only six vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and five last Monday, with a 10-day average of just 13 vessels per day.

On Monday, marine analytics firm Kpler indicated that an average of 10 commodity ships transited the strait per ⁠⁠day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May.

Before the US and Israel introduced the war on Iran on February 28, more than 130 ships passed daily through the strait. It allowed free navigation. Now, the Trump administration is negotiating with Iran to open the strait.

Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear programme. It trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu invoked to launch the war, has vanished from the headlines. Can Iran militarily enforce a new zone?

Tehran has so far demonstrated an ability to create passage through Hormuz dangerous, forcing ships to avoid the waterway. At least 19 seafarers have been killed and dozens of ships attacked since March.

Whether it can militarily enforce the much broader zone Rezaei has proposed – particularly against vessels protected by the US military – remains to be seen.

In short, can Iran enforce a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz? Is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.