Could El Niño mean there are no Atlantic hurricanes this year?

BySimon King Lead Weather Presenter.

Key points

• With a particularly robust El Niño forecast, the US National Hurricane Center in May predicted a total of eight to 14 named storms.
• But, this year marks the latest date on record since the start of the satellite era (1960s onward) where no hurricane has formed in the North Atlantic.
• This would create the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season the only one in the satellite era without a hurricane.
• There were, nevertheless, four named tropical storms which formed in September: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna.
• In the historical Atlantic hurricane database, there has not been a year without a hurricane recorded since 1914.

For the first time in more than 30 years, a hurricane has not formed in the Atlantic throughout September – normally the most active month for hurricane activity.

Meanwhile, the eerily quiet season continues and with just two months left, there is an increasing possibility that no hurricanes will develop at all.

Meanwhile, the biggest reason for this is El Niño. It traditionally stifles activity in the Atlantic but brings a particularly active season in the eastern North Pacific.

Notably, the Atlantic hurricane season was predicted to be quieter than normal since of this.

With a particularly robust El Niño forecast, the US National Hurricane Center in May predicted a total of eight to 14 named storms. Of those, three to six were predicted to become hurricanes, with one to three becoming major hurricanes.

September is typically the most active month for tropical storm and hurricane activity.

All but Edouard stayed out in the open waters of the Atlantic.

Notably, the National Hurricane Center suggests there is no sign of any tropical storm activity or hurricane over the next week at least.

Forecasters at Colorado State University. This person additionally monitor activity, suggest the robust El Niño is projected to disrupt wind patterns throughout the Atlantic and "likely result in below-normal activity" over the next two-weeks.

As the typical peak of the season has passed and is now on a downward trend until 30 November, a season without a single hurricane is looking increasingly feasible.

In the historical Atlantic hurricane database, there has not been a year without a hurricane recorded since 1914. Nevertheless, this was pre-satellite monitoring so it is impossible to say with certainty that none formed. How does El Niño affect tropical development?

While El Niño is the natural warming of the tropical Pacific, it can disrupt weather patterns around the globe.

As wind patterns shift during an El Niño, upper winds over the Atlantic growth and this leads to more wind shear, where wind changes rapidly with height.

Rose wind shear rips apart thunderstorms, preventing them from growing into tropical storms or hurricanes.

Meanwhile, the Pacific typically becomes more active during El Niño since the sea surface temperatures here are much higher, combined with more favourable wind patterns.

Meanwhile, the warmer waters offer storms more energy to grow into tropical storms and hurricanes.

This year, temperature records have already been broken in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific, with daily sea surface temperatures now exceeding the previous record set during the particularly robust El Niño of 2015.

There have so far been 17 named storms in the basin including nine hurricanes, seven of which were major.

In terms of the amount of energy these storms have produced – known as the Accumulated Cyclone Energy – this season is around two and half times more active than normal at this point.

El Niño is predicted to continue to strengthen with forecasts suggesting it will reach its peak in November or December.

In short, could El Niño mean there are no Atlantic hurricanes this year? Is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.