Chiefs vs. Broncos betting preview: Props, picks for MNF game tonight

Chiefs vs. Broncos betting preview: Props, picks for MNF game tonight.

Key points

• USA TODAY Sports' Sam Cardona-Norberg and Madison Tenenbaum 'overreact' to some of the best games from Sunday's Week 1 slate.
• Kansas City has failed to cover in six consecutive Mahomes starts dating back to last season, and he's just 1-8-1 ATS in his last 10 divisional starts.
• Bo Nix is healthy after the ankle injury that concluded his postseason, and Sean Payton upgraded the offense by adding Jaylen Waddle alongside Courtland Sutton.
• NFL Week 1 Overreactions: Giants, Harbaugh win on SNF, Bears look for real.
• Since Payton arrived, Mahomes has thrown only three touchdown passes against four interceptions in four meetings with the Broncos despite attempting at least 38 passes each time.

USA TODAY Sports' Sam Cardona-Norberg and Madison Tenenbaum 'overreact' to some of the best games from Sunday's Week 1 slate. Well, so much for easing Patrick Mahomes back into things.

Nine months after tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee, Mahomes will start Monday night against Denver.

Naturally, his first assignment is one of the nastiest defenses in football.

Meanwhile, the Broncos piled up a franchise-record 68 sacks last season and have beaten the Chiefs in four of their last five meetings, with the lone loss coming by just two points at Arrowhead. Now Mahomes returns from major surgery without the benefit of a single preseason snap.

Oh, and he'll be doing it without starting left tackle Josh Simmons against a defense that led the NFL in sacks. What could go wrong?

Mahomes practiced fully during the week and has been cleared to play, so there's no reason to question whether the Chiefs believe he's physically ready. Whether he immediately looks like Patrick Mahomes is another matter. Especially against this defense. The pick: Broncos +2.5 (-105). I'm not predicting Kansas City's demise.

While the Broncos could take a step backward after winning the AFC West, I think the Chiefs rebound from last year's 6-11 disaster and return to the playoffs. But that's a conversation for another day.

This is regarding Monday night, and Denver enters it with considerably fewer questions.

Bo Nix is healthy after the ankle injury that concluded his postseason, and Sean Payton upgraded the offense by adding Jaylen Waddle alongside Courtland Sutton. More importantly, the Broncos are remarkably healthy entering Monday night.

That's quite a contrast to the uncertainty surrounding Mahomes, particularly against a defense capable of making quarterbacks move. Maybe he's completely fine. Maybe the nine-month recovery becomes another chapter in the Mahomes-isn't-human story. I'm making him show me.

And, for all of Mahomes' historical dominance, the recent betting numbers aren't exactly screaming Chiefs.

Denver owns the defensive personnel to create this ugly and only needs to stay within a field goal. Getting 2.5 points? Heck, I'm expecting an outright upset. The pick: Under 43.5 (-108).

Here's where Andy Reid comes into the equation. Why ask Mahomes to play superhero immediately?

Kansas City continued reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III to become its lead back, giving Reid every reason to establish the run, emphasize quick throws and minimize unnecessary exposure to Denver's pass rush. That's not exactly a recipe for a track meet. Neither is the matchup on the other side.

Steve Spagnuolo has consistently created life challenging for Nix. This person threw only one touchdown throughout 75 attempts against Kansas City last season. Denver doesn't need Nix chucking it all over the place, either.

Payton can lean on his defense, protect his quarterback and try to turn this into the type of uncomfortable divisional game we've seen plenty of times before. And recent history suggests Denver can keep Mahomes from taking over.

So is this: Chiefs divisional games are 15-3 to the under over the last three seasons, falling below the closing total by an average of 7.1 points per game.

Two excellent defensive coordinators. A quarterback returning from major knee surgery. Another who struggled in this matchup last season. And two offenses with every reason to stay patient. I'll take my chances with defense. Share your feedback to support improve our site!

For now, chiefs vs. Broncos betting preview: Props, picks for MNF game tonight remains the part of the story worth watching, and further updates are likely as more details are confirmed.