Can US, Middle Eastern powers unite Libya 15 years after Gaddafi overthrow?

Fifteen years since the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi in Libya began, and with civil strife leading to the downfall of what was once one of Africa's wealthiest countries, a number of actors are seeking to end the civil war and reunite the country.

Key points

• Under Massad Boulous, US President Donald Trump's African and Middle Eastern affairs adviser, and father-in-law to Tiffany Trump, Washington is intensifying efforts to reunite the country.
• Gaddafi was eventually captured and killed in October 2011, 42 years after he first seized power in a military coup that overthrew King Idris.
• Last month, Foreign Affairs Minister, Hakan Fidan, met with Saddam Haftar in Ankara.
• On Wednesday, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met with Khalifa Haftar in Cairo and discussed unification discussions.
• The UN began formal mediation efforts in 2020 under the UN Backing Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).

Among them are the US, which has commercial interests in Libya's oil fields. After more than a decade of fighting between two rival authorities for control of the country, qatar, Egypt and Turkiye are additionally pushing for a return to "One Libya".

When thousands of individuals in the port city of Benghazi took to the streets to protest against Gaddafi's more than four decades of absolute power, the Libyan uprising erupted during the Arab Spring.

Violence against the demonstrations pushed the protesters into an armed rebellion against Gaddafi's rule, with a civil war starting between the two sides.

Notably, a United Nations Security Council resolution authorised an international military intervention force – led by NATO members, the United States, United Kingdom and France – to enforce a no-fly zone and ensure the protection of civilians in Libya. This bombing campaign pushed back Gaddafi's forces from Benghazi and aided the rebels in seizing territory.

After Gaddafi's death, a power vacuum emerged, with multiple groups – and their allied militias – competing for power.

Control of the country is now split between two rival administrations: the UN-recognised Administration of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dheibah, and the eastern, Tobruk-based administration backed by Khalifa Haftar and his self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA).

Meanwhile, the GNU is recognised by the UN and other countries, and officially has authority in the capital and western Libya.

Under Gaddafi, Haftar was exiled in the US for two decades where he holds citizenship.

His forces control vast resource-rich lands in the east, including the strategic port city of Benghazi, reportedly with the backing of Russia.

In practice, the UN began formal mediation efforts in 2020 under the UN Backing Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). This roadmap advocates for a three-track strategy that includes unifying the two rival administrations, presidential and parliamentary elections, and hosting national dialogue meetings.

For context, the US was a key mediator behind the scenes, and in May 2021, appointed Ambassador Richard Norlan as Special Envoy to Libya, to lead high-level discussions between the two sides. What is the US's new plan?

Under Massad Boulous, US President Donald Trump's African and Middle Eastern affairs adviser, and father-in-law to Tiffany Trump, Washington is intensifying efforts to reunite the country. But this can only be achieved if both sides agree to form a single administration.

According to leaked details, Trump's initiative centres on the promise that if the rival governments cooperate, the US would encourage American investment in Libya's sizable oil fields. This comes as the Libyan Central Bank. It is attempting to finance both authorities, sounds the alarm over the dire economic situation.

While Tripoli has international legitimacy, Haftar's forces control the oilfields and terminals.

Notably, the US is additionally proposing a power-sharing agreement that would see Dheibah continue to lead the administration while Haftar's son and LNA army chief, 35-year-old Saddam Haftar, serves as president.

There are obvious opportunities for US energy firms and economic and political incentives for European countries in a unified and stable Libya.

They include stopping irregular migration from Libya and other North African countries to the EU.

Some criticise the US-led plan as lacking input from the Libyan individuals. The accord, some say, could entrench the power of political dynasties. It might be best for long-term stability in Libya.

There are signs that Haftar's camp, at least, is on board with the US plan. Saddam Haftar, whose father, Khalifa, was based in Virginia until 2011, reportedly met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in DC in July.

Experts attribute the ongoing mediation efforts to the unified national budget of 2026, signed in April – the first in more than a decade.

Nevertheless, there are still no negotiations or signs of a unified administration forming.

Turkiye, which earlier deployed troops to backing the GNU, has additionally created efforts to mediate between the two sides and is pushing a 'One Libya' policy.

Last month, Foreign Affairs Minister, Hakan Fidan, met with Saddam Haftar in Ankara. Earlier this month, Fidan travelled to both Tripoli and Benghazi for high-level discussions with Dheibah and Khalifa Haftar.

Meanwhile, the Egyptian administration has traditionally cooperated with Haftar's Tobruk administration. It is just throughout the border.

While Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad travelled to Tripoli, earlier this month, Dheibah visited Cairo.

Qatar has largely backed the UN mediation channels in Libya: the UNSMIL and the UN roadmap for peace.

While it has good relations with the GNU, Qatar seeks stabilisation efforts led by Libyan parties and elections.

In April, Qatar and other states welcomed the unified budget for 2026. A statement issued by Qatar, Egypt, France, Germany and a number of others called on all parties in Libya to follow the UN roadmap to "advance a Libyan-led political process leading to unified governance and national elections."

For now, can US, Middle Eastern powers unite Libya 15 years after Gaddafi overthrow? Remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.