Decoding GDP growth: The good, the bad & the data

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Key points

• The announcement of a stellar showing by the Indian economy in the first quarter, with expansion coming in at 7.8%, sparked intense debate.
• ** Data, charts, text and reporting by TANAY SUKUMAR, ANOUSHKA SAWHNEY, KIRTIKA SUNEJA; Design: SAMIR KUMAR Add Now!
• All this could be contributing to households appearing to be reporting poor consumer sentiment in RBI surveys after the West Asia war began.
• Gold rush on Dalal St as regional jewellers bid to be the next Tanishq.
• The Indian economy has plenty of moving parts, and indicators that track them come in myriad forms.

Nifty23, 346.4075.81. Motilal Oswal Midcap Fund Direct-Growth. The Economic Times daily newspaper is available online now. Decoding GDP expansion: The good, the bad & the data. Decoding GDP expansion: The good, the bad & the data. ET BureauLast Updated: Sep 20, 2026, 11: 49: 00 PM IST.

ET drew up a longlist of more than five dozen indicators throughout all key themes of the economy- from the external sector and markets to farm health and jobs. We then applied one filter to each to narrow it down: does an indicator say something that others don't already say?

Meanwhile, the announcement of a stellar showing by the Indian economy in the first quarter, with expansion coming in at 7.8%, sparked intense debate. While plenty of stated this had been borne out by upbeat, high-frequency proxy datasets, others noted the gains were not being felt on the ground. ET speaks with economists and looks at the trajectory of a broad set of macroeconomic indicators to decode the puzzle: how well is the economy doing, really? HOW WE CHOSE THE INDICATORS.

Meanwhile, the Indian economy has plenty of moving parts, and indicators that track them come in myriad forms. ET drew up a longlist of more than five dozen indicators throughout all key themes of the economy- from the external sector and markets to farm health and jobs. We then applied one filter to each to narrow it down: does an indicator say something that others don't already say? Where a single number masks more than it reveals, we went a level deeper, e.g., we favoured some subindices over well-known indices. Each segment had to tell a complete story-consumption, for example, was paired with credit to flag if spending is debt-led. No such curation can ever be perfect, but the final list has 20 indicators throughout five segments. The choice of timeframe for each chart was dictated by indicator-specific needs and limitations in data availability and comparability. Industry and business activity.

Employment, job quality & wages Live Events. WHAT THE DATA SHOWS.

Not all the indicators we chose for this special feature go into the computation of India's GDP. But those that don't may still contribute towards shaping the sentiment that expansion is not being felt on the ground.

On the external front, trade momentum is healthy, with export orders expanding (though slower than before); nevertheless, volatile foreign flows and faster import expansion are constraints.

Business-related indicators largely remain solid: credit demand has been accelerating rapidly, capacity utilisation has finally crossed the critical 75% threshold, corporate sales did well in Q1, and a key business expectations index remains above the 100 mark.

Labour conditions are improving gradually, with better employment quality (salaried workers over selfemployed and casual labour). But wage expansion may not be to everyone's satisfaction as inflation stays high and a sizeable share of young Indians in the prime employable age remain on the lookout for work.

On the consumption side, car and twowheeler sales expansion have been a bright spot, and tractor sales (a proxy for rural demand) have mostly printed healthy numbers. Nevertheless, industrial output of consumer non-durables, an indicator for rural demand and household buying power, has seen sagging expansion. Creditled spending is solid but has worried some commentators.

While agriculture, the biggest employer, is significantly slower, lastly, expansion is broadening: non-farm sectors remain robust. The poor southwest monsoon rainfall isn't good news either.

** Data, charts, text and reporting by TANAY SUKUMAR, ANOUSHKA SAWHNEY, KIRTIKA SUNEJA; Design: SAMIR KUMAR Add Now! Gdp dataGDP expansion IndiaIndia gdpgdp debateIndian economyQ1 GDPIndia GDP Q1. Gdp dataGDP expansion IndiaIndia gdpgdp debateIndian economyQ1 GDPIndia GDP Q1. Nobody's funds? Notably, the fortune Indian families forgot they had.

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In short, decoding GDP growth: The good, the bad & the data is the central thread here, and readers can expect follow-up reporting as the picture becomes clearer.