Can the Green Party’s Polanski take on Labour and win Starmer’s old seat?

Published On 4 Sep 20264 Sep 2026.

Key points

• Starmer won 48.9 per cent of the vote in 2024; the Greens finished third on 10.4 per cent, behind a pro-Palestinian independent, Andrew Feinstein.
• After Starmer's appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington – despite his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, to plenty of Britons, it felt refreshing.
• Despite the Green Party's recent results in Camden, experts say that Holborn and St Pancras is a solid Labour seat.
• From 2010 to 2024, they had just one MP.
• "A Green win would be a surprise, " Jonathan Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, informed Al Jazeera.

When Britain's former Prime Minister Keir Starmer stood down as the member of parliament for Holborn and St Pancras this week, he concluded more than a decade representing a seat that has never elected anyone but a Labour MP since it was established in 1983.

Notably, the by-election it triggered which is projected afterwards this year would ordinarily be a formality, but instead, it has become the most closely watched contest of the parliamentary term.

That is since Zack Polanski, the Green Party leader, the self-styled "eco-populist". This person has taken his party from the margins to double-digit polling in a year, unveiled on Thursday that he will seek nomination for the seat. He now needs to be chosen by local party members as the Green candidate for the seat. Voting records offer him both encouragement and a warning.

But in the Camden council elections in May, the borough the constituency is in, the Greens won 28.8 percent throughout its wards to Labour's 38.8, taking seats in Starmer's own patch for the first time.

Al Jazeera spoke to political scientists and election analysts regarding whether Polanski has a realistic path to Westminster. A Green win would be a 'surprise'.

Since Polanski became Green Party leader a year ago, it has achieved some success in taking backing from Labour's left.

While the party is at present polling as high as 20 percent nationally, that includes a surprise by-election victory in Greater Manchester.

For that to change, he remarked, the current prime minister and Labour leader, Andy Burnham, would have to see his "honeymoon period" end swiftly. A "disastrous budget" on October 28 could do just that, he continued. He additionally stated the timing of the by-election is key.

"If Burnham has a good party conference in Liverpool (in late September), the honeymoon should continue until that budget at least; the afterwards the by-election, the trickier for Labour. They will want a quick contest."

Burnham came to power after nine years as mayor of Greater Manchester and arrived untainted by scandals.

In an August YouGov survey, 46 percent of Britons had a favourable opinion of Burnham.

In contrast to Starmer's lawyerly caution, Burnham brings a more down-to-earth, outsider style that seeks to cut through Westminster politics, an approach that Polanski has echoed. Polanski's history at play.

While he states he has lived and worked in the area for years, polanski's critics have remarked he would look parachuted in.

Polanski informed Camden New Journal, "I have lived and worked in this community over numerous years. I know it well, and I love it".

"It represents so plenty of of the things that produce London so special. I am so excited by the prospect of representing this place in Parliament, " he is quoted as saying.

But Tonge remarked Polanski is seen "as too left-wing by some voters who prefer the safer Labour option".

For context, the so-called "Burnham bounce" Labour is revelling in may additionally hamper Polanski's chances, he stated.

Notably, the Green leader's political history may additionally stand in his way, John McTernan, political secretary to former Prime Minister Tony Blair, informed Al Jazeera, pointing out that Polanski first stood in the constituency in 2015 as a Liberal Democrat, winning 96 votes in a Camden council by-election.

He additionally had to apologise earlier this year over a council tax problem on his houseboat, with a Green Party spokesperson saying: "Zack apologises sincerely for the unintentional mistake".

He afterwards admitted he had not voted in May's local election, saying he had been moving and "fell short of time" to register at his new address. Greens may have 'peaked': Expert.

Meanwhile, the Greens have never been here before. From 2010 to 2024, they had just one MP.

That changed in February when the Greens won the Gorton and Denton by-election. Hannah Spencer, a local plumber and Green councillor, won 40.7 per cent of the vote in an area Labour had represented since 1931.

It marked the Greens' first-ever parliamentary by-election win, their highest by-election vote share by a margin of 30 points. The win ushered in their first MP in the north of England.

While Labour recorded its worst London local result since 1968, in May, throughout London, they went from 18 council seats to 279, taking six boroughs and winning their first directly elected mayors in Hackney and Lewisham. Nationally, the party won 587 seats, its highest ever.

Meanwhile, the Greens have momentum on their side but may have "peaked", remarked Tonge.

McTernan remarked Polanski should be wary of conflating this year's successes with evidence of his own popularity. He should instead see them as dissatisfaction with Starmer and a "message sent by progressive voters" that they didn't want him.

Notably, the August YouGov survey additionally indicates that just 19 percent of Britons now have a favourable opinion of Polanski, down seven points from his peak in April.

McTernan remarked putting Polanski forward may hamper the Greens as "by-elections often punish candidates perceived as focused on their own self-importance".

He pointed to Clacton, where Nigel Farage, leader of the far-right, anti-immigration party Reform UK, resigned his seat in July against the backdrop of scrutiny of his finances and then recontested it.

With the main parties boycotting that election, the satirical candidate Count Binface, a comedian who campaigns wearing a bin on his head, took 26.7 percent of the vote, the highest share ever won by a novelty candidate in a British parliamentary election.

Taken together, the developments around can the Green Party's Polanski take on Labour and win Starmer's old point to a situation that is still moving, and the coming days should bring more clarity.